Interview
War in Gaza: facing Biden, Netanyahu “is especially interested in one thing: keeping his coalition”
Benyamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday, during an interview with
Politico
, that he intended to carry out the ground invasion of the Gaza Strip as far as Rafah.
A statement full of distrust towards Joe Biden.
The American president declared on Saturday that the Palestinian city constituted a “red line” not to be crossed, in addition to openly criticizing the management of the conflict by the Israeli Prime Minister.
The Franco-Israeli political scientist and historian Ilan Greilsammer analyzes this coldness in the relations between the two leaders.
Meeting between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, October 18, 2023. AP - Miriam Alster
By: Victorien Thomas
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RFI: Does this verbal joust between Netanyahu and Biden mark a turning point in relations between Israel and the United States?
Ilan Greilsammer:
I don't think this is a turning point in general relations between the United States and Israel.
It is much more linked to the personality of the two leaders.
Joe Biden is campaigning.
There are a number of American states that play a large role in the victory or defeat of a presidential candidate, and which have a significant proportion of inhabitants of Arab origin or of Muslim faith.
To get their vote, Biden must break away from this image of almost unconditional support for Israel.
Read alsoWar in Gaza: dialogue at daggers drawn between Joe Biden and Benyamin Netanyahu
And for Benyamin Netanyahu, what is his interest in this defiance of Biden's injunctions to stop the fighting in Gaza?
Netanyahu sticks to his guns.
He doesn't talk about post-war Gaza.
He is especially interested in one thing: keeping his coalition.
Thanks to her, he has 64 deputies out of 120 in the Knesset (the Israeli Parliament, Editor's note).
If one of the parties in his coalition is unhappy with his policies and leaves his government, he falls and there will be elections.
This is the last thing Netanyahu wants.
According to polls, his popularity is extremely low among Israelis.
He wants to hold on at all costs.
Which means not changing much: continuing the war, trying to annihilate Hamas, recovering the hostages… So the attitude of the two characters is quite predictable given their own interests.
Netanyahu must notably count on the support of the far right within this coalition. Is it she who tips the scales towards harsh management of the conflict?
The coalition is partly based on the far right.
If the far right is unhappy, finds that Netanyahu is not aggressive enough, they could leave his government, and that would be the end of it for him.
So it's true that there is a weight of all these people: Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, etc... It's really terrible for many Israelis.
It is these extremists who are preventing Netanyahu from doing something sensible and understandable.
This is the situation.
The big question is: will Israel enter Rafah despite the US president's warnings?
Precisely, is there a risk that the United States will slow down its logistical support to Israel if the army invades Rafah, this “red line” drawn by Joe Biden?
It's difficult to envisage.
I believe that the United States will show its dissatisfaction.
Less or no logistical support at all, I don't think that can happen.
During the interview given on Sunday to
Politico
, the Israeli Prime Minister announced an end to armed fighting within 4 to 6 weeks.
Is this still a strategy?
It is certain that one of the ways for Netanyahu to let go and not deteriorate relations too much with the United States, but also with the Europeans, is to say that the war is ending.
Will the conflict actually end in such a short time?
That remains to be seen.
On the Israeli side, a heavy national price was paid during the October 7 attacks.
The war cannot end without Hamas losing its governmental and military capabilities in the Gaza Strip.
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