China News Service, Beijing, February 13 (Zhang Wenhui, Wang Lichen) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released an update to the World Economic Outlook Report, raising its global economic growth forecast in 2024 to 3.1%.
Chen Fengying, former director and researcher of the Institute of World Economics at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, recently pointed out in an interview with China News Service that 2024 is a critical year for the stabilization of the world economy, but there are still many variables.
Chen Fengying said that the current world economic situation and environment are in a "state of disconnect". The situation is relatively stable, but the environment remains complex.
Among them, the stabilization of the situation is mainly reflected in the following aspects: First, international inflation is currently falling, the "consumer pain index" has declined, and investors' expectations for the future will also rebound. Second, due to the impact of falling inflation, the Federal Reserve may take the lead in cutting interest rates around June this year, and the European Central Bank may cut interest rates at the end of 2024 or early 2025. Declining financing costs will be beneficial to the development of emerging markets. Third, the world has entered a "super election year". The United States, Europe, India, and Russia are all facing general elections. The ruling parties hope to perform economically and release the continuation of loose fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy in order to be re-elected.
However, in the face of the complex and ever-changing international environment, Chen Fengying believes that the development of the global market is still serious, mainly manifested in three aspects: First, geopolitical instability will directly affect the geo-economy, and the Red Sea incident, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, etc. Commodity prices have a direct impact; second, the tension in international relations coupled with the "super election year" has led to the internationalization of domestic issues and the politicization of economic issues, which will further aggravate the tension in international relations; third, "risk removal" may become long-term. For example, the "de-risking" of the Western economy and the restructuring of industrial and supply chains will affect international trade and investment.
However, Chen Fengying also pointed out that the Chinese economy, the US economy, and the Asian economy are all still recovering steadily, and the world economy can achieve a "soft landing" in 2024. (over)