The delivery ratio of "guaranteed delivery building" projects has increased significantly, and consumption has continued to drive consumption to exert a "multiplier effect"

Reporter Xie Ruolin

Trainee reporter Mao Yirong

Since the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in July last year first put forward the task of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings", "guaranteeing the handover of buildings" has become the keyword of local policies and the key task of real estate enterprises. According to the statistics of the Centennial Construction Network, from March to May, through the investigation of the delivery of 7,3 guaranteed delivery projects across the country, the data shows that the proportion of guaranteed delivery projects in March was 5%, and the proportion of guaranteed delivery projects in May was 1114%, an increase of 3 percentage points.

Under the circumstances of policy support for real estate enterprises to reduce leverage, reduce debt, and "guarantee the delivery of buildings", the delivery of real estate completion continues to rise, coupled with the promotion of "transfer with mortgage", second-hand housing transactions have picked up, which will expand the consumption of bulk commodities such as home appliances.

IPG China Chief Economist Bai Wenxi told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the real estate industry chain is long, the industrial driving role is obvious, the contribution of the "guaranteed handover building" policy to driving consumption has a "multiplier effect" of investment and consumption, especially the increase in consumption of home appliances, furniture and building materials, reflected in the direct drive of incremental demand, so enterprises in the industrial chain of home appliances and furniture, building materials and other industrial chains should do a good job in preparing production and stocking and logistics arrangements according to market conditions, and better seize opportunities.

The policy continues to promote the "guaranteed handover of buildings"

Since the beginning of this year, the trend of supporting the "guaranteed handover of buildings" in various localities has continued. On May 5, according to the website of the Xi'an Municipal People's Government, the executive meeting of the municipal government emphasized that it is necessary to pay close attention to the difficult blocking problems of the "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings", consolidate the main responsibility of enterprises, and consolidate the responsibility of the local government and industry supervision.

In Bai Wenxi's view, the policy actively promotes the "guarantee of handover of buildings", making it the first meaning of local governments' work in the field of urban construction and housing enterprises, and urges regulatory departments, financial institutions, housing enterprises and other relevant parties to work together to put the work of "guaranteeing handover buildings" in the first place, one city, one enterprise, one policy, and one policy on the first floor to effectively promote "guaranteeing handover buildings" and resolving unfinished buildings, stabilizing social order and protecting the legitimate rights and interests of buyers. While the problem of stopping the construction of real estate, it also prevents the occurrence of the problem of unfinished and stoppage of new land.

Judging from the data, the effect of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" on promoting the completion and delivery of residential buildings has appeared. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April, the completed area of residential housing in China increased by 1.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 19.2% compared with the first quarter; From January to April, the sales area of residential commercial housing increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 1.4% compared with the first quarter.

From the perspective of financial support for the "guaranteed delivery of buildings" policy, last year the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China and other relevant departments issued measures to launch special loans, aiming to support the construction and delivery of residential projects that have been sold and overdue and difficult to deliver through special loans from policy banks. In addition, many regions coordinate financial resources through various methods to ensure the funding needs of projects.

In this regard, Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that thanks to the policy of point-to-point support for "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings", real estate projects can obtain funds to ensure the timely delivery of real estate. However, the delivery of "guaranteed delivery buildings" supported by special capital investment is limited, and the key is still to rely on good real estate market sales to achieve a virtuous circle.

Drive the consumption of post-cycle goods in real estate

The "guaranteed handover building" policy has a pulling effect on consumer goods such as home appliances, furniture and decoration materials. Zhang Deli, head of Zhongtai Macro Industry, said that one of the key tasks of real estate regulation and control in 2023 is to "guarantee the delivery of buildings", after the delivery of commercial housing, it will drive the consumption of real estate post-cycle commodities such as home appliances, furniture and building materials, in this context, "guaranteed delivery of buildings" will contribute beneficial increments to consumption.

In Yan Yuejin's view, from the construction level, in addition to the developer's purchase of home appliances and other houses for fine decoration, the owner's demand for spontaneous purchase of building materials and home appliances after the completion of the building also has more space. From the perspective of the national market, where the policy of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" is strong, the scale of housing enterprise project delivery is large, and the intensive delivery period will drive the market demand for building materials and home appliances.

It is worth noting that the active transaction volume of second-hand housing also has a pulling effect on the consumption of bulk commodities such as home appliances. Since the beginning of this year, driven by the "Xiaoyang Chun" of the property market, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and other cities has risen sharply, and the "transfer with charge" policy issued by the regulator, the transaction volume of second-hand housing is expected to be further active.

In addition, in the "pro-consumption" policies of various places, various measures such as consumer loans are used to encourage the expansion of consumption of home appliances and home improvement, which also helps to expand the consumption of home appliances.

Taking air conditioning as an example, the positive improvement in the completion of residential real estate, the active transaction volume of second-hand housing, and the encouragement of consumption promotion policies provide good support for domestic demand for air conditioning. According to industry online data, 4.1060 million units of air conditioners were shipped in April, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%.

In this regard, Yan Yuejin said that the "guaranteed handover of buildings" policy to drive the consumption of post-cycle commodities in real estate is radiating to the entire industrial chain of real estate, which can further boost the expectations of home appliances, furniture and building materials enterprises in the industrial chain.

Looking forward to the future, Bai Wenxi said that the policy of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" has a high correlation and long-term continuity in driving the consumption of real estate post-cycle commodities. Under the strong promotion of the "guaranteed handover building" work, the resumption of construction and continuation projects involve a wide range, the delivery speed and scale are further expanding, especially the investment in continuation and resumption of construction and its derivative demand and derivative demand also mean good market opportunities. (Securities Daily)