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Wind turbines in Lower Saxony

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Julian Stratenschulte/DPA

According to the Federal Audit Office, Germany is lagging behind its ambitious energy transition goals.

“In order to ensure a secure, affordable and environmentally friendly electricity supply, the federal government must take immediate and targeted changes,” writes the federal authority in its latest energy transition report.

But she is “not on track”.

The federal government has set itself the goal of covering at least 80 percent of gross electricity consumption from renewable energies by 2030.

And that with increasing demand.

Because of the electrification of the transport and heating sectors, electricity demand is expected to increase by around a third by 2030 - to 750 terawatt hours.

To achieve this, the Federal Ministry of Economics must expand renewable energies in accordance with the legally defined target paths, writes the Court of Auditors.

“However, it is foreseeable that the expansion goals will not be achieved.”

The Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) was only able to allocate 50 percent of the target volume for onshore wind turbines in 2023.

Instead of the prescribed 12.84 gigawatts, it was only 6.38 gigawatts.

In order to be back on the legal target path, it would have to allocate 16.46 gigawatts of new capacity for onshore wind turbines in the current year 2024.

“That is not realistic,” writes the Court of Auditors.

Electricity generation from photovoltaics and wind systems is also subject to fluctuations, which can lead to supply gaps.

Therefore, the addition of sufficient controllable back-up capacities by 2030 is of central importance.

However, the Ministry of Economic Affairs' most recently presented power plant strategy falls short here.

“The ten gigawatts of gas power plants envisaged will not be enough,” writes the Court of Auditors.

And the design of an additional planned capacity mechanism for further performance is still open.

“This does not ensure that the necessary back-up capacities are available in time.”

“Realistic” calculations regarding security of supply

There would also be significant delays in network expansion.

The Court of Auditors complains that the backlog here is now seven years and 6,000 kilometers.

Without the appropriate lines, green electricity cannot be sufficiently distributed across the republic.

Another problem is the Federal Network Agency's calculations on security of supply - which the Court of Auditors describes as nothing less than "unrealistic".

“In its monitoring report for the years 2025 to 2031, the BNetzA only considers a best-case scenario,” writes the Court of Auditors.

“After that, the expansion goals will certainly be achieved.”

“The scenario is very unlikely,” the Court of Auditors’ analysis continues.

"It differs significantly from actual developments."

The Ministry of Economic Affairs accepts that threats to the secure supply of electricity are not visible in a timely manner and the need for action is recognized too late.

"The purpose of monitoring as an early warning system to identify such needs for action is actually being undermined."

High network expansion costs put a strain on electricity prices

The Bonn inspectors also address the costs of converting the electricity system to renewable energies.

They clearly contradict Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck.

With regard to the currently high energy costs in Germany, he had always claimed that the expansion of renewables would lead to a reduction in electricity prices.

However, the officials of the Court of Auditors calculate that the network expansion costs of 313.7 billion euros by 2045 are not included in Habeck's calculations.

“Low electricity production costs for renewable energies – contrary to what the BMWK states – by no means guarantee a cost-effective electricity supply,” says the special report.

So far, the BMWK has not included the system costs, which also have to be taken into account, in its presentation to the public.

The Ministry of Economics explained to the BRH that the increasing system costs are offset by savings on fossil fuels.

The Court of Auditors proposes a reform of the taxes, levies and levies included in the electricity price.

According to the BRH, the reduction in electricity tax decided by the federal government is not enough.

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