In 2023, with the effective implementation of a series of "combination punches" of stabilizing growth policies, the industrial economy will show a steady and upward trend throughout the year. The overall scale of my country's manufacturing industry has remained the first in the world for 14 consecutive years.
Entering 2024, my country's manufacturing industry continues to perform well and releases positive signals. Recently, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics jointly released the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January 2024. The value was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from December last year, ending the consecutive 3 months of downward momentum.
"The PMI index rebounded slightly in January, ending three consecutive months of decline, indicating that factors for economic stabilization have increased." Zhang Liqun, a special analyst at the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that both the production index and the purchase volume index have rebounded, indicating that Enterprise production shows signs of recovery. This is consistent with the efforts made since the beginning of the year by all parts of the country, especially the economically major provinces, to actively plan their plans and shoulder the heavy burden in boosting the economy.
Zhang Liqun said that we must promptly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, achieve significant results as soon as possible in using government investment to drive the expansion of domestic demand, and strive to consolidate and enhance the positive momentum of economic recovery.
From an industry perspective, all four major industries are showing signs of stabilization and improvement. New driving forces have continued the trend of steady growth since the fourth quarter of 2023. The equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, remaining in the expansion range for five consecutive months. The high-tech manufacturing PMI was 51.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from December last year. The growth of high-tech manufacturing has accelerated. The consumer goods manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from December last year, indicating that the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased compared with December last year. The PMI of the basic raw materials industry was 47.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from December last year, rising for 2 consecutive months, and the industry showed a stable operation trend.
Wen Tao, a researcher at the China Logistics Information Center, analyzed that overall, in January 2024, my country's economy achieved a stable start, production activities continued to grow reasonably, industrial linkage was operating well, and corporate vitality was also constantly improving.
Judging from the 13 sub-indices, compared with December last year, the production index, new order index, new export order index, finished goods inventory index, purchase volume index, import index and supplier delivery time index increased. The index increase was in Between 0.2 and 1.6 percentage points; the backlog index, purchase price index, ex-factory price index, raw material inventory index, employee index and production and operation activity expectation index fell, with the index decline ranging from 0.1 to 1.9 percentage points.
Wen Tao pointed out that in January, driven by my country's ultra-large-scale market advantages and the policy of expanding demand, my country's manufacturing market demand stabilized and rebounded, with the new order index at 49%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from December last year. Among them, the consumer goods manufacturing industry is more prominent. Driven by holiday consumption and Spring Festival consumption expectations, the market demand for consumer goods has been released relatively quickly. At the same time, many places are actively pursuing projects to stimulate market demand for basic raw materials to stabilize.
Data show that the new export orders index was 47.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from December last year. In this regard, Wen Tao said that it can be seen from the data that foreign market demand is stabilizing and improving. The main reason is that the recent rapid growth in foreign demand for my country's ships, automobiles, basic raw materials, and computer, communication and electronic equipment has led to significant improvements in the exports of the equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and basic raw material industries. "Taken together, domestic and foreign market demand in the manufacturing industry stabilized and rebounded in January, and the economic momentum increased."
In January, as the market demand stabilized and rebounded, and companies increased their willingness to increase inventories of finished products to prepare for future sales and exports, manufacturing production activities accelerated growth. The production index was 51.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from December last year. It has been operating in the expansion range for eight consecutive months, indicating that production activities continue to maintain reasonable growth.
In this regard, Wen Tao further stated that at present, we should continue to deepen the implementation of various policies to stabilize the economy, promote growth and expand demand, and at the same time actively optimize the business environment in various places, fully release economic vitality, and consolidate the foundation for economic stability and good operation.
People's Daily reporter Qiao Xuefeng