After the improvement, the specter of a lasting increase in the unemployment rate is likely

2024-02-13T05:09:19.354Z

Highlights: After the improvement, the specter of a lasting increase in the unemployment rate is likely. After two consecutive semesters of increase, France posted an unemployment rate of 7.4% at the end of the second quarter, or 2.3 million people unemployed. According to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, there were 8,000 job losses in the fourth quarter of 2023. Several factors are involved. The pension reform which delays the retirement age will increase the number of seniors in the working population. A quarter of the unemployed should register with France Travail.

It's imminent! At 7:30 a.m. this Tuesday, INSEE will reveal the unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2023. And optimism is not really in order for this highly anticipated indicator. After two consecutive semesters of increase, France posted an unemployment rate of 7.4% at the end of the second quarter, or 2.3 million people unemployed. And everything suggests that the situation will deteriorate further. It is imminent... at 7:30 a.m. this Tuesday, INSEE will reveal the unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2023. And optimism is not really in order for this highly anticipated indicator... After two consecutive semesters of increase, France posted an unemployment rate of 7.4% at the end of the second quarter, or 2.3 million people unemployed. And everything suggests that the situation will deteriorate further. Unemployment returning for a long time? After reaching a historic low in the first half of 2023, unemployment is slowly but surely rising. And the publication of the unemployment rate for the fourth quarter should confirm this deteriorating trend in the labor market. According to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, there were 8,000 job losses in the fourth quarter of 2023 Inevitably, the unemployment rate will follow, estimates economist Eric Heyer. “There are always more young people entering the job market than seniors retiring, you have an active population that is increasing , employment which has declined. So, the difference is unemployment…” Unemployment should even reach 7.9% at the end of the year, according to estimates from the French Economic Observatory (OFCE). Several factors are involved. The pension reform which delays the retirement age will increase the number of seniors in the working population. But also that of the unemployed, since a quarter of them should register with France Travail. The compulsory switch of RSA recipients to France Travail should also increase the number of unemployed. Especially since the economic situation is deteriorating. The Banque de France forecasts less than 1% growth this year. This is an insufficient figure to create jobs, explains Eric Heyer: “We would be at a level of growth which is neutral in terms of employment. And since the active population will increase, this can only lead to an increase in the unemployment rate." So many elements which weaken the objective set by Emmanuel Macron: achieving full employment in 2027, that is to say say falling below the 5% unemployment mark.