In July 2023, Chinese foreign cars occupied more than half of the Russian market for new passenger cars. This was reported on Friday, August 4, in the analytical agency "AUTOSTAT".
"We have been waiting for this for a long time and even conducted a survey on whether the share of Chinese brands in the Russian market will exceed 50%. Well, in July it is already 52%, and further striving upwards, it is coming, "said Sergey Tselikov, director of the company.
According to the organization, a year ago, only 24% of cars sold in the Russian Federation belonged to brands from China. The share of Russian brands has not changed over the past time and now stands at 31%. At the same time, the presence of Korean models has decreased from 21% to 6%, European models from 13% to 4%, Japanese models from 10% to 5%, and American models still occupy only about 1%.
In the near future, the emerging trend will continue to intensify, and by the end of this year, the share of Chinese cars in the Russian market may reach 60%. This opinion was shared in an interview with RT by the head of the research and customer analytics group at Avto.ru Alexei Mukhanov.
"Since the official supply of cars of European, Japanese and Korean brands has decreased, Chinese brands have become the easiest and most affordable option for buying a new car from an authorized dealer with a manufacturer's warranty. It is also an alternative for those buyers who are not ready to purchase a car imported through parallel imports, "the specialist explained.
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According to AUTOSTAT, in July 2023, Russians bought about 95.7 thousand new cars. This is almost three times more than in the same period in 2022, when sales fell sharply amid Western sanctions and the departure of foreign brands.
The best-selling cars last month were Lada cars - a total of 27.4 thousand cars of this brand were bought in the country. In addition, Chinese foreign cars Chery (10.7 thousand), Geely (8.8 thousand), Haval (8.5 thousand), Changan (5.2 thousand), Omoda (4.6 thousand) and Exeed (3.7 thousand), Korean Kia (3.2 thousand) and Hyundai (2.7 thousand), as well as Japanese Toyota (2.3 thousand) are now very popular among the population.
"We have seen a steady increase in demand for new cars since the beginning of 2023. Chinese models were able to quickly provide an offer in the most popular segment of mid-size crossovers, and sedans and premium models are already appearing on the market, "said Alexey Mukhanov.
It is noteworthy that a year ago, about 73% of cars sold in the Russian Federation were produced domestically: 31% belonged to domestic brands, and 42% to Russian-assembled foreign cars. At the same time, imported cars accounted for only 27% of sales: 18% were official deliveries, and 9% were parallel imports - the mechanism allows you to import original foreign products into the country without the consent of the copyright holders.
Now cars produced in Russia occupy 44% of the market: 32% are domestic models, and 12% are foreign cars assembled in the Russian Federation. In turn, the share of cars imported from abroad increased to 56%: about 42% are official deliveries mainly by distributors of Chinese brands, and 14% are parallel imports.
"In general, in recent years, the Chinese auto industry in the eyes of the Russian consumer has overcome the reputational path from unreliable fragile trash to a completely worthy competitor to Korean, European and American cars. The Celestial Empire took into account its own mistakes and adopted the positive experience of global concerns, in which Chinese capital participates. Therefore, now they offer quite decent cars at fairly affordable prices, which is especially important for Russia in the face of rising exchange rates, "Artyom Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets, told RT.
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According to The Wall Street Journal, this year Russia came out on top among buyers of Chinese cars. This, in turn, helped Beijing become the largest exporter of cars in the world.
"Car production in China is developing at a gigantic pace. Moreover, there have long been a large number of companies in the country that offer cars in expensive, budget and middle class segments. That is, the Chinese auto industry was ready for expansion and rapid replacement of brands that left the Russian market. At the same time, Chinese cars are really cheaper, "Pavel Segal, first vice-president of the All-Russian Public Organization of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses Opora Rossii, told RT.
According to AUTOSTAT, now the price of a new Chinese car is on average 3.03 million rubles. Since the beginning of this year, the figure has increased by about 2%. During the same time, Russian models rose in price by 5% - up to 1.02 million rubles, Korean - by 13%, to 3.59 million, Japanese - by 1%, to 4.51 million, American - by 122%, to 6.94 million, and European - by 45%, to 8.76 million.
"The most important thing is spare parts. Problems with their supplies are not yet expected. The main fear of motorists is always that they will not be able to find the necessary parts or will have to wait a long time for them. Against this background, in brands from China, Russians saw not just a way out, but a completely acceptable alternative to Western foreign cars. Therefore, I think that the presence of Chinese cars in our country will continue to grow, and I see this as the main driver of the industry's recovery," Artem Deev emphasized.
With an eye on prices
In total, last year, sales of new cars in the country fell by almost 2.5 times. So, if back in 2021 the Russians bought about 1.52 million cars from the assembly line, then by the end of 2022 the value decreased to 626 thousand, according to AUTOSTAT.
However, according to the agency's experts, already in 2023, the market will be able to win back some of these losses. So, according to the company's baseline forecast, from January to December, sales of passenger cars may increase by 48% - up to 930 thousand units. Under the pessimistic scenario, the figure will grow by only 34%, to 840 thousand, and under the optimistic scenario - by 60%, to 1 million, the organization said. Alexei Mukhanov adheres to a similar assessment.
"Most likely, by the end of 2023, sales of new cars will really approach the mark of 1 million units. If this trend continues to reach the pre-crisis level - up to 1.5 million units - the market will be able to return as early as 2024-2025. At the same time, due to a number of remaining objective difficulties, it is now quite difficult to make accurate forecasts, "said the interlocutor of RT.
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According to Sergey Tselikov, several important factors for the market can have an impact on sales dynamics. First of all, we are talking about the indexation of the recycling fee for cars imported into Russia for subsequent resale. Since August 1, for passenger cars, the amount of payment has increased by an average of 1.7-3.7 times, depending on the engine size.
According to AUTOSTAT, the increase in waste collection will ultimately have an impact on the final prices both at dealers and in the market as a whole, as a result of which cars will become more expensive. However, some experts believe that the effect of this process should not be exaggerated and indexation will affect the cost of a car much less than, for example, exchange rate fluctuations.
"Quite a significant factor that affects (the market. - RT) in two or three months - this is the depreciation of the ruble. Now the exchange rate is again more than 90 rubles per dollar, and the currency component in any car assembled in Russia or abroad is very large. That is, prices will move further even more actively upwards, "Tselikov concluded.