Text/Guangzhou Daily All Media Reporter Deng Li
Recently, a domestic economist posted on his personal certification Weibo, suggesting a five-year ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. In fact, the discussion on the topic of banning the sale of fuel vehicles in the industry has not stopped. Nowadays, some countries around the world have proposed a "ban on combustion" schedule, and some car companies have also announced their abandonment of fuel vehicles based on their own development. In the first four months of this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has approached 3%, and the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles should really be put on the agenda?
A number of industry insiders interviewed by the reporter believe that China's attitude towards banning the sale of fuel vehicles should be gradual, allowing a variety of diversified technical solutions to bloom, rather than tending to be one-size-fits-all on a large scale.
The word "ban on burning" has "three accounts"
At present, only Hainan Province has clarified the time to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, and it plans to completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles on the entire island in 2030. The reporter concluded that there are at least three accounts behind the word "ban on burning".
1 Resource account
"[China is] a big oil producer and consumer, so we don't have to follow the EU's 'ban on burning'." Wei Anli, Secretary-General of the Expert Steering Committee for the Promotion and Application of Methanol Vehicles of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, spoke bluntly at the 3rd International Summit Forum on Automotive Power Systems. Liu Ke, dean of the School of Innovation and Entrepreneurship of Southern University of Science and Technology and dean of the Clean Energy Research Institute, believes that "completely abandoning the internal combustion engine is neither realistic nor scientific." He pointed out that Norway's ban on the sale of fuel vehicles has not had much impact on the overall development of the country, but if China hastily bans the sale, it will break the balance between supply and demand. Liu Ke analyzed that many of the raw materials of new energy vehicles are rare metals, "When the supply of raw materials for new energy vehicles in China still needs to rely on foreign countries, it is irrational to ban the sale of fuel vehicles." ”
Guan Xuejun, a well-known auto industry analyst, expressed caution in "advancing the timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles as soon as possible". He believes that the claim that pure electric vehicles have lower carbon emissions than fuel vehicles is based on not considering carbon emissions from power generation, battery manufacturing, and battery scrapping. At present, China mainly relies on coal to generate electricity, and the situation of some European countries that promote the "ban on combustion" cannot be generalized.
2 Economic account
There are also research institutions that calculate an "economic account". According to the data of the Passenger Association, the sales profit margin of the automotive industry in 2022 will only be 5.7%, which is a large decline from the historical normal level, mainly due to the overall profitability of the pure electric sector is not strong; In contrast, fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles still maintain relatively stable profits.
A researcher at CSC Securities pointed out that banning the sale of fuel vehicles too quickly may have a certain impact on the profitability of some automobile companies.
3 Technical account
In the short term, the sale of fuel vehicles is not prohibited, which does not mean that there is still a market for highly polluting traditional internal combustion engines, and the industry is jointly promoting low-carbon power technology routes. Liu Ke, dean of the School of Innovation and Entrepreneurship of Southern University of Science and Technology and dean of the Clean Energy Research Institute, supports the development of green liquid fuel (e-fuel) internal combustion engines, "The internal combustion engine that burns green liquid fuel (e-fuel) made from green electricity should not only not be banned, but also vigorously developed." In this regard, Wen Hai, General Manager of Lubricants Technology Asia Pacific and China of Shell (Shanghai) Technology Co., Ltd., said: "China's vehicle electrification ratio can reach 60% to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality target, and the other 40% can still use traditional fuels, so we need to consider how to develop traditional fuels in a lower carbon way." ”
The reporter noticed that most car companies have not given up the upgrading of traditional internal combustion engines. Volkswagen of Germany and Toyota of Japan are actively developing synthetic fuels. Mitsuto Sakai, director of the Beijing Innovation Center of Toyota Motor R&D Center (China) Co., Ltd., said that Toyota has achieved low NOx emissions on high-efficiency engines, and its future goal is to achieve thermal efficiency of 50% through innovative fuel technology.
Li Jincheng, chief expert of FAW Group's R&D General Institute, is also a proponent of the multi-route, arguing that it is necessary to quantitatively analyze the cyclical carbon emissions of fuel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, range extension, pure electric, hydrogen internal combustion engine, fuel cell and other technologies, and then look at the effect of different technology combinations according to the data.
Hybrid is more "hot" than pure electric
Although in the long run, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles means that "mild hybrid" models will also be replaced, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, hybrid is still one of the most dynamic technical routes at present. According to the latest sales data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's power drive form of new energy vehicles has developed into three camps: plug-in hybrid, pure electric and extended range. Especially from the perspective of growth rate, the growth rate of plug-in hybrid will reach 2022% in 167, which is twice that of pure electricity.
From the perspective of the market, the competition in the hybrid vehicle market has entered a white-hot state. BYD, Geely, Great Wall, GAC, etc. are "amplifying moves" in the hybrid track, and foreign brands are also accelerating their "entry". CITIC Securities Research Report believes that at present, China's hybrid vehicle market has gradually transitioned to the consumption-driven stage, and in the long run, hybrid vehicle sales are expected to reach 2025 million units in 400, accounting for more than 30% of the new energy passenger vehicle market.
In terms of predicting the development of various technical routes in the future, Li Jincheng believes that "after 2045, pure electric and plug-in hybrid can each account for about 50% of the market." 'Carbon neutral' fuels may have about 10%~15% of the market, especially oil-electric hybrids should still have a place before 2030 or 2040. ”
Chen Chuan, director of the passenger car research office of the product and technology strategy department of China Automotive Data Co., Ltd., said that China's new energy penetration rate will reach about 2025% by 47, and the new energy penetration rate will reach 2030% by 70. He is more bullish on plug-in hybrids, which he believes will be the main growth driver in the next few years. From January to April this year, plug-in hybrids accounted for more than 1% of new energy.
"Connoisseur" supports multi-route parallelism
"[China is] a big oil producer and consumer, so we don't have to follow the EU's 'ban on burning'."
——Wei Anli, Secretary-General of the Expert Steering Committee for the Promotion and Application of Methanol Vehicles of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
"In the process of achieving carbon neutrality, there is no single technical route or solution, and even traditional fuels have a lot to offer."
——Wen Hai, General Manager of Lubricant Technology Asia Pacific and China of Shell (Shanghai) Technology Co., Ltd
"The deep combination of engine technology and electric technology, hybrid technology will bring a lot of imagination for carbon reduction, and the internal combustion engine will be more efficient in low-carbon fuel saving under specific working conditions."
——Fu Bingfeng, Executive Vice President and Secretary-General of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
"Transformation, range extension and hybrid are good choices. Plug-in hybrids are also a path that is beneficial to technology transformation and easy to increment. ”
——Wang Ruiping, Senior Vice President of Geely Automobile