“The regulator’s decision was expected, since the current growth rate of consumer prices is still far from the target values,” he emphasized.
The analyst shared data that weekly inflation from February 6 to February 12 in Russia was 0.21%, since the beginning of February prices have increased by 0.32%, and since the beginning of the year - by 1.18%.
“Taking into account the Bank of Russia’s inflation target for 2024 at 4.5%, the weekly rate of price growth should correspond to 0.08%, which is 2.6 times lower than the current rate,” Chernov added.
According to him, in 2024 the key rate will fall to the range of 13.5-15.5% per annum.
“As before, no rate cuts are expected before the second half of the year. But taking into account the current growth rate of consumer prices and the deterioration of the Central Bank’s forecast for the rate for 2024-2025, now our forecast for the beginning of the regulator’s monetary policy easing cycle is shifted to the fourth quarter of 2024,” concluded RT’s interlocutor.
Previously, the Central Bank kept the key rate at 16%.