Is the era of humanoid robots coming? The market size is expected to reach US$154 billion in 2035

　　◎Xiao Yuzhou reporter Wang Chun

　　Recently, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Future Industrial Innovation and Development", proposing to "strengthen high-end equipment in the future and make breakthroughs in products such as humanoid robots and quantum computers."

　　This is not the first time the term "humanoid robot" has entered the public consciousness. At the end of 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots". On January 12 this year, the Expert Committee of the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center was established in the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone.

　　As artificial intelligence technology has made breakthroughs, the development momentum of humanoid robots has become stronger. Humanoid robots with smart brains and flexible limbs are becoming a popular industry track in the future. Public data shows that the humanoid robot market is expected to reach US$154 billion in 2035.

　　Why has the development of humanoid robots become a hot topic? Compared with industrial robots, robot dogs, sweeping robots and other products, what are the differences between humanoid robots? What problems does its research and development face that need to be solved urgently? With these questions, the reporter visited industry experts.

　　Humanoid robots have unique advantages

　　In 2023, the number of humanoid robot products will increase sharply. At the 2023 World Robot Conference alone, more than 10 humanoid robot products were unveiled.

　　Globally, the humanoid robot "Optimus Prime" developed by Tesla has received great attention. Judging from the information released by Tesla, "Optimus Prime" already has many skills such as watering flowers, dancing, and folding clothes. In addition, Amazon’s humanoid robot Digit has made its debut in many practical work scenarios. Amazon also spent $1.7 billion to acquire the robotics company iRobot in 2022.

　　"The humanoid robot industry involves many key technologies, such as embedded computing methods for intelligent control, sensor technology, etc. Breakthroughs in these technologies may drive the development of other industries." said Liu Lianqing, deputy director of the Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

　　Compared with ordinary industrial robots and service robots, humanoid robots are very different in structural design, hardware composition, control algorithms, core performance requirements and component selection. For example, the number of joints of ordinary industrial robots is generally between 2 and 10, while the number of joints of humanoid robots is expected to be more than 40, and each joint requires a servo motor.

　　So why spend so much effort making robots humanoid?

　　"Humanoid robots can adapt well to the human living environment and use human tools. In addition, they also have natural advantages in human-computer interaction. It will be more natural when humans conduct human-machine dialogue and emotional projection with them." University of Shanghai for Science and Technology said Li Qingdu, executive director of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. He believes that by learning human skills, humanoid robots can free humans from tedious and high-risk jobs.

　　Chinese companies accelerate breakthroughs in key technologies

　　Height is 1.65 meters, weight is 55 kilograms, walking speed can reach 5 kilometers per hour, load can reach 50 kilograms, the whole body has 40 degrees of freedom, and the peak torque of the maximum joint module can reach 300 Nm... In 2023, Shanghai Fourier Intelligence The universal humanoid robot GR-1 developed by Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Fourier Intelligence) was unveiled at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference and officially opened for pre-sale in September of the same year.

　　Gu Jie, Chairman and CEO of Fourier Intelligence, said that the robot's feet are the first key technical module that Fourier Intelligence has overcome in the development of humanoid robots. Fourier Intelligence released my country's first commercial lower limb exoskeleton robot X1 in 2017. The "backpack + biped" shape presented by this robot laid the foundation for the GR-1 leg shape.

　　Humanoid robots are indispensable without the most important execution end of human beings - hands. Shanghai Feixi Robot Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Feixi Technology) is a unicorn company in the field of general robots, specializing in the arm part of humanoid robots. The robot "Dawn" developed by the company has expanded the boundaries of robot capabilities. The flexibility of this robot's hands even exceeds that of human hands. When the reporter tried to push the "fingertips" of "Dawn" in different directions, the seven axes of its hand cooperated with each other and continued to retract in different directions according to the push given by the reporter, as if it was doing Tai Chi with the reporter. This completely breaks the stereotype that robots tend to perform repetitive movements along fixed trajectories.

　　"'Dawn' can learn to adapt to unfamiliar environments like humans, and make spontaneous movements based on feeling." said Wang Shiquan, co-founder and CEO of Feixi Technology.

　　Where does Dawn's ability come from? It turns out that Feixi Technology has developed a set of algorithms similar to the human cerebellum. It can control the force output by each joint of the robot, and even allow the robot to form "muscle memory" like a human.

　　The above cases are just the epitome of how Chinese companies are accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies for humanoid robots. Driven by favorable policies and technological progress, my country's humanoid robot technology achievements are emerging one after another, application scenarios continue to expand, and the localization process of core components continues to accelerate. Humanoid robots are gradually moving towards more advanced and intelligent directions.

　　Industrial implementation still needs to address multiple challenges

　　Humanoid robots have achieved many achievements at key technical levels, but their development still faces multiple challenges. Li Qingdu said that balance ability, endurance, intelligence, safety and economy are the five major global problems in the development of humanoid robots.

　　Balance ability enables the robot to maintain a stable posture during movement. Humanoid robots need to have capabilities such as tipping recovery, single-leg balance, and dynamic balance. The dynamic model of humanoid robots is very complex, including continuous variable dynamic systems, discrete event dynamic systems, and hybrid systems where the two interact. This brings greater technical difficulties to the balance and stability control of the robot.

　　"Endurance refers to energy efficiency, which determines whether humanoid robots can be promoted and used on a large scale." Li Qingdu said. The humanoid robot's humanoid form determines that it cannot carry a large battery. However, the current energy density of lithium batteries is limited, which poses serious challenges to the endurance of humanoid robots. New forms of batteries, wireless charging and other power supply solutions are expected to solve this problem.

　　The difficulty in humanoid robot intelligence lies in how to achieve "cerebellar intelligence". Li Qingdu said that just like humans, humanoid robots also have a "brain", "cerebellum" and "limbs". Among them, the "cerebellum" needs to integrate sensory data and control body posture. It is a bridge between the "brain" and the "limbs" and is of great significance to the robot's autonomous learning ability and skill transfer ability. At present, with the rapid development of large models represented by ChatGPT, humanoid robots have taken a key step on the road to realizing "cerebellar intelligence".

　　The safety of humanoid robots includes two levels. First of all, it is necessary to ensure that the robot will not cause harm to people if it loses control such as falling down; secondly, since humanoid robots are mobile terminals like mobile phones, it is also necessary to ensure that the process of receiving and executing instructions is safe and reliable.

　　Finally, there is the economic issue of humanoid robots. At present, the cost of a single unit of "Optimus Prime" is about US$100,000. This price is already relatively low among many humanoid robot products, but it obviously has not yet reached the market expectation of less than US$20,000. For Chinese humanoid robot companies, using domestically produced self-developed components may be an effective way to reduce costs. (Science and Technology Daily)