China News Service, Beijing, March 18 (China News Business Reporter Li Jinlei) China's economic data for January and February were released on the 18th. Many data exceeded expectations, and foreign media paid close attention to the report.

Experts interviewed believe that China's economy, which has started steadily, is likely to have a good start in the first quarter.

Foreign media paid attention to a number of data that were better than expected

　　After the release of China's first economic report card this year, many foreign media immediately noticed that many economic data exceeded expectations.

　　Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" reported under the title "China's industrial production data in the first two months of this year was better than expected."

　　The Wall Street Journal of the United States pointed out in a report titled "China's Economic Activity Recovers Moderately" that in the first two months of this year, China's economic activity rebounded moderately, with industrial production and investment growth exceeding market expectations.

　　From the perspective of industrial production, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 7.0% year-on-year from January to February, 0.2 percentage points faster than December last year.

The growth rate was better than the median forecast of 5.2% among economists polled by Bloomberg and higher than the 5.0% forecast by analysts polled by Reuters.

　　From an investment perspective, fixed asset investment grew faster than market expectations.

Fixed asset investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year from January to February, 1.2 percentage points faster than the previous year.

This is better than the 3.2% forecast.

　　In addition, the export data was much higher than external forecasts.

The total import and export of goods from January to February was 6,613.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.

Among them, exports increased by 10.3%.

The latest customs survey found that the proportion of companies planning to expand exports and imports increased by 23 percentage points, the highest since last year.

　　"The economic performance continues to pick up for the better, with a stable start." The National Bureau of Statistics commented on the performance of economic data in the first two months.

　　The reason for the smooth start, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Guangdong Securities, told Sino-Singapore Finance reporters was mainly due to the early implementation of policies, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, and the additional issuance of government bonds last year, which were used in the first quarter of this year.

In terms of economic momentum, the main reasons are that the service industry continues to recover, exports exceed expectations, infrastructure investment continues to increase, and high-end manufacturing continues to upgrade.

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed that when it comes to the manufacturing industry specifically, the reason why production growth has accelerated is that in addition to the base effect, improving external demand is also an important driving factor.

Judging from the accelerated growth of consumer goods manufacturing, domestic consumer demand has also improved to some extent.

   Data map: Zhejiang private new energy vehicle companies are booming in production and sales.

Photo by China News Service reporter Wang Gang

The economy is likely to get off to a good start in the first quarter

　　The 2024 Government Work Report clarifies the policy orientation and key tasks. Among them, incremental policies such as expanding the deficit to 4.06 trillion yuan, promoting large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods, and issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will make progress while maintaining economic stability. Provide more "horsepower".

　　"There is a high probability of a good start in the first quarter, with GDP growth around 5.5%-6%." Luo Zhiheng predicted.

　　However, he reminded that what needs to be paid attention to is that the drag of real estate on the economy is still relatively obvious, and it is necessary to further optimize real estate policies to ensure supply, promote demand and stabilize housing prices.

　　Wen Bin believes that since the beginning of the year, local governments have comprehensively stimulated demand and accelerated the construction of affordable housing, and have regulated and prioritized rescue projects through financing coordination mechanisms. With the implementation of relevant policies and effective results, the real estate market is expected to gradually find the bottom.

　　The National Bureau of Statistics stated at a press conference on the 18th that judging from the economic performance in the past two months, although the environment facing economic development is still complex and severe, the economic fundamentals continue to improve, and positive factors that promote economic recovery are accumulating. Strengthening, coupled with the continued and effective macro policies, achieving the expected economic growth target of around 5% is conditional and supportive, and can be achieved through hard work.

　　Lin Yifu, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, believes that China has a lot of room for technological innovation and industrial upgrading. With a high savings rate and abundant investment resources, it is entirely possible to grow by more than 5%.

(over)