At the beginning of 2023, the fiscal deficit rate will be set at 3%. In order to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and improve disaster prevention, reduction and relief capabilities, the central government will issue an additional 1 trillion yuan in treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of 2023, all of which will be arranged to local governments through transfer payments. Looking forward to 2024, as the effects of macro-control policies continue to be released and high-quality development is solidly promoted, it will lay a solid foundation for fiscal revenue growth, and fiscal revenue will continue to recover.
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The 2023 national accounts were recently released, and a number of data highlight the warmth of people's livelihood. In 2023, the national general public budget expenditure will increase by 5.4% year-on-year. In terms of major expenditure items, social security and employment expenditures increased by 8.9% year-on-year, education expenditures increased by 4.5% year-on-year, science and technology expenditures increased by 7.9% year-on-year, agriculture, forestry and water expenditures increased by 6.5% year-on-year, and urban and rural community expenditures increased by 5.7% year-on-year. The scale of new tax cuts and fee reductions and tax rebates and fee deferrals nationwide exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan throughout the year.
"Among the fields with the leading growth rate, the proportion of the three infrastructure mergers is basically the same as in 2022, reflecting the characteristics of narrow fiscal expenditures being invested more in people's livelihood areas in recent years." Wu Qiying, senior macro analyst at GF Securities, analyzed that compared with the beginning of the year Compared with the target, each sub-item expenditure has basically achieved the predetermined target, among which the proportion of science and technology expenditure, social security and employment expenditure, and urban and rural community expenditure is slightly higher than the target proportion, reflecting the focus of fiscal work for the whole year of 2023.
"Fiscal expenditures will continue to increase in 2023." At a press conference held recently by the State Council Information Office, Vice Minister of Finance Wang Dongwei introduced that at the beginning of 2023, the fiscal deficit rate will be set at 3%. In order to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and improve disaster prevention, reduction and relief capabilities, the central government will issue an additional 1 trillion yuan in treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of 2023, all of which will be arranged to local governments through transfer payments.
Looking forward to 2024, Wang Dongwei said that the basic trend of my country's economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed. "From the perspective of fiscal revenue, as the effects of macro-control policies continue to be released and high-quality development is solidly advanced, it will lay a solid foundation for fiscal revenue growth, and fiscal revenue will continue to grow restoratively. From the perspective of fiscal expenditure, the necessary intensity will continue to be maintained. Transfer payments to local governments will also maintain a certain scale," Wang Dongwei said.
Fiscal revenue in 31 provinces achieved positive growth
Breaking down the national accounts of the past year, our country's fiscal revenue has shown restorative growth. The revenue of the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions has increased by 6.7%, 6.9%, 10.7%, and 12% respectively. The fiscal revenue of 31 provinces across the country has all achieved positive growth. increase.
What is restorative growth? Sun Kunpeng, associate professor at the School of Finance and Taxation at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told reporters from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that restorative growth has two meanings. First, the fiscal revenue base in 2022 is relatively low, resulting in relatively fast revenue growth in 2023. For example, because Due to large-scale tax refunds, value-added tax revenue will be low in 2022. Among various fiscal revenue items in 2023, value-added tax will perform relatively well, while other tax revenue will be generally stable or declining. Second, factors such as the epidemic will subside in 2023, and economic fundamentals will recover, which will bring more fiscal revenue.
Regarding the differences in growth rates between different regions, Sun Kunpeng analyzed that the relatively slow growth rate in the eastern and central regions is not only affected by the relatively fast growth in 2022, but also due to the slowdown in exports to Europe and the United States. The eastern and central regions are more affected. The Northeast region has strong exports to Russia and other regions.
In addition to the growth momentum in fiscal revenue, the quality of fiscal revenue has also improved. Among the national general public budget revenue in 2023, tax revenue will account for approximately 83.6%, tax revenue will increase by 8.7% year-on-year, and non-tax revenue will decrease by 3.7% year-on-year. "The growth rate of tax revenue will exceed that of non-tax revenue in 2023, and the general public budget revenue structure has been optimized." Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Guangdong Securities and director of the research institute, analyzed that the proportion of tax revenue in 2023 will be higher than that in 2022. But it is still slightly lower than 2020 and 2021. He also added that in 2023, the proactive fiscal policy will increase efficiency and focus on precision and more sustainability. In the face of limited revenue growth, especially negative growth in land transfer revenue, a certain expenditure intensity is still guaranteed to promote economic growth and prevent To resolve risks, “the tight balance situation has intensified.”
He noticed that many places have become more cautious about their fiscal revenue expectations for 2024 and have lowered their fiscal revenue growth expectations for 2024. "On the one hand, this is related to the increase in the base number. On the other hand, setting the general public budget revenue growth target slightly lower than the actual GDP growth target can leave room for the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction policies." Luo Zhiheng said.
Help enterprises to bail out and respond to people’s livelihood concerns
From the beginning of the year, some tax policies were clearly extended and optimized, and in the second half of the year, a batch of expiring tax policies were extended, optimized, and improved based on changes in the economic situation. In 2023, more than 70 expiring preferential tax policies will be extended in batches. optimization. Data released by the Ministry of Finance show that the scale of new tax cuts and fee reductions and tax rebates and fee deferrals nationwide in 2023 will exceed 2.2 trillion yuan.
"According to data from relevant departments, in 2023, among the new tax cuts and fee reductions and tax refund and fee deferrals nationwide, the new tax cuts and fee reductions will be approximately 1.57 trillion yuan, and the excess tax refunds processed will be approximately 650 billion yuan." The Ministry of Finance Wang Jianfan, Director of the Budget Department, introduced at the above-mentioned press conference that from an industry perspective, the new tax cuts and fee reductions and tax rebates and deferrals in the manufacturing and related wholesale and retail industries were nearly 950 billion yuan, accounting for 42.6% of the total. %, it is the industry that enjoys the highest proportion of tax preferential treatment. Judging from the scale of enterprises, the scale of new tax cuts and fee reductions and tax rebates and fee deferrals for small, medium and micro enterprises is about 1.43 trillion yuan, accounting for 64%, and "are the most obvious beneficiaries."
He introduced that of the more than 70 preferential tax policies that will be extended and optimized in batches in 2023, most will be extended directly to the end of 2027. "These policies work in both directions to improve supply quality and expand effective demand, focusing on supporting small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, supporting the strengthening and optimizing of the real economy, supporting self-reliance and self-reliance with high-level science and technology, supporting increasing income and expanding consumption to protect people's livelihood, supporting stabilizing Foreign trade stabilizes foreign investment and the healthy development of the capital market."
In terms of fiscal expenditure, the special debt data in the national ledger also attracted attention. "The scale of local government special bonds arranged for 2023 is 3.8 trillion yuan, with priority given to supporting relatively mature projects and projects under construction, focusing on key points without 'sprinkling pepper', and expanding the investment areas of special bonds. In 2023, special bonds The investment areas have been expanded to 11." Wang Dongwei introduced that the scope of special bonds used as project capital has also been expanded to 15 areas. At the same time, the issuance and use of special bonds have been strengthened to effectively promote a number of transportation, water conservancy, energy, etc. that will benefit the current and long-term benefits. construction of major projects.
Wu Qiying noticed that the scope of special bonds to be used as project capital in 2023 has been added to the original 10 fields, including new energy projects, coal reserve facilities, national industrial park infrastructure, gas supply, and heat supply.
"Continue to arrange a certain scale of special bonds for local governments, appropriately increase the scale of investment within the central budget, etc." is also an important direction for fiscal policy in 2024. Li Xianzhong, director of the Treasury Department of the Ministry of Finance, revealed at the above-mentioned press conference that in December 2023, after completing the approval procedures in accordance with the law, the Ministry of Finance has issued some new local government debt limits in 2024 to various localities in advance to support the construction of major projects. Promote the formation of physical workload and give full play to the driving role of local government bonds in the economy.
He also added that since the establishment and improvement of the management system for issuing new local government debt limits in advance in 2019, by 2023, with the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance will issue new debt limits of 1.39 trillion yuan and 2.85 trillion yuan to various localities in advance. yuan, 2.36 trillion yuan, 1.79 trillion yuan and 2.62 trillion yuan, totaling more than 11 trillion yuan.
Necessary fiscal expenditure intensity will continue to be maintained in the new year
The New Year has arrived, and the key words set by the Central Economic Work Conference for the fiscal policy in 2024 are "appropriate strengthening, improving quality and efficiency." Wang Dongwei explained that the so-called moderate strengthening mainly includes four points: first, maintain appropriate expenditure intensity and release positive signals; second, rationally arrange the scale of government investment and give full play to the driving and amplifying effect of government investment; third, increase balance Transfer payment intensity to ensure the bottom line of the "three guarantees" (guaranteing basic livelihood, ensuring wages, and ensuring operation) at the grassroots level; fourth, optimize and adjust tax policies to improve the accuracy, pertinence, and effectiveness of policies.
Regarding "improving quality and efficiency", he explained that efforts must be made in six aspects, namely, implementing tight living requirements, optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure, strengthening performance management, stricting financial discipline, enhancing fiscal sustainability, and strengthening policy coordination. . "Money should be used wisely and at key points, so that the same money can be spent more effectively and achieve higher efficiency."
In particular, he mentioned that fiscal policy should focus on both investment and consumption, and focus on expanding domestic demand. In Sun Kunpeng's view, this requires continuing to implement structural tax and fee reduction policies, especially supporting the development of the real economy, guiding social investment through taxation, and at the same time optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure and expenditure methods to leverage social capital to stimulate investment in emerging industries. Investment in strategic industries promotes the development of new productive forces, and it is necessary to further secure basic guarantees, "including medical and education-related guarantees, especially the upbringing of 'old people' and 'little children' who have relatively large gaps, so as to Solve residents’ worries about expanding consumption.”
It is worth noting that as a key area of fiscal expenditure, the science and technology field has been given priority in recent years. Data from the Ministry of Finance show that from 2018 to 2023, my country’s fiscal science and technology expenditure increased from 832.7 billion yuan to 1.0567 billion yuan, with an average annual growth of 6.4%. Wang Dongwei said that in 2024, the financial department will take more powerful and effective measures to promote the construction of a modern industrial system led by technological innovation and vigorously develop new quality productivity.
"One of the important tasks of the fiscal policy in 2024 is undoubtedly to promote self-reliance and self-reliance in science and technology." In Wu Qiying's view, focusing on key industrial chains such as new generation information technology and integrated circuits, a series of policy tools such as fiscal subsidies, loan interest discounts, tax incentives, Manufacturing transformation and upgrading funds, advanced manufacturing industry investment funds, etc. will be used to solve difficult and blocking problems in basic products, core technologies, key software, etc. In addition, in terms of stimulating the vitality of scientific researchers, two reform pilots will also bring benefits. One is to support the advancement of the pilot reform of the salary system of universities and scientific research institutes, and the other is to accelerate the pilot reform of the ownership or long-term use rights of professional scientific and technological achievements.
China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Zhu Caiyun Source: China Youth Daily