The four major first-tier cities have loosened their housing purchase restriction policies, and the industry predicts that the core cities will experience a "Little Indian Spring Market"

　　The Paper reporter Ji Simin

　　Following Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing, the first-tier city Shenzhen also officially announced adjustments to its housing purchase restriction policy.

　　According to the new property market policy issued by the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on February 7, Shenzhen residents have canceled the years of settlement and the years of payment of personal income tax and social insurance. They can buy a house after settling in; the period of payment of social security and personal tax for non-Shenzhen residents has been reduced from 5 years to 3 years. .

　　The industry believes that as core cities continue to optimize property market policies, this part of the urban market is expected to see a "Little Indian Spring" market, which will also have a positive impact on the national market.

　　Shenzhen relaxes property market purchase restriction policy

　　On February 7, in order to better meet residents’ rigid and improved housing needs and promote the stable and healthy development of the Shenzhen real estate market, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice on optimizing the housing purchase restriction policy.

　　This time, Shenzhen has adjusted its purchase restriction policies for registered resident families, non-registered resident families and adult singles (including divorced persons).

　　The notice shows that households registered in Shenzhen (including families with some family members registered as residents in this city) are limited to purchasing two houses, and adult singles (including divorced) registered in this city are limited to purchasing one house; the period of settlement and the payment of personal income tax, social Insurance period requirements.

　　Families and adult singles (including divorced persons) who are not registered residents of this city and can provide proof of continuous payment of personal income tax or social insurance in this city in the three years before the date of house purchase are limited to one house purchase.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the relaxation of Shenzhen’s policies is mainly due to two points: for the population with local household registration, the three-year residence limit has been removed, which means “you can buy a house after settling down”, which increases the value of your household registration. For foreigners purchasing houses, the social security payment requirement has been reduced from 5 years to 3 years, indicating that the policy continues to relax and further lowers the threshold for foreigners to purchase houses.

　　So far, the four major first-tier cities have all adjusted their purchase restriction policies.

　　Judging from the current market in Shenzhen, according to statistics from the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, in January 2024, the number of second-hand houses in Shenzhen was recorded (the number of records refers to the data compiled by the Shenzhen Real Estate Association based on the initiation time of the second-hand house sales contract). (not the final number of transactions and transfers) 4,147 units, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2% and a year-on-year increase of 128.1%. The decline in transaction volume in January was mainly due to the fact that as the Spring Festival holiday approached, some practitioners went home early to celebrate the New Year, which caused a certain degree of decline in transaction volume in the second half of the year.

　　Looking at the new housing market, in January 2024, 1,788 new housing units were sold in Shenzhen, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 30%.

　　Midland Realty National Research Center believes that the relaxation of Shenzhen’s purchase restriction policy will undoubtedly bring more purchasing power to the Shenzhen real estate market and inject more power into the steady recovery of market transaction volume. However, since most citizens have returned to their hometowns to prepare for the New Year, the effectiveness of the policy will not appear until after the new year at the earliest. Among first-tier cities, Shenzhen's property market policy has the greatest breadth, with all administrative districts benefiting from it. Therefore, the summer of the property market this year is expected to be advanced to the ninth day of the lunar month, when citizens return to work.

　　All four major first-tier cities have relaxed purchase restriction policies

　　It is worth mentioning that before Shenzhen, first-tier cities Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing had all adjusted their housing purchase restriction policies.

　　Among them, Guangzhou, on the basis of adjusting the regional scope of the housing purchase restriction policy last year, issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing Policies and Measures for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in our City" on January 27 this year. The new policy clearly liberalized the restrictions on housing with an area of ​​over 120 square meters. Purchase restrictions are imposed, and "rent one, buy one" and "sell one, buy one" are supported.

　　Shanghai further supports non-Shanghai singles in purchasing houses on the basis of the housing purchase policy for talents. The "Notice on Optimizing the City's Housing Purchase Restriction Policy" was issued on January 30 this year. The notice clarified that starting from January 31, non-local residents who have paid social insurance or personal income tax in Shanghai continuously for 5 years or more, You can purchase only one house in areas outside the outer ring (except Chongming District).

　　Beijing has also optimized and adjusted the Tongzhou housing purchase restriction policy that has been implemented for nine years. The Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission and the Tongzhou District Government announced on February 6 that from now on, four types of families in Beijing who are qualified to purchase a house can purchase a set of commercial housing in Tongzhou District. The biggest change in the new policy is that for families who have settled and worked in Tongzhou District, as long as they comply with Beijing's overall purchase restriction policy, the three-year requirement for settlement, social security or tax payment has been cancelled.

　　The industry believes that all four first-tier cities in the country have relaxed housing purchase restrictions. For example, Guangzhou has relaxed its suburban market, namely Panyu Huangpu, Shanghai has relaxed its policies for non-local singles, Beijing has relaxed its Tongzhou sub-center, and Shenzhen The restrictions on local household registration and non-local household registration have been relaxed, which shows that the purchase restrictions have not been completely abolished in various places, but the purchase restrictions have been relaxed to a sufficient extent. This is a characteristic and signal of policy relaxation. Overall, the current policies in core cities are still being advanced gradually, and there is still a lot of room for optimization and adjustment in future policies. The market is unstable and the policies are not stable. First-tier cities may continue to optimize purchase restriction policies; second-tier cities are expected to completely cancel restrictive policies.

　　"Indian Spring Market" will appear in core cities

　　Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, believes that the four first-tier cities have concentratedly adjusted their purchase restriction policies before the Spring Festival. On the one hand, it is based on the relatively weak performance of the property market in the fourth quarter of last year, and on the other hand, it is also based on the property market since January. Still tired of thinking. Moderate adjustments in policies will help boost market expectations, lay the foundation for a good start in the property market in the first quarter of 2024, and create the Indian Summer effect.

　　It pointed out that adjusting the purchase restriction policy on the demand side of first-tier cities has a resonance effect with supply-side risk prevention and the structural reform of the housing supply side represented by the three major projects. Through the effect of the real estate leader in first-tier cities, it is expected to stabilize the second-tier and national commercial housing markets.

　　Regarding the market judgment after the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy, Yan Yuejin believes that in terms of market transaction data, since the relaxation of purchase restrictions has brought new demand for home purchases, the market transaction price is expected to be clearly reflected in the online signing data in March, that is, it will rise significantly. . In terms of price, due to the increase in trading volume or expected increase, the possibility of price stopping or stabilizing has increased significantly. This is the trend or logical point of the subsequent market.

　　The industry also predicts that as core cities continue to optimize property market policies, this part of the urban market is expected to experience a "Little Indian Spring" market, which will also have a positive impact on the national market.