Advance sales overdraft, the effect of the long Spring Festival holiday, and intensifying price wars... the domestic auto market moved forward "against the wind" in February.
Data from the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Car Association") shows that in February this year, the retail sales of the passenger car market declined year-on-year and month-on-month, with independent, joint venture, and luxury brands seeing double-digit declines in retail sales. .
On March 10, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, issued an article saying: "The important reason for the downturn in the auto market in February this year was the difference in consumption time before the holiday brought about by the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the price war quickly heated up, forming a large wait-and-see trend. Combined with the March The expectation that policy details will be released in March has led to a slightly weaker sales trend in February. However, this also laid the foundation for the auto market to resume growth in March."
Double reduction in wholesale and retail sales
Although the cumulative retail sales of domestic passenger cars in the first two months of this year increased by 17% year-on-year, February was a cold month.
Data show that in February this year, the domestic passenger car market retailed 1.095 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 21% and a month-on-month decrease of 46.2%.
Among them, the retail sales of independent brands, which were the main growth drivers, were 620,000 units, down 13% year-on-year and 45% month-on-month; the retail sales of luxury cars were 160,000 units, down 21% year-on-year and 35% month-on-month; and the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands were 330,000 units, down year-on-year. As high as 31%, a month-on-month decrease of 51%, and the retail sales of the three major brand subdivisions all experienced zero-digit declines.
While the number of terminals has declined, the wholesale volume of manufacturers has also shrunk accordingly.
In February this year, passenger car manufacturers nationwide wholesaled 1.295 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 38%.
A relevant source from the Passenger Car Association revealed: “Affected by the Spring Festival, manufacturers’ sales in February were in the middle of the month’s 10-year history.”
"The important reason for the sharp month-on-month and year-on-year declines in the auto market's retail sales in February this year is the difference in pre-holiday consumption time caused by the Spring Festival factor." Cui Dongshu said that in January this year, the auto market overdrawn some sales, thus affecting the sales before the Spring Festival in February, and then the price after the Spring Festival The rapid escalation of the war has caused the market to form a large wait-and-see trend. Combined with the expectation of the introduction of policy details in March, it has formed a sales trend that is not conducive to February.
Faced with both wholesale and retail declines in the auto market in February, automakers chose to control the pace of production capacity.
According to statistics, domestic passenger car production in February this year was 1.23 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 26.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 39.1%.
"At the beginning of the year, many car companies made great efforts to stabilize production and reduce inventory." A relevant person from the Passenger Car Association said that in February this year, manufacturers' cautious production and pre-holiday promotions boosted retail sales, driving the inventory of manufacturers and channels to decline, and causing the manufacturer's output to be lower than the wholesale of 65,000 vehicles. , the manufacturer’s domestic wholesale sales were 98,000 units lower than the retail sales.
The auto market encountered "headwinds" in February, and the surging new energy auto market also entered a brief period of adjustment.
Data show that in February this year, the domestic pure electric passenger car market wholesale volume was 269,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8%; the plug-in hybrid vehicle market wholesale volume was 117,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%.
However, extended-range passenger cars are on the rise, with wholesale sales rising to 61,000 units in February, a year-on-year increase of 147%; the market share increased to 14%, a year-on-year increase of 9%.
"Extended-range passenger vehicles have effectively made up for the range anxiety of pure electric passenger vehicles, so the market share continues to increase." Cui Dongshu said that the development of new energy vehicles in China presents a comprehensive and combined development route, including pure electric, plug-in hybrid and extended-range vehicles. Diversified lines bring wider adaptability.
"Hot" price war
The cooling of the auto market in February was also directly reflected in the quantitative data of various auto companies.
Data show that there were 28 passenger car companies with sales of more than 10,000 units in February this year, a decrease of 5 from the previous month.
Among them, only one company has a year-on-year growth rate of more than 100%, and 19 companies have a negative year-on-year growth rate.
At the same time, among the top ten car companies in the passenger car retail rankings, Chery Automobile, ranked sixth, benefited from the continued growth in export volume and became the only car company on the list to achieve positive year-on-year growth.
BYD, which ranked first, saw sales decline by 32.8% year-on-year.
Under the pressure of sales, BYD chose to let the "Glory" model group end, setting off a price war in the auto market.
Among them, BYD Qin, Song, Yuan, Seal, Han and other main models have all launched "Glory" versions, further lowering the starting price. Among them, the official price of BYD Qin PLUS Honor Edition has dropped to 79,800 yuan.
Subsequently, many car companies entered the market, and the "hot" price war in the car market resumed.
Cui Dongshu said bluntly: "During the recovery period after the Spring Festival, the auto market has encountered an intensification of price wars, which has led to a more serious wait-and-see trend and put considerable pressure on the auto market."
According to incomplete statistics, more than 20 brands have participated in price cuts so far, including Tesla, Changan Deep Blue, SAIC-GM-Wuling, etc.
Not only has the official price dropped, but the terminal market selling price has also continued to adjust.
Fan Yu, deputy secretary-general of the Industry Coordination Working Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Circulation Association") said: "Judging from the transaction prices in February this year, dealers believed that the price reduction rate reached 27.8%. Among them, affected by holidays, dealers Promotional price reductions are generally adopted, and transaction prices showed a downward trend in February."
"The price war in the national passenger car market is still continuing this year." Cui Dongshu said that after several years of rapid growth, this year is a critical year for new energy vehicle companies to gain a foothold, and competition is destined to be very fierce.
From the perspective of fuel vehicles, the falling cost of new energy and the "same price of petrol and electricity" have put great pressure on fuel vehicle manufacturers. The product updates of fuel vehicles are relatively slow, the degree of product intelligence is not high, and they rely more on preferential prices. and market resources to continue attracting customers.
It is worth noting that with the simultaneous efforts of independent brands in "gas and electricity", Japanese brands have been forced into a corner.
Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that the retail share of Japanese brands dropped to 14.4% in February this year, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4 percentage points.
Among the top ten car companies in the passenger car retail rankings, only GAC Toyota and Dongfeng Nissan entered the list in February this year, ranking eighth and tenth respectively. FAW Toyota, GAC Honda and Dongfeng Honda missed the top ten. Among them, the terminal sales of GAC Honda and Dongfeng Honda in February this year both fell by more than 50% month-on-month.
Among the top ten car companies in passenger car retail rankings in February last year, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng Nissan, and FAW Toyota ranked sixth, eighth, and tenth respectively.
Faced with market pressure, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily learned that the terminal selling prices of Japanese models have also continued to drop, with discounts of more than 40,000 yuan for B-class cars.
In addition, GAC Toyota even chooses to directly "cut off" new cars when they are launched.
In February this year, GAC Toyota's ninth-generation Camry was officially launched. The first 2.0L hybrid model was added, with a starting price that is 30,000 yuan lower than the 2023 eighth-generation Camry 2.5L hybrid model.
Growth potential for millions of vehicles
Although the auto market was weak in February this year, it also laid the foundation for a return to growth in March.
"Since all walks of life quickly returned to normal operations after the Spring Festival holiday, the month-on-month growth in production and sales in March this year will be relatively rapid." According to the relevant person in charge of the Passenger Car Association, a large number of new cars were launched after the Spring Festival, and at the same time, driven by the national consumption promotion policy , many provinces and cities have introduced corresponding policies to promote consumption, and the full resumption of offline activities such as auto shows will also accelerate the gathering of popularity.
At the same time, due to the recent low prices of lithium carbonate and other products, it is also conducive for manufacturers to launch new more cost-effective new energy models, and the attention of the auto market will continue to heat up.
In addition, Fan Yu predicts: "Sales volume in the first quarter will achieve more than double-digit growth year-on-year."
In addition, a new round of trade-in will further promote the growth potential of the auto market this year.
The Passenger Car Association said that based on 15 years as the judgment value for the scrapping of non-commercial vehicles, models produced in 2008 will enter the concentrated scrapping period around last year.
According to the ownership estimates released by the Ministry of Public Security at the beginning of this year, 7.56 million cars should have been scrapped last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.85 million.
"If we calculate that passenger cars account for 80% of the total number of cars, there will be 6 million passenger cars." Cui Dongshu said that during the period of rapid growth in new cars that began in 2009, preparations should be made for the scrapping of passenger cars this year. With a good foundation, I believe that the auto market this year will still have good room for steady growth driven by the demand for new purchases, additional purchases, and replacements.
Faced with the growing space in the auto market, new rounds of subsidy policies have also been implemented in various places.
The "Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-In of Consumer Goods" reviewed and approved by the Executive Meeting of the State Council mentioned that a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods should be promoted, and the trade-in of consumer goods such as automobiles should be actively carried out to create a scale effect of replacement.
It is understood that Shanghai, Shandong, Chongqing and other places have introduced relevant policies, and nearly 30 car companies have actively responded and launched trade-in subsidy policies.
A relevant person from the Circulation Association said: "This policy is a major benefit to the auto market. This year, China's auto market will continue to strengthen with policy support. It is expected that consumption promotion policies such as trade-in and scrap renewal will drive market growth for about 1.5 million passenger cars. quantity."
Beijing Business Daily reporter Liu Yang and Liu Xiaomeng