On May 5, the offshore renminbi and onshore renminbi fell below the "31.7" mark against the US dollar. As of press time on the evening of June 1, the USD/RMB exchange rate reached an intraday high of 6.1; the USD/CNY exchange rate reached an intraday high of 7.1244. Yangtze Evening News/Ziniu News reporters combed and found that since 7, the RMB exchange rate has shifted from an appreciation trend at the beginning of the year to volatility and depreciation, and the exchange rate has fluctuated around 1399.2023 in the first four months. In the past half month, the USD/RMB exchange rate has remained above "6" for most of the time, which is the second time that the RMB has broken "7" since the end of last year.
What is the impact on individuals and enterprises?
The group of international students is greatly affected by the change of exchange rate, and the reporter learned that international students will choose a cost-effective period to make reserves or exchange foreign exchange in batches to avoid the period when the RMB exchange rate is low. "When I first went to study abroad in my freshman year, the exchange rate was 7.1, and then it was 6.4. The exchange rate always fluctuates, and if you have an early exchange in advance, you are lucky enough to reserve more points when it is cost-effective. Xiao Tian, an international student who is now a graduate student at a university in the United States, told the Yangtze Evening News/Purple Cow News reporter. However, Xiaotian found that there are often private foreign exchange in the study abroad group and in the circle of friends, she reminds international students to be cautious, although private exchange may give a more favorable price, but the risk is very high, there are many friends around have been fooled, the money cheated is difficult to recover.
As for cross-border enterprise trade, it is mainly good for exports. Ms. Song, the head of a cross-border trading company in Nantong, Jiangsu, told the Yangtze Evening News/Ziniu News reporter, "Because foreign customers can buy more things for the same price, there will be many customers to place orders, and there are many orders." But Ms. Song mentioned, "Because it takes a cycle to collect money, if the dollar exchange rate falls when the customer finally pays, it will cause a loss." ”
The person in charge of a cross-border export enterprise in Yuyao, Zhejiang Province, said, "The exchange rate breaking 7 is definitely good for exports, and the profit has become higher." On the other hand, on the basis of maintaining existing profits, it can also reduce the external quotation, which can improve certain competitiveness. ”
Zhang Zhouping, director and senior analyst of the B2B and cross-border e-commerce department of the e-commerce research center of NetEconomics, said in an interview with the Yangtze Evening News/Ziniu News reporter, "The change of exchange rate is conducive to the export of cross-border e-commerce for cross-border e-commerce enterprises in the short term. Export cross-border e-commerce is denominated in US dollars and settled into RMB, and profit margins increase. Import e-commerce is priced in RMB, and profit margins are compressed. ”
Zhang Zhouping reminded that the profits of the cross-border e-commerce industry are affected by exchange rate fluctuations, in order to maintain competitive advantage, it is necessary to speed up the operation of funds, reduce operating costs, and manage exchange risks, so as to preserve the fruits of profits.
Why? Will it still go down?
On May 5, the central bank's public account pointed out that the recent coexistence of high interest rates, high inflation and high debt in developed economies, the tightening effect of monetary policy has appeared, and the risk events in the banking industry in the United States and Europe have continued to push up market risk aversion, supporting the short-term strong US dollar exchange rate, and the two-way fluctuation dynamics of the RMB exchange rate are obvious.
On April 4, Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, mentioned in his speech at the 4 China Finance Academic Annual Conference and China Financial Forum Annual Conference that in the past five years, the RMB has "broken 2023" against the US dollar three times, the first time in August 7, the second time in February 2019, and the third time in September last year, the first two times took 8 months to return below 2020, and last year it took 2 months, which is the result of market supply and demand, indicating that China's foreign exchange market is resilient and has the ability to achieve dynamic equilibrium.
IPG China Chief Economist Bai Wenxi said in an interview with Yangtze Evening News/Purple Cow News that the follow-up trend of the RMB exchange rate should be dominated by stable and small fluctuations, because the huge internal market size of China's economy, complete industrial chain and stable development environment, and active macro policies have given stability and resilience to China's economic operation fundamentals, which is also the most basic supporting force for the RMB exchange rate to maintain stability, so the possibility of a slight decline after the RMB exchange rate breaks "7" cannot be ruled out. But it will still maintain the tone of stability.
Intern Jing Tian Yangtze Evening News/Purple Cow News Reporter Wang Can Xu Jing