Refined oil prices will rise! It is expected to cost about 7.5 yuan more to fill up a box.

　　China-Singapore Jingwei, January 31 (Xiong Siyi) At 24:00 on the 31st, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. Institutions generally expect that the retail price limit of refined oil products is likely to be raised this time.

　　During this pricing cycle, international crude oil prices fluctuated and strengthened, falling slightly on the 29th. Data showed that WTI March crude oil futures closed down $1.23, or 1.58%, on the 29th, at $76.78 per barrel. Brent March crude oil futures closed down $1.15, or 1.38%, on the 29th, at $82.4 per barrel.

Screenshot of PetroChina official website

　　Zhuochuang Information analyst Wang Luqing analyzed that international crude oil has maintained a volatile and strong market recently, driven by two factors: First, the extremely cold weather in the United States has led to a decline in crude oil production, and crude oil inventories have continued to be destocked, giving rise to oil prices. Second, China continues to release favorable policies, and oil demand is expected to increase further. In addition, the market remains cautious about disturbances in the Middle East, and the geopolitical premium brought about by the disturbances in the Red Sea continues to exist, which also supports the strong operation of crude oil prices.

　　According to Zhuochuang Information's calculations, as of the close of trading on January 29, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was 4.13% on the ninth working day, and gasoline and diesel prices are expected to increase by 180 yuan/ton. Calculated based on the current range, it is expected that the per liter increase of 92# gasoline and 0# diesel on January 31 will be around 1.5 cents.

　　According to Jin Lianchuang's calculations, the change rate on the eighth working day is 3.34%, and the average price of reference oil is US$77.58. Domestic gasoline and diesel should be increased by 170 yuan/ton.

　　Since 2024, domestic refined oil prices have undergone two rounds of adjustments, showing a "one rise and one fall" pattern, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by a cumulative 150 yuan and 140 yuan per ton respectively. If this increase is realized, domestic refined oil prices will show a "two rises and one fall" pattern.

　　According to the "ten working days" principle, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be at 24:00 on February 19 after the Spring Festival.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, Lu Qiaohui, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, believes that the international crude oil market continues to pay attention to the impact of the Red Sea and the Russia-Ukraine conflict on crude oil supply interruptions. However, the economic stimulus policies from China are benefiting the oil market.

　　Lu Qiaohui said that although there will be large-scale persistent rain, snow and freezing weather in central and eastern my country, 10 provinces will experience blizzards or heavy snowfalls. The cumulative snowfall in Henan, Shandong, Hubei and other places is extreme, and the demand for gasoline and diesel and transportation will be affected to varying degrees. However, this week is about to enter a new round of sales cycle. Sales pressure has been suspended. In addition, there is still demand for stocking before the Spring Festival. The willingness of main business units to raise prices has increased. The short-term decline may be restrained.

(China-Singapore Jingwei APP)

All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. No unit or individual may reproduce, excerpt or use in other ways without written authorization.

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so please be cautious when entering the market.)