Promote the recovery of income growth and look at fiscal policy efforts from the "account book"

　　Recently, reports on the 2023 budget implementation and 2024 budget drafts of various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have been made public.

The budget report summarizes the implementation of the previous year's budget, makes arrangements for the current year's budget, and clarifies relevant policies and measures.

What was the fiscal revenue situation of various regions last year, and what is the expected trend of revenue and expenditure this year?

How will we promote fiscal reform and prevent fiscal risks this year?

We can get a glimpse of the situation from the “account books” of local governments.

　　Promote income recovery and growth

　　Benefiting from the economic rebound and the implementation of large-scale value-added tax refunds in 2022 to lower the base and other factors, national fiscal revenue will show restorative growth in 2023.

Data released by the Ministry of Finance show that the national general public budget revenue will exceed 21 trillion yuan in 2023, an increase of 6.4%.

From a local perspective, the income of the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions increased by 6.7%, 6.9%, 10.7% and 12% respectively, and all 31 provinces achieved positive growth in fiscal revenue.

　　Budget reports from various regions disclosed the fiscal revenue situation in 2023, showing that fiscal revenue has achieved sustained restorative growth.

For example, Guangdong Province’s general public budget revenue was 1.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.3%, ranking first in the country for 33 consecutive years.

In addition, the general public budget revenue of Beijing, Hunan Province, Hubei Province, and Liaoning Province increased by 8.2%, 8.3%, 12.5%, and 9.1% respectively.

　　“In the face of various difficulties in 2023, proactive fiscal policies will be stepped up to improve efficiency. On the one hand, restorative growth in fiscal revenue not only ensures fiscal sustainability, but also provides important support for the implementation of macro policies; on the other hand, Fiscal policy has always maintained strong expenditure intensity, and with the effective combination of multiple fiscal tools, fiscal policy has played an important role in economic recovery and social stability." said Li Xuhong, deputy dean and professor of the Beijing National Accounting Institute.

　　Bai Yanfeng, a professor at the School of Finance and Taxation at the Central University of Finance and Economics, analyzed that from a total perspective, local fiscal revenue generally showed restorative growth in 2023; from a regional structure perspective, the growth rate in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions has gradually increased, indicating that my country's regional fiscal revenue The economic gap is gradually narrowing, high-quality development features are obvious, and the huge development potential contained in the regional economy is gradually released.

　　In 2024, driven by the continued economic recovery, fiscal revenue is expected to maintain restorative growth.

For example, Guangdong Province stated that as the effects of a series of economic stabilization policies issued by the country and the province continue to be released, the province's economy continues to rebound and improve, laying the foundation for fiscal revenue growth.

Fujian Province also emphasized that the province's economy has generally recovered and improved while consolidating its foundation and building up its talents. Economic operations have continued to recover, and high-quality economic and social development has provided important support for fiscal reform and development.

　　At the same time, as expenditure remains rigid, the "tight balance" situation is still obvious.

The Guangdong Provincial Budget Report pointed out that the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased, and some enterprises are facing operating pressures. Coupled with the implementation of structural tax reduction and fee reduction policies, these will affect fiscal revenue growth, and the pressure to increase fiscal revenue is still great. .

As a central province, Jiangxi Province also pointed out that it faces greater pressure to increase fiscal revenue, the revenue structure and quality need to be optimized, and the "tight balance" of revenue and expenditure is prominent.

　　The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that proactive fiscal policies must be appropriately intensified and improve quality and efficiency.

Faced with the overall situation of "tight balance" in fiscal revenue and expenditure, how do localities implement the requirements of "appropriately intensifying, improving quality and efficiency" of fiscal policies?

　　Guangdong Province proposed that in terms of appropriate strengthening, it mainly focuses on strengthening the coordination of fiscal resources, using fiscal policy tools in a combination, appropriately expanding the scale of fiscal expenditures, ensuring that key expenditures are in place, and promoting the continued recovery of the economy.

In terms of improving quality and efficiency, the main thing is to promote the legalization, scientificity, standardization and standardization of financial management, so as to better exert the effectiveness of fiscal policies.

According to the budget arrangement, the province's general public budget revenue will increase by 3% and general public budget expenditure will increase by 1% in 2024.

　　Jiangxi Province proposed to scientifically and rationally arrange revenue expectations, organize fiscal revenue in accordance with laws and regulations, and effectively implement tax and fee reduction policies.

At the same time, expenditure arrangements are coordinated and structured to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of fiscal expenditures.

According to the budget arrangement, the province's general public budget revenue in 2024 will increase by 4% compared with the 2023 implementation number, and the province's general public budget expenditure will increase by 5.4% compared with the 2023 summary budget number.

　　At the same time, local budget reports have made specific arrangements in terms of strengthening people's livelihood protection, giving full play to the role of special bonds, and implementing structural tax and fee reductions.

　　"In 2024, although we are still facing many structural contradictions, the endogenous driving force for economic growth in various regions is constantly increasing. The economic rebound and positive trend will help further promote the balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure and help proactive fiscal policies to achieve better effectiveness. ." Li Xuhong said.

　　Promote reforms in key areas

　　The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized “the need to plan a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform.”

“Reform” is an important keyword in budget reports from various places this year.

　　In terms of budget management, various localities have deployed a series of reform measures.

For example, Beijing proposed to “adhere to reform and innovation and continue to deepen budget management reform.”

Among them, budget performance management is placed in an important position, including formulating working standards for full-cost performance analysis in key areas, strengthening linkage between cities, districts, streets (townships), and consolidating the effectiveness of full-cost performance budget management reform; adding selected secondary budgets Units piloted the preparation of overall performance targets; units were guided to strengthen the main responsibilities of project management and improve the effectiveness of pre-assessment work.

　　Hunan Province proposed to deepen the zero-based budget reform, starting from "zero", and all expenditures should be based on the principle of "deciding first and setting money later", and preparing budgets realistically; strengthening full-scale budget management, in-depth promotion of special funds, cross-department funds, financial Allocations and unit funds are coordinated and integrated to concentrate financial resources on major tasks.

　　"At present, we need to further promote the performance reform of local budgets. The 'big head' of our country's fiscal expenditures lies in local governments. Whether it is the requirements of tight fiscal times or the requirements of high-quality development, we must continuously improve the performance of fiscal expenditures and truly spend fiscal funds." In the key areas of improving people's livelihood and promoting high-quality development." Bai Yanfeng said.

　　Promoting the reform of the fiscal system below the provincial level is also a key component of local budget reports.

For example, Hunan Province proposed to appropriately strengthen provincial fiscal powers and expenditure responsibilities, standardize cross-regional revenue division methods, adjust the park fiscal system, improve transfer payment allocation methods, improve incentive and restraint mechanisms to guide high-quality development of cities and counties, strengthen township finance and Village account management stimulates and mobilizes the enthusiasm and initiative of all parties to ensure that city and county financial operations are stable, long-term and sustainable.

　　Sichuan Province proposed to advance the reform of the fiscal system at the provincial level in an orderly manner, study and improve the fiscal management system of expanding power and strengthening counties, and further rationalize inter-governmental fiscal relations.

Establish a mechanism to link the distribution of transfer payments with the economic and financial development performance of cities and counties, and strengthen the orientation of incentives and constraints.

Adhere to project-based, competitive and amplified projects, and accelerate the transformation of financial support methods.

　　2024 marks the 30th anniversary of my country’s tax-sharing reform in 1994, and is also a critical year for promoting the implementation of the “14th Five-Year Plan” outline.

Bai Yanfeng believes that it is necessary to promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system at the provincial level according to local conditions, continue to release the dividends of fiscal system reform, mobilize the enthusiasm and initiative of local fiscal reform and development, and consolidate the institutional foundation for the sustainable operation of our country's fiscal system.

　　“With the deepening advancement of Chinese-style modernization and changes in the domestic and international economic and social environment, it is of urgent practical significance to actively plan a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform. Among them, the reform of the fiscal system at the provincial level is a key link. On the one hand, it will help It will resolve the current risks in local finance and eliminate obstacles to local economic development; on the other hand, it will help lay a solid foundation for high-quality macroeconomic development." Li Xuhong said.

　　Effectively prevent and resolve risks

　　The Central Economic Work Conference requires continued and effective prevention and resolution of risks in key areas.

It can be seen from the budget report that all localities coordinate development and security, deploy prevention and resolution of financial risks, and strengthen the investigation of hidden dangers and risk prevention and control in key areas.

　　The "three guarantees" at the grassroots level are related to the vital interests of the people and the normal operation of the grassroots level, as well as sustainable economic development and overall social stability.

Hubei Province lists "resolutely holding the bottom line of the 'three guarantees'" as the first item of the main principles of budget preparation in 2024, clearly emphasizing finance for the people and benefiting the people, and the new financial resources will further tilt towards people's livelihood and social undertakings, focusing on strengthening basic, We will provide inclusive and comprehensive people's livelihood protection and effectively improve the "three guarantees" guarantee capabilities at the grassroots level.

　　Sichuan Province proposed to maintain the line of defense for safe operation, implement closed-loop preparation of "three guarantees" budgets, precise allocation of funds, and conduct penetrating monitoring, strengthen early warning reminders and emergency response, to ensure that "three guarantees" risk events do not occur; strengthen grassroots treasury monitoring and dispatching, and ensure Promote the disposal of existing temporary payments and prevent fund payment risks.

　　In recent years, our country has persisted in reducing existing debts and curbing increases, and has made solid progress in preventing and resolving local government debt risks.

Recently, the State Council executive meeting pointed out that in accordance with the deployment requirements of the Party Central Committee and through coordinated efforts from all parties, local debt risks have been overall alleviated, laying a solid foundation for the next stage of work.

　　Next, how can local governments further effectively prevent and resolve local debt risks?

Guangdong Province proposes to strengthen local government debt management, manage and use new bond funds well, scientifically make reserve and issuance arrangements for new bond projects, and improve the efficiency of the use of bond funds; strengthen post-investment management of special bonds, and repay the principal in full and on time to resolutely curb new hidden debts, prevent and resolve government debt risks, and consolidate the results of the pilot program to eliminate hidden debts across the region.

　　"Long-term mechanism" has become the focus of emphasis in many places.

For example, Hubei Province has deployed to promote the construction of a large fiscal system with debt reduction as the starting point, and explores the preparation of "one account, one table" to provide scientific support for the study and judgment of the government's financial resources, risks and debt space; improve the long-term mechanism for debt reduction, Strictly implement the established debt measures, actively and steadily control the increase and eliminate the existing debt.

Build a full life cycle management system for government bonds to achieve closed-loop management of “borrowing, managing and repaying”.

　　“How to effectively and reliably resolve local debt risks is an important challenge currently faced by some regions. On the one hand, we must maintain the bottom line of risk and standardize debt management. On the other hand, we also need to innovate the combination of fiscal and financial instruments and revitalize assets to actively resolve hidden debts. , and at the same time, we must take into account the overall situation of local economic stability and development, and strive to solve existing problems during development." Li Xuhong said.

　　Zeng Jinhua

Zeng Jinhua