If you could only take one thing with you, what would it be? cell phone. This is the answer given by the vast majority of people to a small online survey.
Small phone, big world. Today, mobile phones are no longer just communication devices, but necessities of life that integrate the functions of computers, TVs, keys, wallets, cameras, watches, game consoles, remote controls, calculators, flashlights, etc.
The world's first mobile phone was born only 50 years ago, and the development of domestic mobile phones only lasted more than 20 years. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, among 500 major industrial products, more than 40% of my country's products rank first in the world in terms of output, and smartphones are one of them.
Domestic mobile phones are not only of quantity and quality, but also a new highlight of Made in China. President Xi Jinping mentioned in his 2024 New Year's message that "new domestic mobile phones are hard to find", which reflects the market's recognition of domestic mobile phones and is a vivid footnote to the continuous improvement of China's manufacturing industry and its climb to the high end of the value chain.
From starting from scratch to forming a strong market advantage, domestic mobile phones have developed from following to today running alongside the world's leading companies, leading the innovation and development of the industry.
What are the advantages and gaps of domestic mobile phones?
At present, domestic mobile phones are very competitive in the market, both at home and abroad.
The latest data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that domestic market shipments of domestic brand mobile phones in 2023 will total 231 million units, accounting for 79.9% of mobile phone shipments in the same period. In other words, domestic mobile phones already account for 80% of the domestic market.
Based on data from multiple market research institutions, Chinese brands account for three of the top five global mobile phone shipments. Chinese brand mobile phones also account for about half of the global market.
It only took more than 20 years to achieve such outstanding results.
In 1987, Guangzhou opened my country's first TACS analog cellular mobile phone system. Also in this year, the first mobile phone Motorola 3200, also known as "Big Brother", entered the Chinese market. For a long time since then, China's mobile phone market has relied on imports and was dominated by brands such as Nokia, Motorola, and Ericsson.
In 1998, my country successfully developed the first GSM digital mobile phone - Kejian KCH-2000. Since then, domestic brands such as Bird, Amoi, Panda, and Southern Hi-tech have been launched one after another. After a difficult start and group breakthroughs, domestic mobile phones have developed rapidly in channel construction, brand promotion, technology research and development, and industrialization. From 1999 to 2003, the share of domestic mobile phones in the domestic market rapidly increased from 5% to 56%.
Since 2009, the domestic mobile phone market structure has changed. On the one hand, the three major telecom operators have launched contract-based mobile phones with pre-stored phone bills in exchange for mobile phones, competing with each other through customized subsidies, and becoming the dominant force in the mobile phone market; on the other hand, communication technology and the Internet are developing at a rapid pace, especially 4G has begun to be commercialized and smart phones have become commercially available. Mobile phones have completely replaced feature phones, and the mobile phone market has ushered in the highlight moment of the "Chinese Cool Alliance". Four companies, ZTE, Huawei, Coolpad and Lenovo, have gradually moved from the edge of the smartphone market to the center of the stage, competing with the world's top brands and becoming the epitome of the rise of China's manufacturing industry.
The past 10 years have been a golden period for the development of smartphones. With the reduction of operator subsidies and the boom of mobile Internet in 2014, domestic mobile phones have entered the era of "Huami OV" from "China Cool Alliance". Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo rely on technology research and development, Internet sales models, enhancing brand power, and occupying online and offline channels to quickly catch up and surpass my country in the smartphone market with the greatest potential, fastest change, and most fierce competition in the world. Taking the lead alternately, forming a development situation with unique characteristics, and also driving the rapid rise of the smartphone industry.
The latest report from market research organization Canalys points out that total global smartphone shipments in 2023 will be 1.1 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. For the first time, Apple slightly surpassed Samsung to become the manufacturer with the highest shipment volume, with both market shares at 20%. After that are Xiaomi, OPPO and Transsion, with market shares of 13%, 9% and 8% respectively.
Previously, based on data from various research institutions, Samsung has ranked first in the global smartphone market for many years. But in the Chinese market, Samsung’s market share is only 1%. Why? The direct "trigger" was the frequent battery explosions of Samsung's Galaxy Note7 mobile phones around the world in 2016. The fundamental reason is that domestically produced mobile phones have developed and grown. They are not only more cost-effective, but also more in line with the needs of Chinese consumers in terms of product design and functions. They are also more considerate in terms of marketing strategies and after-sales services, thus seizing the opportunity to replace Samsung in one fell swoop. domestic market share.
So, what are the advantages of domestic mobile phones compared with foreign brands?
The analysis by Liu Xu, director of CCID Consulting Strategic Research Center, represents the views of many experts: First, the local market is large. China is the country with the largest number of mobile phone users in the world. The accelerated promotion of 5G and the gradual improvement of national consumption power have given domestic mobile phones a natural market advantage and made it easier to carry out local customization.
Second, it is more cost-effective. Domestic mobile phones can realize the full-link process of production, promotion, sales and transportation in China, with lower costs. With the same configuration, the price of domestic mobile phones is generally lower than that of foreign brand mobile phones.
Third, the whole machine is strong. The overall strength of domestic mobile phones has reached the international leading level, and the hardware configuration and additional functions are excellent. As publicity increases and brand influence expands, its advantages become more prominent.
During interviews and surveys, reporters found that consumers’ feelings also confirmed these views.
Photography enthusiast Wang Chuanling said that he has long used domestic mobile phones as backup cameras for photography. The advantage of domestic mobile phone brands lies in their deep understanding of the local market and keen capture of consumer needs, which enable them to better provide consumers with customized services and experiences. Mobile phone enthusiast Xiong Guang believes that the prices of domestic mobile phones are more competitive. In the price range of 4,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan, several domestic mobile phone brands have high-end products that are available and have certain consumer groups.
In terms of core components, except for self-developed chips, the hardware configuration of domestic mobile phones is no longer significantly different from that of foreign brands such as Samsung and Apple. For example, Liu Xu said that in terms of mobile phone lenses, domestic mobile phones are even better. The vivo X series is equipped with Zeiss optical lenses, the Xiaomi 14 series is equipped with Leica professional optical lenses, and OPPO has also cooperated with Hasselblad to jointly develop a mobile phone imaging system. In terms of screens, the latest models of Apple, Samsung and domestic high-end phones basically use Samsung E7 OLED screens, with almost no difference in resolution and color reproduction. As for chips, we can see from Huawei that with technological advancement and healthy competition among manufacturers, domestic mobile phone chips have achieved major breakthroughs.
"The domestic mobile phone industry chain has high maturity, good cost control, high hardware configuration, faster response to localized customization of the native Android system, iterative optimization of user feedback, and strong innovation capabilities. Domestic mobile phone brands are already one of the strongest in the global mobile phone industry. ." said Zhong Xinlong, director of the Artificial Intelligence Research Office of the Future Industry Research Center of CCID Think Tank.
So, compared with internationally renowned brands such as Samsung and Apple, what is the gap between domestic mobile phone brands?
The first is leading innovation. Guo Tianxiang, a senior analyst at IDC China, said frankly that for many years, Apple has released a product first, and domestic mobile phones have imitated and then innovated. Apple currently has a large amount of technology in reserve. If it matures and is implemented one day, it will further widen the gap with domestic mobile phones. Domestic mobile phones are still in the catching-up stage, and we must persist in research and development and continue to accumulate.
Ge Qi, an adjunct professor at the School of Economics and Management of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, said that domestic mobile phones used to adopt a fast-following strategy, that is, we quickly learned new technologies that others had proven successful and produced them at a lower cost, forming a price advantage. But now, everyone is stuck in a bottleneck period in technological innovation, and Chinese mobile phone manufacturers urgently need to rely on original innovation to enhance their competitiveness.
Huang Shi, chief researcher at China Mobile Research Institute, believes that Apple and Samsung have stronger and more advanced independent research and development capabilities and innovations than domestic brands in terms of processors, screens, memory, operating systems, etc. However, domestic brands are also catching up, such as Huawei's Kirin chip series and Hongmeng operating system; Xiaomi's official ThePaper system in 2023, although still based on Android, has been reconstructed from the bottom up, in terms of performance optimization, system security and privacy , cross-terminal interconnection and other aspects have made breakthroughs.
Second is brand value. Guo Tianxiang said that seizing share in the high-end market depends not only on technical capabilities, but also on brand appeal and added value. This is evident from the market’s response to Huawei Mate 60. For consumers, whether they buy Apple or Huawei, they are not so much buying products as they are buying brand value, or products that match their identity.
Zhong Xinlong believes that most consumers' perception of high-end products is more inclined to whether the brand is high-end rather than whether the configuration is high-end. The key to the gap between domestic brands and internationally renowned brands lies in brand image. Consumers are more aware of the "label effect" of a brand on high-end products. This may be the real gap between domestic mobile phone brands and Apple - brand recognition.
Next is the industrial ecology. Huang Shi analyzed that in terms of ecosystem and services, Apple is still far ahead, and there is still a certain gap between domestic mobile phone brands. In terms of global market share, Apple and Samsung have always been in the leading position. Compared with domestic mobile phone brands, they have a more balanced layout and have greater market influence in developed countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea. While domestic mobile phone brands perform strongly in Asian, African and Latin American markets, their influence in European, American, Japanese and Korean markets is relatively weak. In addition, Apple and Samsung own a large number of patents and intellectual property rights around the world, which provides them with strong support to maintain their leadership in the international market. Domestic mobile phone brands still need to strengthen their global patent layout.
How to bridge these gaps? Yang Xuecheng, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, believes that there are three clear routes. First, all-round players represented by Huawei build their own industrial ecosystem. The most difficult thing about taking this path is not the hardware or software, but the formation of a complete application market, thereby driving the entire industrial ecosystem. The second is that companies represented by Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo first open up sales and create explosive products, and then take the road of technology-based careers. The third is to comply with current industry trends and take new energy vehicles overseas to bring new possibilities to the mobile phone industry, which is the key to the next incremental market.
Developing differentiated advantages as quickly as possible is key. Currently, the domestically produced high-end phones on the market adopt a "stacking" method to significantly improve the software and hardware capabilities of the phones, but they have not formed the differentiated competitiveness of "what others don't have and what I have" and the brand influence that convinces consumers. For example, Apple's advantages are its smooth operating system, complete mobile phone ecosystem and powerful chips; Samsung has a series of leading self-developed hardware, including display panels, memory chips, cameras, flash memory, etc.
Liu Xu said that these differentiated advantages have enabled the brand influence and sales of Apple and Samsung to occupy the forefront of the global smartphone market for a long time. If domestic mobile phones want to break through, their innovation capabilities and differentiated competitiveness need to continue to be strengthened.
Why are domestic mobile phones becoming more and more expensive?
On September 28, 2023, Huawei Mate 60 RS Extraordinary Master was officially launched for sale. The 16GB+1TB version of this series is priced as high as 12,999 yuan. This domestic mobile phone, which is called "the pinnacle of high-end maximalism", has been highly booked as soon as it goes on sale. Because it is hard to find a machine and its popularity in the secondary market is extremely high, it was once called "Electronic Moutai" by many mobile phone enthusiasts.
A month later, Xiaomi mobile phones, which have always focused on cost-effectiveness, released the 14 series. The 16GB+1TB Xiaomi 14 pro titanium special edition is priced at 6,499 yuan. Although the price is higher, on the first day of sales of this series, the sales volume exceeded that of the entire iPhone 15 series previously launched.
According to IDC data, Honor ranked first among domestic mobile phones in China’s smart market shipment rankings in both the fourth quarter of 2023 and the whole year of 2023. In addition, Honor Magic V2 continues to lead among folding screen products. As related technologies continue to iteratively develop and mature, the pain points of “thickness, weight, and expensiveness” are gradually being resolved. Honor’s high-end strategy is reflected in folding screens represented by Magic V2.
In the production workshop of vivo Industrial Park in Dongguan, Guangdong, a batch of vivo X Fold2 folding screen mobile phones are about to roll off the production line. From UTG super-tough glass, to internal double cam structure, multi-layer three-dimensional support structure, to the application of aerospace-grade materials, the high-standard configuration has made the price of vivo X Fold2 jump to 8,000 yuan.
Walking into the experience stores of major domestic mobile phone brands, you will be greeted by the innovative atmosphere of various high-end configuration products. Hinge technology allows mobile phones to achieve visual and tactile "folding without trace"; mobile phones made of dragon scale fiber are thinner and lighter; using Leica optical lenses, mobile phones can also easily take high-quality blockbusters.
The endless designs are dazzling, and the rising prices also discourage many people. Consumers can’t help but ask: “When did domestic mobile phones become so expensive?”
"Price perception is just an appearance, but behind it is the difficulty faced by the mobile phone industry in coping with industrial transformation and development." Yang Xuecheng said.
——Increased demand calls for improved supply. As living standards continue to improve, the smartphone market has entered a stage of transition from rigidly needed products to improved products. Consumers pay attention to higher-quality imaging functions, better gaming experience, longer battery life, faster charging speed, and better body quality. High-end machines with better performance in all aspects have become the first choice for consumers when purchasing. Main options.
In recent years, global smartphone market shipments have continued to decline, but the high-end market has bucked the trend and has grown. The latest analysis from market research agency Counterpoint Research predicts that the sales of the global high-end smartphone (wholesale price ≥ US$600) market may increase by 6% year-on-year in 2023, hitting a new high and accounting for nearly a quarter of the global smartphone market sales and 60% % of income. This data confirms Xiaomi Group Chairman and CEO Lei Jun’s judgment on the mobile phone market: “High-end is the only way to go, and it is a battle of life and death!”
——Slowing growth and seeking high-end strategies. At present, the mobile phone market is gradually becoming saturated and entering the stage of stock competition. Mobile phone manufacturers’ innovation costs in terms of hardware upgrades, software development, and ecological construction are constantly increasing. Faced with the continued increase in R&D investment and innovation costs, companies are beginning to look for a way out in high-end layouts.
Take the Apple brand for example. Public data shows that in 2023, Apple will account for 71% of the global high-end smartphone market. The key is that for a long time, in the global smartphone market, Apple has accounted for less than 20% of shipments and captured more than 80% of global market profits. Compared with other mobile phone brands whose profit margins have long hovered between 5% and 15% strong. High-end machines mean high profits and have become a "must compete" for manufacturers to seize new growth space.
——Transformation and upgrading are the inevitable way out. High-end manufacturing is an active choice for my country's mobile phone industry to enter a stage of high-quality development and cope with transformation and upgrading.
In the opinion of experts, moving towards high-end phones is the foundation and support for building an electronic consumption ecosystem centered on mobile phones. Compared with only selling mobile phones as a single product, forming an ecology of smart devices including Bluetooth headsets, smart watches, tablets, etc. around mobile phones can not only increase the profits of mobile phone manufacturers, but also increase sales through "family bucket"-style products. Improve user stickiness, thereby driving technological upgrading and structural adjustment of the entire industry chain and supply chain.
In just 10 years, domestic mobile phones have moved towards high-end products.
Since 2014, the average wholesale price of domestic mobile phones has continued to grow, rising from 1,000 yuan to 3,500 yuan. Data from Counterpoint Research shows that in the global high-end smartphone market in 2023, in addition to Apple and Samsung, Huawei is closely followed with a 5% share, and Xiaomi and OPPO rank fourth and fifth.
The relevant person in charge of vivo group told reporters that low-price competition is a kind of "involution" in the face of immediate pressure. It is actually a manifestation of overcapacity and lack of innovation. The result of a price war is that companies lose reasonable profits and are unable to focus on innovation, creation and future development, and may even destroy an industry.
OPPO Chief Product Officer Liu Zuohu said that the market share captured through price wars is also very unstable. User-oriented innovation and creating differentiated advantages around core competitiveness are the future development direction of the industry.
Lei Jun said that in core areas such as screens, imaging, charging, and chips, high-end products are ushering in a moment of innovation. Facing a new round of industrial and technological change cycles, it is a major trend for China's consumer electronics and even Chinese manufacturing to become high-end, intelligent, and green, and domestic mobile phones must catch up.
As major mobile phone manufacturers strive to deploy high-end phones, another question arises: "Are high-end phones worth it?" The answer is yes.
——Hardware configuration is more optimized. Processor, memory, screen, battery and camera are the most concerned hardware elements, and better performance often means higher cost. Take mobile phone processors as an example. A batch of high-end Android phones launched in 2023 are generally equipped with top-level processors such as Snapdragon 8 Gen2, Snapdragon 8+ Gen1, and Dimensity 9200. The manufacturing process of these chips is more complex, the cost is higher, and the computing power The speed is also far better than mid- to low-priced mobile phone chips. For another example, in terms of screens, the screens of high-end mobile phones currently shipped are basically made of OLED materials, which support wide viewing angles and wide color gamut, and the screen thickness is thinner. However, most low-end mobile phones use LCD screens, which are thick and have high power consumption, and cannot be bent or bent. Under-screen fingerprint recognition and other functions.
——A richer user experience. The camera easily achieves 60x zoom, the gaming process is smooth and smooth, and fast charging ensures continuous battery life... The ultimate user experience has become a key driving force for mobile phone consumption. The reporter combed and found that high-end models of major domestic brands basically have additional functions such as fast charging, super battery life, high-definition photography, dustproof and waterproof as standard equipment. At the same time, in the selection of mobile phone back covers, commonly used plastic or metal materials are also eliminated, and more textured materials such as glass and ceramics are used.
——The design is more personalized. As the younger generation becomes the main force in mobile phone consumption, pioneering design, personalization and high-end aesthetics are attracting more and more attention. Mobile phone manufacturers are also targeting opportunities and launching various limited edition and customized products for young consumer groups. High-end phones focusing on personalization have become the "darlings".
“Whether it’s worth it or not is a more subjective judgment that needs to be evaluated by consumers, and the conclusion varies from person to person.” Many experts believe that if consumers only pursue smooth system, clear screen, durable battery, shooting effect, and stable call quality , then the price of a high-end machine may not be worth it. But for other consumers, multiple factors such as the ultimate gaming experience, professional optical lenses comparable to SLR cameras, and excellent industrial aesthetic design are all reasons to pay for high-end mobile phones.
From winning at low prices to breaking through at high-end, facing the existing market and finding a way out to high-end, domestic mobile phones are embarking on a new round of battle.
Why is it difficult to sell mobile phones?
The global smartphone industry started not long ago, but as an industry that was born along with the global technological revolution, it grew very fast, and therefore encountered an unavoidable problem early on: it was difficult to sell.
Since the beginning of 2018, global smartphone shipments have continued to decline. IDC data shows that global smartphone shipments will drop 3.2% year-on-year in 2023 to 1.17 billion units, the lowest level in the past 10 years.
The same is true for the domestic smartphone market. Many comments blame the downturn in the smartphone market in recent years on the epidemic, but in fact, domestic smartphone shipments have been on a downward trend since reaching their peak in 2016, with only a small increase in 2021 when 5G mobile phones are launched on a large scale. It has rebounded since the fourth quarter of 2023.
The replacement cycle continues to lengthen. Once upon a time, smartphones broke into the market as fashionable technology products. New functions and applications were rapidly updated and updated, and the replacement cycle was often within one or two years. Nowadays, as chips, screens, batteries and operating systems gradually mature and stabilize, mobile phones have become durable electronic products like TVs and refrigerators. Data shows that the average replacement cycle of smartphone users has extended from the previous 22 months to 36 months, and the latest estimate is even as long as 51 months.
Why is it difficult to sell?
One reason is the lack of disruptive innovation. "The market lacks new bright spots." Xiang Ligang, chairman of the Zhongguancun Information Consumption Alliance, said that neither domestic nor foreign companies have come up with enough new technologies and products, and the level of innovation is far from consumers' psychological expectations, resulting in Consumers’ replacement cycles are lengthening and their willingness to consume has decreased.
Guo Tianxiang believes that mobile phones, from product form and chip technology to cameras and operating systems, have entered an innovation bottleneck period after years of development. It is difficult for disruptive products to emerge in a short period of time, greatly reducing their appeal to consumers. Even if manufacturers repeatedly advertise that the performance of batteries, cameras, imaging, and chips have been greatly improved, consumers have not noticed any obvious improvements. Mobile phones have entered an era of excess performance. Even products from 3 years ago will not have a bad experience when used today. Product homogeneity is also becoming more and more serious.
The iteration of mobile phones is not obvious. In the past, there were two main driving forces for people to change their mobile phones. One was the memory space, which was not enough without expansion; the other was the camera, which was constantly pursuing higher definition. Nowadays, in both aspects, mobile phone products try their best to meet user needs and do not need to be replaced in the short term. Zhang Yi, CEO and chief analyst of iiMedia Consulting, said that in the past two years, chip iteration has not been obvious, and there has not been much demand for machine replacement.
The second reason is that the mobile phone market is becoming saturated. The saturation level of China's mobile phone market is very high, and there are few new users. The situation of "everyone has one mobile phone" has basically formed, and some people have two or three mobile phones. China, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea and other regions have entered the era of stock replacement. Only in Southeast Asia, India, Africa and other places can there be significant room for growth.
According to statistics from the China Electronic Equipment Technology Development Association, as of the end of 2021, the number of domestic mobile phones in society was 1.856 billion. In other words, China has 1.3 mobile phones per capita. At the same time, a large number of new mobile phones are still launched every year. Data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that in 2023, the total mobile phone shipments in the domestic market will total 289 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%.
The third reason is the lack of usage scenarios for consumers to replace their mobile phones. “Previously, new scenarios such as online chatting, online shopping, short videos, and mobile games emerged one after another, driving consumers to constantly replace models with smoother networks, faster operation, and longer standby times. At present, there are no newer scenarios. ." Guo Tianxiang said.
There is another undeniable reason. Nowadays, the quality of mobile phones is getting better and better, and the replacement cycle is inevitably extended.
"As products get better and better, the space for improvement in consumer experience gradually shrinks, and it is normal for consumers to feel that there is no need to upgrade. This is an inevitable law of the development of most industries, and it is also a problem that mobile phone manufacturers are thinking hard about." Yang Xuecheng said.
Obviously, the smartphone market has entered the "Red Sea" and the industry lacks growth momentum. In recent years, the smartphone industry has experienced global economic downturn, local conflicts and geopolitics. The chip supply chain has gone from shortage to surplus. Industry competition has become increasingly fierce, which has become a common industry situation faced by the world. Affected by economic and environmental factors, the mobile phone market continues to operate at a low level, and the market as a whole is shrinking. Mobile phone manufacturers' product upgrades and strategic layouts are basically based on stability, and the early surprise winning strategies have gradually disappeared.
what to do?
Look for increments in the stock. The Central Economic Work Conference clearly proposed to stabilize and expand traditional consumption and boost bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles and electronic products. Entering the stock stage does not mean that rigid demand has completely disappeared, nor does it mean that the industry has reached the "ceiling". There are still a lot of unmet needs for users in multiple scenarios, and storage, imaging, connectivity, intelligence and other aspects need to be continuously explored. The pain points of users are the growth points of the industry.
Observing the current consumption trends in the mobile phone market, there are three points worth noting. First, consumers’ enthusiasm for new technologies has not diminished. The emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence large models, satellite calls, and higher battery life will bring more vitality to the market; secondly, consumer value demand is transmitted. More and more consumers consider the additional brand value of mobile phones when purchasing. This demand will further enhance the market strategic position of high-end mobile phones; third, active and effective price strategies. In 2023, Apple will adopt a more aggressive pricing strategy in order to maintain market share. Behind this is an accurate grasp of consumers' psychological price positioning, which may be adopted by more brands in the future, further intensifying market competition.
The Lunar New Year is approaching, and the number of people in Xiaomi’s Baijiahua store in Bao’an District, Shenzhen, Guangdong has increased significantly. Store manager Lin Qicheng told reporters that what is more obvious in offline stores is that the types of mobile phones have gradually changed from niche areas such as gaming phones, camera phones, and thin and good-looking phones to all-round products. In addition, major mobile phone manufacturers also unanimously regard the localization rate of accessories as an important indicator. There are indeed some offline consumers who will try domestic mobile phones out of this consideration.
We must continue to innovate and encourage consumers to upgrade. The "Red Sea" is not the "Dead Sea". We must continue to break through new technologies, open up new markets, improve new services, and create new competitive advantages for my country's mobile phone industry. Innovation leads consumption, and there are examples everywhere. For example, despite the overall sluggish performance of the smartphone market in recent years, foldable screen mobile phones have become a new growth point in the smartphone market after years of precipitation and market deliberation, thanks to the collective efforts of major mainstream mobile phone manufacturers, achieving growth against the trend and continuing to maintain Rapid growth trend.
Many domestic mobile phone manufacturers regard mobile imaging technology as a "must compete for military strategists" and improve mobile phone imaging performance by launching self-developed imaging chips. For example, vivo has been conducting algorithm research since 2016, focusing on the three core scenes of portraits, night scenes, and sports. Through self-developed image chips, ultra-clear image quality engines and other technologies, vivo has continued to make breakthroughs in algorithms to better meet consumer needs.
On January 8, OPPO released Find X7 Ultra, which puts four professional-grade Hasselblad lenses into the mobile phone, taking mobile imaging capabilities to a new level. Liu Zuohu said that imaging capability is a systematic project, involving a series of factors such as software, hardware, chips, algorithms and aesthetics.
Mobile phone manufacturers should still focus on ensuring product quality, providing personalized services, and accelerating core technology research. Liu Xu suggested that first, we should strengthen in-depth cooperation with the supply chain. As phone models increase and production becomes more difficult, it is necessary to ensure a stable supply of mobile phones and ensure product quality; second, focus on product customization services. Carry out more refined classification and combination of various functions of mobile phones to meet the diversified needs of consumers; third, speed up self-research on core technologies. In terms of hardware, we will continue to study SoC (system-on-chip) technology and break down technical barriers as soon as possible. In terms of software, we continue to optimize the operating system and establish an operating ecosystem that enables multi-terminal interaction.
In 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Action Plan for Steady Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry in 2023-2024", proposing to rely on technological and product form innovation to boost traditional electronic consumption such as mobile phones, computers, and televisions, and continuously release domestic market demand. Promote the high-end upgrading of mobile phone brands, cultivate and expand the folding screen mobile phone industry ecosystem, and promote the maturity of the folding screen mobile phone ecosystem from the perspectives of optimizing costs, improving technology, and increasing software adaptation.
With the joint efforts of many parties, the smartphone market is releasing signs of recovery. IDC data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2023, China's smartphone market shipped approximately 73.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, achieving the first rebound in nearly 10 quarters. IDC predicts that China's smartphone market shipments will reach 287 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and shipments will remain stable in the next few years. The recovery of China's smartphone market is driving the global smartphone market to improve.
What will the future phone look like?
People have unlimited imagination about the future of mobile phones: when you enter a shopping mall you have never been to, click on your mobile phone to search for the store or restaurant you want to go to, and the path plan will be quickly displayed in AR (augmented reality) glasses; There is no need to look for a car in the basement, just open the phone and move your finger, and the car will automatically drive to you; after a mobile phone is folded by 30% or even 40%, it becomes a laptop...
Judging from the current market, folding screen mobile phones with significant differences in appearance and form, as well as mobile phones that apply the new "5G + artificial intelligence" technology, may be the growth points of the mobile phone market in the future.
Since 2022, foldable screen mobile phones have suddenly emerged and sales have grown rapidly. IDC data shows that this momentum will continue. In 2024, China's foldable screen mobile phone market shipments will be close to 10 million units, a year-on-year increase of 53.2%, and the compound growth rate in 2027 will reach 37.5%.
The screen shape of foldable screen mobile phones has changed significantly compared with phablet phones and curved screen mobile phones, bringing consumers a refreshing experience. One of the reasons why domestic mobile phone manufacturers are actively deploying foldable screen mobile phones is that they can form differentiated competition with Apple mobile phones and take the lead in another track.
"Although for the entire mobile phone market, the volume of folding screen products is still very limited. But focusing on the high-end market, the stimulating effect of folding screen products is very considerable. For some time to come, folding screens will still be the leading role of domestic mobile phone manufacturers in the high-end market. It has become a consensus that we must increase investment in research and development and continue to iterate and upgrade products." Guo Tianxiang said.
Hinge technology, flexible screen technology, software ecology, etc. are technical bottlenecks that need to be continuously broken through for folding screen mobile phones. As a key technology for folding screen mobile phones, the hinge affects the feel of the product when flipped, the screen creases and the thickness of the entire device in the folded state. As early as 2018, OPPO began to polish the folding screen folding solution. It took 11 months, but the creases of the screen were still unsatisfactory. From 2018 to 2021, OPPO has iterated on 6 folding solutions in 4 years, including outward folding, inward folding, up and down folding, exhausting all folding screen solutions, and finally a mature solution has surfaced. Up to now, OPPO has deployed 1,080 patents around the world around folding screen mobile phones.
In Ge Qi’s view, foldable screen phones can take on more tablet functions when unfolded. Convenience and portability is a proposition that every mobile phone manufacturer must answer.
"Thinness and lightness are undoubtedly an important factor that affects users' purchase of folding screen mobile phones, and it has also become the first technological strength of folding screen mobile phones." Honor CEO Zhao Ming introduced to reporters using the Honor Magic V2 series of products as an example. The new product will make each component thin and light. Customized transformation, overcoming manufacturing process difficulties, creating ultra-thin folding hinges, screens, heat dissipation systems, Type-C interface modules, etc., and further compressing the internal space through systematic architectural design capabilities, with the thickness in the closed state reaching 9.9 mm, and the weight It weighs 231 grams, taking into account the dual needs of a large screen and portability.
Liu Zuohu said that with the popularity of folding screens, consumers have higher expectations for the next generation of folding screen products. On the basis of meeting the requirements of thinness and lightness, mobile phone manufacturers will greatly improve the comprehensive capabilities of folding screen products, including more powerful imaging systems, computing and battery life that are not inferior to candy bar flagships, and more practical and intelligent interactive experiences.
Performance is improving and prices are going down. IDC predicts that as the cost of major components such as hinges and screens decreases, the price of foldable screen mobile phones will continue to decline. Among them, horizontal folding products are expected to drop to the price range of 4,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan, and vertical folding products will enter the price range of 3,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan.
Liu Xu said that due to hardware costs and its own positioning, the price and configuration of foldable screen mobile phones will not continue to decline. Although they will not become the mainstream form of the smartphone market, they can occupy a large share of the high-end mobile phone market.
According to Guo Tianxiang’s observation, foreign consumers, especially European and American countries, have a high degree of acceptance of folding screens. If the price of a folding screen mobile phone is equal to "a mobile phone + a tablet", they would prefer the former. However, due to various reasons, foreign consumers are still unable to access Chinese brand folding screen mobile phones. If it can successfully open the door to overseas markets, foldable screen mobile phones may usher in new growth. In addition, young people in countries and regions such as Malaysia and Indonesia are also interested in folding screen products. In the future, Southeast Asian countries will also be the best-selling destinations for foldable screen mobile phones.
In addition to hardware, software is also an important factor in changing smartphones. Since the commercialization of 5G, it has produced many achievements in the industry, but it has not yet ushered in an explosive period on the consumer side. The blessing of artificial intelligence technology may become an opportunity. More and more mobile phone manufacturers are joining forces with chip manufacturers to use the powerful computing power and algorithms of the new generation of artificial intelligence chips and the high-speed and high-reliability features of 5G networks to create more new scenarios that are attractive to users. Stimulate user demand.
The "Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry 2023-2024 Stable Growth Action Plan" proposes that in 2024, 5G mobile phone shipments in my country's mobile phone market will account for more than 85%. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that 5G mobile phone users will reach 805 million in 2023, accounting for 46.6% of mobile phone users, an increase of 13.3 percentage points from the end of the previous year.
"Currently, more than half of mobile Internet users do not use 5G mobile phones. Thousand-yuan 5G mobile phones will be a new growth point." Ge Qi believes that the chip price of 5G mobile phones is similar to that of 4G mobile phones, and the launch of thousand-yuan 5G mobile phones Completely feasible in terms of cost. However, we must also note that the communication service fees of 5G packages are relatively high. The high threshold restrictions should be removed as soon as possible, and no distinction between 4G and 5G should be made. No matter what network consumers use, unified and affordable charging standards will accelerate the popularity of 5G mobile phones.
As technologies such as large models and generative artificial intelligence are implemented on mobile phones, future mobile phones may have autonomous learning capabilities and thus play the role of personal assistants, providing customized services for everyone's work, life, and study.
Experts judge that if battery manufacturers break through the material bottleneck, the mobile phone industry will surely usher in a new wave of replacement.
This exploration is ongoing - as Honor commercializes Qinghai Lake batteries, mobile phone batteries have also ushered in the era of silicon carbon anode materials. According to reports, this material uses graphite doped with silicon to increase the energy density of the negative electrode by 16% compared with ordinary graphite negative electrode batteries, providing higher battery capacity under the same volume. In addition, the low-voltage charge concentration technology developed by Honor enables mobile phones to operate stably and reliably at low voltages.
Liu Xu believes that in the future, mobile phones will continue to evolve towards convenience, integration, intelligence, and security. Security performance will also be further improved, evolving from current fingerprint recognition and facial recognition to more advanced and accurate methods such as iris recognition and voice recognition. Call security will be more comprehensive, encryption technology will continue to be upgraded, and quantum secure communications are expected to be popularized.
The rapid development of mobile phones is the epitome of the rapid development of the information and communication industry and even the national economy. When the hand of time points to 2024, standing at a new historical starting point, I believe that with its existing advantages such as advanced manufacturing capabilities, complete and efficient industrial chain, and large market scale, the mobile phone industry will surely be able to buck the trend and build a modern industrial system and economy. High-quality development brings together more new vitality and bursts out stronger new momentum.
Reporters Huang Xin, Li Pengda, Wan Zhengji Wenhui