Daniel Viaña Madrid
Madrid
Updated Tuesday, March 12, 2024-14:05
The Bank of Spain has raised its growth forecast for this year by three tenths, to 1.9%, but maintains that the Spanish economy will continue to grow below 2%.
And not only this year, but
it will do so throughout the entire triennium 2024-2026
.
The organization, in its new macroeconomic forecasts, therefore resists exceeding that threshold of 2% growth that the
Government and the Ministry of Economy of Carlos Body
do trust in reaching.
In fact, not only the Executive, but also
BBVA Research
pointed out last week that the economy would exceed that level.
But the research service led by Ángel Gavilán, the most powerful in the country, believes that the positive factors that have given an additional boost to growth, such as the upward statistical revisions of the INE, the greater growth in the fourth quarter of last year or the Lower energy prices will not be enough to get to that point.
And what's more, what may happen starting next year is that the data
will be even lower
than those estimated until now, which indicate that the economy will grow 1.9% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.
The reason is that the Government will fail to meet the 3% deficit target.
Specifically, the estimate is that the deviation this year will be 3.5%.
This, given the recovery of European fiscal rules, will force Spain to make an adjustment that "
would be a downward risk to growth
," as Gavilán explained during the presentation of the new macro forecasts.
"In 2025, 2026 and 2027 the average fiscal adjustment would be between four and six tenths of GDP.
An average structural adjustment average of five tenths of GDP
," added the General Director of Economy and Statistics.
Unemployment and migratory flows
Regarding the evolution of the unemployment rate, the Bank of Spain maintains that unemployment will continue to remain above 11% in the period analyzed.
This, however, collides with the "high dynamism" that the organization observes in the labor market, and the explanation for this situation must be sought in "
migratory flows
."
"The unemployment rate will continue to reduce in the coming years, although at a slower rate than in previous years, due to both the expected moderation in the rate of job creation and the expected growth of the active population - which, in line with What has been observed in recent years will be driven by a high dynamism in immigration flows. As a result of all this, the unemployment rate
will remain above 11% in 2026
," the organization explains in its document.
"Migratory flows help consumption, eliminate bottlenecks and help the GDP, but
they make the unemployment rate fall less
," Gavilán summarized on this same aspect.
And regarding inflation, the BdE anticipates that it will continue to reduce in the coming months.
At an international level, Gavilán has indicated that a "virtuous disinflation" is occurring, and in Spain he also notes that the figure "fell to 2.9% in February."
For 2024 as a whole, the forecast figure is 2.7%, a figure that will be reduced to 1.9% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.