According to the analyst, in early June, a meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC+ deal was held, at which Saudi Arabia decided to further reduce the level of oil production from July 1, 2023.
Chernov believes that this fact will affect the market no earlier than in two to three months.
"Earlier in early April, several countries participating in the OPEC+ deal announced a voluntary reduction in oil production levels from May 1, 2023, which will also affect prices in about 2-3 months. At the beginning of the year, Russia promised to voluntarily reduce oil production levels... Already in the third quarter of 2023, we can expect a gradual increase in world oil prices towards $80 per barrel of the benchmark Brent grade," he said.
The analyst noted that the situation with the Chinese economy will also be important for world oil prices, since if its recovery accelerates, the demand for petroleum products will increase and prices will follow it.
"Pressure on world oil prices will be exerted by a slowdown in the global economy, a recession in the eurozone, which it entered at the end of the first quarter of 2023, as well as high risks of a global recession. However, the OPEC+ countries have made it clear who "rules the score" in the world oil market, so we believe that they will continue to fight to stabilize world oil prices above $ 80 per barrel, if necessary, reducing oil production quotas, "the RT interlocutor concluded.
Earlier, Maxim Achkasov, Managing Director of M.I. Achkasov & Co, admitted high inflation in the global economy in 2025-2026 against the backdrop of rising oil prices.