Recently, the two sessions at the provincial level have been held intensively, and various regions have released their "report cards" for 2023 and finalized their "mission statements" for 2024, releasing a positive signal for striving for stable economic growth and accelerating high-quality development.
The expected growth rate in many places is not less than 5%
The reporter found that as of January 29, judging from the provinces that have announced their expected growth targets for 2024, most of the expected growth rates are between 5% and 6%.
Specifically, Guangdong's expected growth rate is 5%, higher than its 4.8% growth rate in 2023. Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Qinghai are about 5%; Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangxi are more than 5%; Henan is 5.5%; Hebei, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guizhou, and Shaanxi are about 5.5%; and Jilin is about 5.5%. , Anhui, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Gansu, and Ningxia are about 6%. As the leading provinces in economic growth in 2023, Hainan and Tibet have set their growth targets for 2024 at around 8%. Tianjin's economic growth target is about 4.5%, which is lower than other provinces, but still higher than its 4.3% economic growth level in 2023.
Zhang Xin, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, believes that Beijing's setting a growth target of about 5% is a need to stabilize expectations and boost confidence, to achieve important people's livelihood goals such as employment and residents' income, and to take the lead in basically realizing socialist modernization. needs and the need to connect with the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are in line with the economic operating situation and are possible to achieve. However, growth of around 5% is still very challenging and requires hard work.
In 2024, the expected growth target of Chongqing’s regional GDP is about 6%. Chongqing Mayor Hu Henghua said that the above goals are based on the characteristics of Chongqing's development stage, taking into account the growth potential, practical conditions and the requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals. Take the initiative and strive to achieve better results in practical work.
Not only do they have “quantitative” targets, some provinces also clearly set out “qualitative” targets. For example, Shanghai proposes that in 2024, the proportion of total social R&D expenditures equivalent to the city's GDP will reach about 4.5%, energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will further decline, and key projects will reduce emissions of major pollutants. Quantitatively complete the national goals. Zhejiang Province proposes that the added value of core industries in the digital economy will grow by about 9% in 2024, and the digital transformation coverage rate of industrial enterprises above designated size will reach 85%.
"The economic growth targets proposed by the two sessions in various regions reflect the drive to fight for the economy in the new year." Wei Qijia, director of the Industrial Economic Research Office of the Economic Forecast Department of the National Information Center, said that our country is still in a critical period of economic recovery, transformation and upgrading. Looking forward to 2024, in accordance with the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, all regions adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, and establishing first and then breaking. The positive economic rebound will continue to be consolidated and enhanced, thereby promoting the qualitative and effective improvement of the economy and Reasonable growth in quantity.
A major economic province takes the lead
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that economically major provinces should truly take the lead and make greater contributions to stabilizing the national economy.
In 2023, Guangdong became the first province in the country to exceed 13 trillion yuan, ranking first in the country for 35 consecutive years. The total economic output of Guangzhou, the provincial capital, has also passed the 3 trillion yuan mark. Not only in terms of economic aggregate, there will be more than 71,000 industrial enterprises above designated size and more than 75,000 high-tech enterprises in Guangdong Province in 2023, both ranking first in the country. The comprehensive regional innovation capabilities have ranked first in the country for 7 consecutive years. Wang Weizhong, the governor of Guangdong Province, said that he must resolutely shoulder the responsibility of "a major economic province that really takes the lead." Seize every favorable opportunity, take advantage of all favorable conditions, work as hard as you can, and work as hard as you can.
The Zhejiang Provincial Government Work Report proposed that we should continue to promote the "Eight-Eighth Strategy" to deepen and consolidate, solidly promote the construction of common prosperity demonstration areas, vigorously promote innovation, deepen reform, tackle opening up and improve, and use the three "No. 1 Projects" as the overall guidance to deepen Implement the "Ten Major Projects" to promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy, and bravely take the lead and make more contributions to the overall situation of the country.
The Sichuan Provincial Government Work Report revealed that Sichuan has a good foundation for economic and social development, relatively strong strength, and many major opportunities for the implementation of national strategies. It is necessary to further enhance confidence and confidence, show the courage to face difficulties, and improve the ability to resolve crises. With the ability to serve as an opportunity, we can promote the province's high-quality development and effectively shoulder the important task of "really taking the lead in a large economic province".
Feng Kui, vice chairman of the China Regional Science Association, believes that "big beams" correspond to the overall situation of national economic construction and the overall situation of the country's chess game. Provinces with large economies have comprehensive advantages in economic development, and other provinces also have their own comparative advantages in food production, energy security, ecological protection, etc. The major economic provinces taking the lead further reflect that my country is accelerating the formation of a new development pattern. It is an important measure to optimize the layout of major productive forces and build a regional economic layout and land space system that complements each other's advantages and develops with high quality.
In Feng Kui’s view, for major economic provinces to take the lead, they must not only pursue reasonable and rapid growth in quantity, but also pursue effective and sustained improvement in quality. Economically large provinces are already at the forefront of the country in terms of technological innovation and modern industrial system construction. However, compared with world-class economic development regions, there is still much room for improvement in developing new productive forces and increasing total factor productivity. At the same time, economically large provinces should also be the first provinces to realize Chinese-style modernization and give full play to their role as demonstrations and leaders.
Expanding domestic demand is an important starting point
Judging from the situation of the local two sessions, in 2024, various regions will continue to take multiple measures to expand domestic demand, stimulate potential consumption, expand profitable investment, and form a virtuous cycle in which consumption and investment promote each other.
Various places have made a lot of efforts to promote the continued expansion of consumption. For example, Guangdong Province proposed to accelerate the construction of the Greater Bay Area as an international consumption hub, support Guangzhou and Shenzhen in building international consumption center cities, cultivate six regional consumption center cities, strengthen the layout of consumption infrastructure, and build demonstration smart business districts and characteristic pedestrian streets. Shanghai proposes to accelerate the construction of an international consumption center city, deepen the construction of the world's first launch site for new products, and implement actions to improve the energy level of business districts. Beijing proposes to boost bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles and electronic products, promote equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, cultivate and expand new types of consumption, and vigorously develop digital consumption, green consumption, and healthy consumption. Heilongjiang proposed to continue to carry out two "100-day actions" for summer summer vacation and winter ice and snow tourism. The number of tourists during the ice and snow season exceeded 100 million, and tourism revenue exceeded 150 billion yuan.
Expanding effective investment is the most important task for various regions to expand domestic demand. Jiangsu Province proposed to focus on the 102 major engineering investment projects and 450 major provincial projects included in the national "14th Five-Year Plan" and increase the construction of new infrastructure. The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region proposed to focus on investment in key areas such as key core technology research, new infrastructure, energy conservation and emission reduction, cultivating new development momentum, accelerating the improvement of weak links in economic and social weak areas, and flood control, drainage and disaster relief infrastructure. Gansu Province proposes to make greater efforts to promote effective investment, make full use of multiple policy opportunities, strengthen the construction of major projects, promote energy development and utilization, improve project planning levels, make up for shortcomings, adjust the structure, increase stamina, and play the key to effective investment. effect.
All localities will further do a good job in promoting private investment. Guangdong Province proposes to improve the investment and financing mechanism, implement a new mechanism for cooperation between the government and social capital, refine and introduce a catalog of key industries to encourage private investment, and continue to promote demonstration projects and application scenarios to private capital, so that private investment can come in and exit. There is a good shot and a good shot. Sichuan Province revealed that it will strongly encourage private enterprises to actively participate in new projects jointly developed by the government and social capital.
Wei Qijia believes that in 2024, all regions will pay special attention to releasing the potential of domestic demand. As the policies to promote consumption take effect, consumption potential will continue to be released. The basic role of consumption in driving economic growth will be enhanced, and the main position of the domestic macrocycle will be further consolidated. In addition, as the construction of major projects and key projects accelerates, the scale of effective investment continues to expand, and its key role in stabilizing growth will continue to play a role. (Economic Daily reporter Xiong Li and Han Bingzhi)