After the "full moon" cancellation of the purchase limit for houses above 120 square meters, Guangzhou's real estate market began to recover.

According to statistics from local agencies, although the overall property market in Guangzhou is still sluggish in the first two months of this year, the market heat has continued to rise recently, especially in the 8th week of this year (February 19 to February 25) and the second half of 2023. The heat peak is almost flush.

　　Industry insiders said that with the recovery of marketing efforts, the driving effect of the New Deal on the Guangzhou real estate market has begun to appear, which is reflected in the market transaction structure, with transactions in the central area picking up quickly.

With a number of projects in the central area preparing to "launch new projects" in March, the market recovery in the central area is expected to accelerate.

　　Lifting purchase restrictions on large apartments releases a wave of improved demand

　　"After Guangzhou cancels the purchase restriction on large apartments, I plan to buy a big house." Zhang Mei (pseudonym), a home buyer in Guangzhou, said that her original house has not been sold yet because the new policy allows one-to-buy-one, so she plans to sell it. Buy a house in advance.

Since the purpose of changing her house is to live in it, the current market fluctuations have little impact on her. She is determined to improve her living quality.

　　On January 27, 2024, the General Office of the Guangzhou Municipal Government issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing Policies for the Stable and Healthy Development of the City's Real Estate Market" (referred to as the "Notice").

　　The "Notice" clarifies that within the purchase restriction area, the purchase of housing with a construction area of ​​more than 120 square meters (excluding 120 square meters) is not included in the purchase restriction scope; after residents in the purchase restriction area rent out the house or list it for sale, it will not be counted as the number of units held. wait.

This means that Guangzhou is the first to lift purchase restrictions on units above 120 square meters, allowing "one-for-rent, one-for-one, one-for-one purchase".

Guangzhou has undoubtedly become the first first-tier city to divide the scope of purchase restrictions by area, opening a channel for Guangzhou's non-household improvement people to purchase housing.

　　According to the latest reports from local media, there are currently cases where houses in Guangzhou are available for rent or are listed for sale, and those who buy houses with a built-up area of ​​more than 120 square meters can be treated as the first house.

　　Why did Guangzhou cancel the purchase restriction policy for large apartments?

58 Anjuke Research Institute believes that starting from August 2023, the demand for improvement will gradually increase, users’ interest in house hunting for this type of products will increase, and the proportion of house hunting attention for products with an area of ​​more than 120 square meters will continue to increase.

In February 2024, the popularity of house-hunting for houses with an area of ​​120 square meters or more accounted for 43%, the highest value in the past 12 months. The house-hunting enthusiasm increased by 9% month-on-month; the house-hunting enthusiasm for products of 120 square meters and below increased by 6% month-on-month. .

This is mainly due to the implementation of Guangzhou's "recognition of houses but not loans" policy in August 2023, which provides room for replacement and improvement and releases part of the market's improvement demand.

　　In fact, in the past two years, Guangzhou has continued to be at the forefront of first-tier cities in optimizing and adjusting the property market. For example, in 2023, among first-tier cities, Guangzhou was the first to test various types of loose real estate policies, and has successively launched the "recognize a house but not subscribe for a loan" ", reducing down payment ratios and loan interest rates, relaxing purchase restrictions in non-core areas and other policies.

　　The same will be true in 2024.

On January 5, 2024, Guangzhou’s Liwan District issued the city’s first batch of room tickets, marking the official implementation of Guangzhou’s room ticket policy.

The highlight of the housing ticket is that it broadens the resettlement channels. The expropriated person can freely choose the appropriate property type, unit type, area, location, etc. in the "housing supermarket" according to their own needs and preferences according to the prescribed time, which satisfies the expropriated person to be more flexible and Diverse individual needs.

　　The person in charge of a local real estate company told the Beijing News reporter that continuous policy optimization has further unleashed the demand for home purchases in Guangzhou and also promoted the development of high-quality housing.

　　Guangzhou’s property market continues to rise for three consecutive weeks

　　"Recently, I have been looking at houses. However, I am hesitant between buying a second-hand house and buying a new house. In fact, each has its own advantages." Zhang Mei said that she could clearly feel that in March, the real estate market became more popular than before. .

The most obvious thing is that there are more people viewing the house.

　　There are many people who feel the same as Zhang Mei.

So, what is the effect of Guangzhou’s optimization policy?

According to agency statistics, although the market improvement in the first two months of this year was limited, the market has clearly gained momentum recently.

　　58 Anjuke Research Institute said that from the 6th to the 8th week of this year, the popularity of the Guangzhou property market continued to rise for three consecutive weeks. The 8th week (February 19th to February 25th) reached the peak this year, which is consistent with the housing search in the second half of 2023. The heat peak is almost flush.

From the perspective of specific projects, the TOP3 popular apartment types with a large increase in popularity in the eighth week are mainly concentrated in three-bedroom and four-bedroom apartments.

Among them, the demand for four-bedroom properties in Shum Yip Yize Mansion and China Resources Land Tianhe Run Mansion has greatly increased.

Judging from the popularity of housing searches in different area segments in the 11 districts, customers are most interested in products with an area of ​​more than 120 square meters in Huangpu and Panyu, followed by Zengcheng, Tianhe and Baiyun.

　　Chen Xueqiang, research director of the South China Branch of the China Index Research Institute, pointed out that judging from the effects of the New Deal, the Guangzhou market transaction data did not increase in the week after the New Deal was released. The transaction in the week after the Spring Festival was also relatively flat and has not yet returned to the level before the New Deal was released.

Entering March, Guangzhou market transactions rebounded slightly in the first week, which was also the highest weekly transaction level this year.

One month after the New Deal was released, 2,377 new commercial housing units were sold in Guangzhou, which is still far behind the 4,112 units before the New Deal was released, mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday.

　　According to statistics from the Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association, in the second week after the Spring Festival (February 26-March 3), Guangzhou's second-hand housing rebounded significantly. The number of second-hand housing online signings in each administrative district was 2,086, rising for three consecutive weeks, and this data This is the third highest weekly figure this year.

　　Chen Xueqiang added that after Guangzhou canceled the purchase restriction policy for units above 120 square meters, it will still take some time for market transactions to reflect.

On the one hand, the new policy was released just before the Spring Festival. Most people are already planning to return home or travel, and their home purchase plans have slowed down.

On the other hand, the "Spring Festival month" is the traditional off-season for transactions. The pace of developers' sales has slowed down significantly, and new launches and additional projects have also been greatly reduced. In addition, due to the influence of factors such as the wait-and-see mood of home buyers, there has been no change after the introduction of the New Deal. It did not lead to a significant rebound in market transactions.

　　The effects of the new deal are expected to be visible in March

　　"The policy effect must be there." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, said that on the one hand, Guangzhou's central area has complete public service facilities and relatively low commuting costs. It is favored by high-income people, and the supply of new houses is also catering to it. The preferences of high-income groups include large flats and landscape resources. On the other hand, high-income groups are also willing to buy houses in central areas, considering their children's education, self-residence or retirement.

Moreover, as a first-tier city and the economic, cultural and educational center of South China, Guangzhou attracts high-income people in the province to buy houses.

At the same time, Guangzhou also attracts wealthy people from all over the country with its superior climate environment, active entrepreneurial atmosphere, and concentration of private enterprises.

　　At the same time, Chen Xueqiang also predicts that the effects of the policy will be apparent in March.

　　Regarding the market trend in the future, especially in March, market analysts from Hefu Research Institute believe that with the recovery of marketing efforts, the driving effect of the New Deal on the Guangzhou market has begun to appear, which is reflected in the market transaction structure, with transactions in the central area picking up quickly.

In March, a number of projects in the central area were preparing for "new launch", of which new projects accounted for 70%, including Yuexiu Guanyue, China Railway Construction·Shekou Shekou Xipai Tianhexu, Haizhu Zhonghai Dajing and other high-quality area improvement projects, which means that The market recovery in the central area is expected to accelerate.

　　It is worth noting that this year’s government work report also contains some new proposals in the housing-related content, such as improving long-term mechanisms for risk prevention and control, meeting diversified demand for improved housing, adapting to new urbanization development trends, and changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market.

Looking specifically at the Guangzhou market, as the market's demand for improvement increases, Guangzhou's lifting of the purchase limit for houses above 120 square meters is undoubtedly a good medicine to boost the market.

In this regard, Li Yujia said that in the more than ten years before 2022, more than 70% of Guangzhou’s residential land supply was in the periphery.

Nowadays, there is a large inventory in the peripheral property market, house prices have fallen, and expectations of rigid demand have weakened. Their ability and motivation to buy a house are insufficient.

What can support and stabilize the Guangzhou property market depends on the improvement of the people.

　　Beijing News reporter Yuan Xiuli