GDP (gross domestic product) from October to December last year will be announced on February 15th. According to private forecasts, export growth will be the driving force, leading to overall positive growth for the first time in two quarters, but many believe that personal consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, lacks strength due to the impact of high prices. occupied.
Regarding GDP from October to December last year, 12 companies, including private think tanks, all predicted that the real GDP growth rate, excluding price changes, would be positive for the first time in two quarters.
On an annualized basis, we expect an increase of 0.4% to 2.5%.
Each company believes that "exports" pushed up the growth rate,
including ▽exports of automobiles increasing due to the easing of parts shortages, and
▽consumption by foreign tourists who are statistically classified as ``exports'' was strong
. is.
On the other hand, personal consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, has seen a lack of strength, with growth rates ranging from -0.3% to +0.2% compared to three months ago.
Household budgets are under pressure due to high prices, and consumption of food and services such as travel is believed to have been sluggish.
Furthermore, there is an increasing view that corporate capital investment will only grow at a modest pace due to factors such as rising material prices and labor shortages.
As the government aims to achieve economic growth through high wage increases and active investment, attention will be focused on trends in personal consumption and capital investment, which are expected to be the driving forces in this GDP forecast.