Daniel Viaña Madrid
Madrid
Updated Wednesday, March 6, 2024-12:01
BBVA Research announced this Wednesday a notable revision in the growth forecast for this year: the research service has raised its GDP estimate for 2024 by six tenths, bringing the figure to 2.1%.
To carry out this review, the organization led by Jorge Sicilia and Rafael Doménech.
On the one hand, there are the revisions in the growth of the INE and the data observed during the fourth quarter, that is, the best performance of the economy.
Furthermore,
the lowering of energy prices
gives up to four tenths more rebound, according to BBVA Research estimates.
To this we must also add "the fact that monetary policy is going to begin lowering
rates
earlier than expected and with more intensity, which could contribute a tenth more," they explain.
And, "in addition, fiscal policy is being somewhat more expansive than expected, while the execution of NGEU funds reaches cruising speed," they add.
All of this would give that growth figure of 2.1%, which is even higher than what the Government itself foresees since the Ministry of Economy now headed by Carlos Body estimates a figure of 2%.
That figure seemed too optimistic according to the vast majority of estimates from different analysts and national and international organizations, but now BBVA Research is beginning to change that context.
The exercise of this relevant study service, however, also contemplates a sharp reduction in the growth expected for next year: it
reduces it by five tenths, from 2.5% to 2%
.
"On the contrary, in 2025 with respect to the forecast of a few months, we cut GDP as a consequence of lower European demand and a fiscal policy that will necessarily have to be contractionary to comply with the European fiscal rules that have already been approved," they explain