Adjustments to purchase restrictions in hot cities have been implemented one after another. How has the market reacted?

　　China News Service, February 5 (China News Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun) The optimization of purchase restrictions has become an important step in the adjustment of property market policies in the first month of 2024.

　　First-tier and hot-spot cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Suzhou are at the forefront of this round of relaxation of purchase restrictions, and are expected to lead to partial relaxation or full liberalization in more cities.

　　How many days have it been since the new policy was implemented? How effective has it been? Will more cities follow suit?

  Data map: Shanghai. Photo by Xu Jing

The number of consultations has increased, and the industry is looking forward to more transactions after the year

　　"The real estate business is online 24 hours a day, and we are open during the Spring Festival. You can consult at any time!" Tang Chang (pseudonym), a Zhejiang native who works as a real estate agent in Shanghai, has temporarily postponed his return to his hometown during the Chinese New Year.

　　"When we were chatting a few days ago, we said that real estate agents might be the first ones to take a holiday this year and go back to the village early to sleep on the kang. Unexpectedly, there was a sudden 'reversal'." Tang Chang said that when the new policy was released, some colleagues I have returned to my hometown, and I chose to stay a little longer because it was close to home.

　　On January 30, Shanghai officially announced that it would allow singles outside the outer ring road to purchase houses without local household registration. Starting from January 31, non-Shanghai residents who have paid social insurance or personal income tax in Shanghai continuously for 5 years or more, You can purchase only one house in areas outside the outer ring (except Chongming District). The five new cities of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian and Nanhui have become key beneficiary areas of the New Deal.

　　According to Tang Chang's experience, especially in first-tier cities like Shanghai, there are many young people who want to buy a house independently before marriage, and the customer base is relatively broad. "However, because the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, many single customers have already gone home to celebrate the New Year. Most of the ones who don't really need it will have a 'we'll see it after the New Year' mentality, so we think the effect will be more obvious after the holiday."

　　Tang Chang said that among the customers who are currently active in viewing houses and consulting, many already have an apartment in their hands and plan to sell it and then replace it with a house; there are also people who work in the suburbs and have to wait for settlement or social security. In a few years, after the New Deal, you can buy it.

　　He introduced a client he is currently in contact with from Songjiang District. His workplace is in Xincheng. There is no need for a school district, and the area does not need to be too large. He only needs to be close to the subway. "Her budget is more than two million yuan, and now she can almost see a two-bedroom apartment of about 70 square meters."

　　"There is also a young couple who are considering selling their home and replacing it with a new one. The area is not large, about 80 square meters. There is currently a lot of room for negotiation. They hope to find a buyer as soon as possible while the purchase restrictions are relaxed." Tang Chang said that the volume of inquiries, both online and offline, has increased significantly recently, and he hopes it can be implemented and reflected in the transaction volume as soon as possible after the holiday.

　　On the same day as Shanghai, Suzhou also fully relaxed its purchase restriction policy, and house purchases are no longer limited to area and number of units. This is also another purchase restriction adjustment after Suzhou "no longer conducts purchase qualification review for the purchase of commercial housing of 120 square meters and above" in September 2023.

　　Zhong Xiaoqing, a research fellow at the Suzhou branch of Shell Research Institute, said that the complete lifting of housing purchase restrictions can better meet residents’ rigid needs and improve housing needs. For customer groups who have not been qualified to buy houses before and are still on the sidelines, the new policy can provide greater convenience for them to buy property and settle down in Suzhou. At the same time, based on market feedback after the introduction of policies over the years, after the implementation of the new policy, the number of consultations and housing transactions is expected to increase.

　　A real estate agent in Suzhou told a reporter from Sino-Singapore Finance that the number of store inquiries in the past few days after the new policy was released was significantly higher than before. However, as an industrial city, Suzhou has a large migrant population and there are relatively few people who can directly finalize the deal before the holiday.

　　"Currently, relatively high-quality properties have about 7-10 viewings in 15 days. We feel that the new policy released before the holiday gives a buffer period, and we look forward to more customers during the traditional 'Gold, Three, Silver and Four' time. Groups and options can lead to better deals,” he said.

  Data map: Aerial photography of Suzhou. Photo by Yang Bo

Which other cities may be adjusted?

　　The above-mentioned hotspot cities’ leadership has undoubtedly opened up a new round of policy space. Statistics from the China Index Research Institute show that in January 2024, 38 provinces, cities (counties) had issued 46 policies.

　　"Policies in various places are being implemented at an accelerated pace, overall optimization efforts are strong, and the signal of policy relaxation is more obvious. The market may rebound after the Spring Festival holiday." Liu Shui, corporate research director of the China Index Research Institute, believes.

　　On January 26, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development mentioned at the deployment meeting of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism that we must adhere to city-specific policies, precise policies, and one policy for each city, make good use of the policy toolbox, and fully empower urban real estate regulation and control. Cities can adjust real estate policies according to local conditions.

　　The last round of large-scale adjustments to the purchase restriction policy took place during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" in 2023. In just a week or so, many hot cities including Shenyang, Nanjing, Dalian, Lanzhou, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, etc. have completely canceled purchase restriction policies. Prior to this, hot cities such as Foshan, Dongguan, Yangzhou, and Jiaxing had fully relaxed purchase restrictions.

　　Among the cities that have not completely abolished purchase restriction policies, in addition to the first-tier cities, there are also popular second-tier cities such as Tianjin, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Changsha, and Chengdu. Expectations for the next round of policy adjustments in these cities are also increasing.

　　"In the short term, Beijing and Shenzhen are expected to further optimize their property market policies. Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are expected to refer to Guangzhou and Chengdu to optimize large-family purchase restriction policies, optimize purchase restrictions based on needs and districts, and second-tier cities are expected to completely cancel restrictive policies." Liu Shui said , as more cities optimize their property market policies and implement superimposed financing coordination mechanisms to take effect, the real estate market is expected to recover. (over)