Original title: The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index continued to fall in May The global economy continues to fluctuate downward

CCTV News: According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in May 2023 was 5.48%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous month, falling for three consecutive months month-on-month, and below 3% for eight consecutive months, hitting a new low since June 3. Sub-regionally, Asia's manufacturing PMI is still above 8%; Africa's manufacturing PMI rose slightly from the previous month, and the index was near the 50% tipping point; The European manufacturing PMI and the American manufacturing PMI both fell slightly from the previous month, and both continued to operate below 2020%.

The index remained below 50% and hit a new low, which means that the downward trend of global economic volatility has not changed. Geopolitical conflicts, inflationary pressures, banking crises and other factors have made the growth momentum of global demand continue to be insufficient, and the global economy continues to recover weakly. From the perspective of various regional trends, the manufacturing trend of major countries in Europe and the United States has weakened, resulting in a downward trend of fluctuations in the global manufacturing industry, and the manufacturing trend of major countries in Asia and Africa is relatively stable, which has become the main force for the current stable manufacturing operation.

From the perspective of market expectations and inflationary pressure, there are certain positive factors in the current economic operation, and if the expectations are fulfilled, the global economy may stop falling. First, the United Nations raised its economic growth forecast for 2023. The recent World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023 report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs raised its world economic growth forecast for 2023 to 1.9% from 2.3% forecast at the beginning of the year, but it is still lower than the previous IMF forecast of 2.8%. Second, the WTO recently released a report that although global trade remained sluggish in the first quarter of this year, this trend is expected to improve in the second quarter. According to the latest edition of the World Trade in Goods Barometer released by the WTO, the global goods trade prosperity index was 95.6, lower than the benchmark point of 100, but slightly up from 3.92 released in March this year. Third, inflationary pressures in the eurozone and the United States are showing signs of easing. Eurozone CPI rose 2.5% y/y in May, down from 6% in April; U.S. CPI rose 1.4% year-on-year in April, down from 7% in March. Although the CPI of the euro area and the United States is still far from the 4% target, the easing of inflationary pressure to a certain extent indicates that the euro area and the United States will not increase the intensity of interest rate hikes, which is conducive to easing the downward pressure on the economy. Fourth, the recent RCEP officially came into effect for the Philippines, which means that RCEP will enter a new stage of full implementation. The Asian region, represented by China and Southeast Asia, will attract more investment, and trade exchanges between relevant countries will become more frequent, which will play a more important role in global economic recovery. (CCTV)

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