Pablo R. SuanzesBrussels Correspondent

Brussels Correspondent

Updated Monday, March 11, 2024-16:35

  • Execution One in every five euros of European funds remains unallocated due to lack of candidates

Despite the delays, the technical extensions and all the time gained by maximizing the flexibility of the regulations, the

negotiation on the fourth disbursement to Spain

of the Next Generation Funds continues to be choked and will not end on March 20.

That is the day on which the deadline for the European Commission to rule on the Spanish request officially expires, verifying one by one all the milestones, investments and reforms committed to access 10 billion euros.

Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni's team cannot give its approval, not at least to the disbursement for a full payment, because the Government failed to move forward with one of the most relevant and delicate issues, the unemployment benefit reform, after the vote against Unidas Podemos will overthrow it in Congress.

So assuming that it will not be completed, since

there is also another long series of entrenched issues

as well, there are only two scenarios: requesting a new extension to attempt

an express processing of the labor legislation

, now that the Amnesty Law seems on track and would take into account theory the vote in favor of Junts.

Or ask for it, but knowing that given the impossibility of this milestone being included, there will yes or yes be

a partial payment

, and you will have to digest the possible political stigma.

This Monday in Brussels, the Minister of Economy Carlos Body

, and the second vice president,

Yolanda Díaz

, are present

.

And for obvious reasons this topic is one of the main ones in conversations with institutions.

It is clear that unemployment benefits cannot be reformed in the next nine days.

It is the thorniest, most sensitive issue, but these days the technicians are analyzing more than a dozen

milestones

to amend.

After a fairly agile process during the first two and a half years,

the fourth disbursement has become complicated for the Spanish Executive

.

The negotiations are slow, more tense.

The longest and most frictional meetings.

And for the first real time, the deadlines seem impossible.

SPEECH CHANGE

The Government knows it.

Last month, in the same place,

Corps

said it was "premature" to talk about partial payments.

And today he has admitted that "both scenarios are possible", in reference to full funds or not, downplaying their importance, consequences or economic or political impact.

""Regarding the total payment or whether it will come immediately or in the coming weeks, I believe that it is only an element of temporary deferral of the financing that, at the end of the day, in the medium term, has no impact.

The important thing is that we manage to meet these milestones and objectives," defended the head of Economy.

The sources consulted are not perfectly aligned in the interpretation of what is happening and will happen.

A part of the Executive throws some ball out

and says that if there will be no final evaluation on March 20, it is because the European Commission needs more time, since the technical work to analyze all the milestones of the Spanish plan is very complicated.

That things are progressing in Madrid and that it was Gentiloni himself who has already asked for one more month.

The Italian has ruled out that scenario.

It can happen, but it hasn't happened yet.

From another part of the Government, they indicate that

everything depends on the deadlines, yes, but not only on the evaluation, but also on the Spanish Congress

.

This entire process is pending what happens this week with the Amnesty Law and the support of the Junts deputies, both for the 2024 Budget and for the unemployment benefit reform.

It would take almost a miracle to put it all together.

The validated legislation would have to be carried out and the Brussels technicians would evaluate and accept it in record time.

That would require an extension of at least one month.

It is not impossible, but more than complicated, because there are still many other flaws.

"The Commission has until March 20 to give its assessment regarding the fulfillment of the more than 60 milestones and objectives of the fourth payment, which are of great technical complexity and we are working together on this, exhausting the deadlines to be able to have a positive assessment in this regard," explained the minister. "The deadline expires next week and no extension has been decided," Commissioner Gentiloni confirmed.

"We will move forward and achieve a substantial reform that is vital for our country and that would allow the beneficiaries of the subsidy to receive 90 euros more per month," Vice President Díaz promised before the meeting with her European counterparts.

That is why the Ministry of Economy will wait until the last minute.

First, to see if the circle could be squared.

But if not, as seems most likely, to minimize damage on two different levels.

On the one hand, because the regulations of the Next Generation Funds say that if a partial disbursement is approved because a country has not completed all the pending milestones, a stopwatch automatically starts counting, giving six months to approve everything that is pending.

With the risk that if it is not achieved in six months, those funds will be lost.

Exactly how much that would be is not quantified.

There are formulas approved depending on the importance of the milestone, but

it is not clear if it would be tens or hundreds of millions of euros.

But in addition to that reason, there is that of minimizing political stigma.

There are a couple of countries that have already received partial payments, without much noise.

But for the country that boasts from day one of being at the forefront of the

Next Generation

process , of having created the standards, of having been the first to receive three disbursements,

it would be an admission of failure, however small, not to have obtained go ahead with the promised reforms

.

And for the vote against a party from the coalition itself.

If partial disbursement were inevitable, Corps wants to be able to argue before the Commission that the milestone is on track, that it is a matter of a few weeks, and ensure that the total of 10,000 million is received soon.

In two sections, but quite close together and

before the European elections

.