- Amortizing mortgage, the best alternative for saving
Spanish households that have signed variable-rate mortgages must assume at least two more years of high installments compared to what they paid monthly last summer. The latest forecasts prepared by Funcas contemplate a Euribor – which is the main reference that marks mortgage rates – close to 4% at the end of this year and that will not fall to around 3.5% until the end of 2024, which lengthens the agony of families who have seen how the prices soared.
interest to pay on the loans of their houses.
"There will be little change in the coming months. The tightening of monetary policy will continue and will be reflected in short-term intervention rates, although they will relax in the second part of 2024, "they say from the organization of savings banks.
According to calculations prepared by iAhorro,
An average mortgage
for cities such as Madrid or Barcelona of 300,000 euros to thirty years and a differential of 0.99% has suffered
an increase in your monthly fee of about 530 euros
, from the 1,000 euros that would be paying just a year ago, with a Euribor at 0.287% and a monthly rate of 1,000 euros, to the current 1,530 euros. And this is the result of Euribor rates at levels of 3.8%, which has stagnated at these levels in recent months, since since March it does not fall below 3.5% in its twelve-month calculation. This same example taken to the average mortgage in Spain, which is over 150,000 euros, the increase of the Euribor at rates of 4% means paying about 280 euros more per month, up to 765 euros.
Two out of ten mortgaged at a variable rate have difficulty paying their installments
, mainly due to the rise of the Euribor. And to further aggravate the problem, almost half of these customers say they have not received any help from their bank, "they point out from HelpMyCash, according to a survey of 1,300 users.
This week, the vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Luis de Guindos, acknowledged that in the rise in rates
"There is still a way to go"
. The market does not rule out that above the current levels of 3.25%, the European regulator approves another two hikes of 25 basis points before the end of July. And, even, the possibility that in September it will reach levels of 4% is assessed. If so, in fourteen months Christine Lagarde would have turned the deposit facility in the eurozone by 450 basis points at a speed never before seen in the European economy (nor was a ten-year period of zero rates). And this is a serious problem for family economies that have passed in a year from affordable quotas to
Effort rates that will exceed 40% of the gross salary of households in a few months
, point out from Bankinter. The latest available figure is 36%, according to the Bank of Spain, although in the middle of the 'real estate bubble' in our country it reached 50%.
To the increase in financial costs, which makes it difficult for families and companies to borrow because, basically, they have to pay more interest, the lower saving capacity of Spaniards in the face of skyrocketing prices has been added. This situation has caused
A fall in the sale of homes
. According to March data prepared by the INE (National Institute of Statistics), the sale of real estate fell by 5.7% compared to the same month of 2022. And this figure rises to a cut of 8.1% if the transaction is between individuals. And the data could get worse since these transactions are closed three months ahead, says Fotocasa. "Our forecast is that the real estate sector is going to stop. We are facing a change of cycle. We expect a fall in house prices of 5% in two years, with a fall in transactions of 20% in the same period," says Juan Moreno, real estate analyst at Bankinter, who points to several reasons, in addition to the cost of loans.
"Inflation is penalizing household savings" as it reduces their purchasing power. Funcas forecasts an average core CPI at 5.8% this year; and, for those who have money, buying housing to rent has ceased to be profitable, with rates of 3.5%, according to the BdE, below the cost of living.