GDP = Gross Domestic Product from October to December last year will be announced on the 15th. According to private sector forecasts, although the growth rate will be positive for the first time in two quarters, personal consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, is expected to remain almost flat due to high prices.
On the 15th, the Cabinet Office will announce preliminary figures for GDP from October to December last year.
The average forecast of 38 private economists compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research, a public interest incorporated association, shows that the real growth rate compared to the previous three months is an annualized increase of 1.28%.
If the growth rate is positive, it will be the first time in two terms.
The main factor was ``exports,'' and in addition to the large growth in automobiles, domestic consumption by foreign tourists, who are included in ``exports'' in statistics, was also seen to be strong.
On the other hand, "personal consumption," which accounts for more than half of GDP, is expected to remain roughly unchanged at an average increase of 0.08% compared to the previous three months.
Many believe that due to the impact of high prices, consumption not only of food but also of services such as travel and eating out has been sluggish.
In addition, on the 15th, the GDP for the past year will also be announced.
According to an estimate by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Japan is expected to be overtaken by Germany and fall to fourth place in the world in terms of nominal GDP converted to dollars, so the results on the 15th will be closely watched.