The two major economic engines are sluggish and Europe's economic recovery is struggling

　　The internal and external environment of the European economy lacks positive energy, and economic growth is struggling.

Due to the sluggish performance of the two major economic engines of Germany and France, the overall recovery of the European economy continues to be weak.

EU institutions believe that the current key shortcoming is that "Europe's own money cannot serve the European economy." The instability of internal and external markets and various uncertainties are also constraining Europe from mobilizing funds on hand.

From the perspective of the external environment, under the coercion of the United States, the EU is gradually approaching the edge of the protectionist swamp of decoupling from some economies.

Europe's economic recovery requires the protection of development sovereignty.

　　Entering the new year, the European economic recovery trend has not shown a new outlook.

Due to the sluggish performance of the two major economic engines of Germany and France, the overall recovery of the European economy continues to be weak.

In the latest economic forecast report released by the European Commission recently, the economic growth expectations of the EU and the Eurozone this year have been lowered.

Although the inflation level that has plagued the European economy for a long time has declined, which has weakened the risk of a technical recession in the European economy to a certain extent, due to multiple uncertainties, it seems difficult for EU institutions to make money "alive" for the time being, and the prospects for recovery are difficult. Easy words.

　　The winter economic forecast report recently released by the European Commission shows that the economic growth prospects of the European Union and the Eurozone may continue to be weak in 2024.

Compared with last quarter's economic forecast analysis, the European Commission lowered the EU economic growth rate from 1.3% to 0.9%, and the euro zone economic growth rate from 1.2% to 0.8%.

Some observations believe that in addition to the significant inhibitory effect of the previous sharp tightening of fiscal policy on economic growth, important reasons for the continued weakness of the European economy include the decline in domestic consumption and market stability.

In other words, the internal and external environment of the European economy lacks positive energy, and economic growth is struggling.

　　In the process of thinking about how to boost residents' consumption, EU institutions believe that the current key shortcoming is that "Europe's own money cannot serve the European economy."

During the recent informal meeting of Eurozone member states held in Ghent, Belgium, European Central Bank President Lagarde listed a set of figures to various countries: currently about 250 billion euros, or 1.8% of Europe’s nominal GDP, are flowing from European countries. The currency continues to flow to the United States to illustrate "where has the euro gone?"

In addition, Lagarde also said that just to achieve the goal of reducing European greenhouse gas emissions by 90% before 2040, the EU faces a funding gap of approximately 800 billion euros every year.

　　Europeans have money but don’t want to spend it.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire bluntly stated that "European savings are sleeping."

Le Maire pointed out that the total savings of European residents currently reach 35 trillion euros, and a large amount of funds have been "sleeping" in bank accounts. The huge funds that should be used to contribute to European economic growth, research and employment can only be used to contribute to European economic growth, research and employment. Play its small role in tallying savings figures.

　　In addition, the instability of domestic and foreign markets and various uncertainties are also important factors that hinder Europe from mobilizing funds on hand.

Within this year, the European Parliament and many member states will face elections. Potential changes in government agencies will have an impact on the geopolitical ecology inside and outside Europe. The EU and its member states may also face a series of adjustments in their domestic and foreign policy considerations. Continued economic The downturn will definitely aggravate voters’ disappointment, which will also have a backlash in the next series of elections. Therefore, it is not ruled out that policies such as the economy, climate change, immigration, and energy that are closely related to the market will have unexpected changes. Local government investment and financing plans are faced with the choice of "votes" or "development".

At the same time, the US election on the other side of the Atlantic will also affect the European market.

At present, with the rise of far-right parties in France, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and other countries, the EU will inevitably face more differences on a series of development issues in the future. It is not surprising that the situation of "having money but not being able to spend it" will occur.

　　Some local analysts in Europe believe that the key to ensuring the resilience of the European economy lies in whether Brussels can maintain its independence.

Previously, under the coercion of the United States, the European Union gradually stepped onto the edge of the protectionist swamp of decoupling from some economies, breaking the development balance of "technological advantages + global markets". However, in order to follow its allies, Europe "abolished its martial arts". "At the critical moment, the "Inflation Reduction Act" of the United States, which insists on defending economic and trade hegemony, happened to be introduced, accelerating the outflow of European industries and capital, causing its economic recovery to find itself in trouble.

From this point of view, the European economy, which continues to be weak in recovery, does need more positive energy to protect development sovereignty.

　　Chen Bo

Chen Bo