China News Service, January 31. According to the National Bureau of Statistics website, on January 31, 2024, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation.
In January, the manufacturing purchasing managers index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.2%, 50.7% and 50.9% respectively, an increase of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. my country's economic prosperity level has improved. pick up.
Manufacturing purchasing managers index rebounds
In January, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.2%, indicating an improvement in the prosperity level.
(1) The expansion of the production index accelerated. The production index was 51.3%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and reaching the highest level in nearly four months. From an industry perspective, the production index of food and alcoholic beverages, refined tea, papermaking and printing, cultural, educational, sports and entertainment supplies, and medicine is above 53.0%, and the production of related industries is expanding rapidly; chemical raw materials and chemical products, chemical fibers, rubber and plastic products and The production index of non-metallic mineral products and other industries is in the contraction range, and corporate production activities have slowed down.
(2) The new orders index has rebounded. The new orders index was 49.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new export orders index, which reflects external demand, increased by 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. The prosperity of domestic and external market demand has improved. From the perspective of key industries, the new order index of equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries was 50.3%, 50.2% and 50.3% respectively, all above the critical point; the new order index of high energy-consuming industries was 47.0%, continuing to be at the critical point point below, market demand is still insufficient.
(3) The PMI of large enterprises rose to the expansion range. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The prosperity level has rebounded. The survey results show that more than 70% of large enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of 80.0% or more, indicating that enterprises are releasing production capacity quickly; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises is 48.9%. , an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level has improved; the PMI of small enterprises was 47.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level was low.
(4) Enterprise expectations are basically stable. Affected by the approaching Spring Festival holiday and the traditional production off-season in some industries, the production and operation activity expectation index is 54.0%, which continues to be in the expansion range. Enterprise confidence in future market development is generally stable. From an industry perspective, the expected index of production and operation activities in industries such as medicine, special equipment, automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace equipment, etc. is in the high-prosperity range above 56.0%, and companies are more optimistic about recent market development expectations.
The expansion of the non-manufacturing business activity index accelerated
In January, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing industry continued its steady expansion.
(1) The service industry business activity index rose to the expansion range. The business activity index of the service industry was 50.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level has rebounded. From an industry perspective, 13 of the 21 industries surveyed were in the expansion zone, 4 more than last month, and the service industry's prosperity has expanded. Driven by the holiday effect, residents' willingness to travel and consume has increased, the business activity index of retail, road transportation, air transportation, catering and other industries has risen to the expansion range, and market activity has rebounded; business activities in industries such as railway transportation, postal services, and monetary and financial services have The indices are all in the high-prosperity range of 60.0% and above, and the total business volume is growing rapidly. At the same time, the business activity index of capital market services, real estate and other industries is running at a low level, and the prosperity level is weak. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 59.3%, which was basically the same as last month and continued to be in a relatively high prosperity range. Service industry companies have stable confidence in the market development prospects.
(2) The business activity index of the construction industry has declined. Affected by factors such as low temperature weather in winter and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the construction industry has entered the off-season of construction. The business activity index was 53.9%, a decrease of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 61.9%, which continues to be in the high and prosperous range, indicating that construction industry companies have strong confidence in market development.
Comprehensive PMI output index continues to expand
In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that make up the comprehensive PMI output index were 51.3% and 50.7% respectively.