Reporters: Zhao Liyun, Ye Lingzhen, Liu Canbang
"With the increasing layout of new energy power generation, negative electricity prices will become the norm. This has long been set and normal abroad. For the May Day period, the negative electricity price of spot trading data in Shandong power market lasted for a record-breaking time, and a number of industry insiders and analysts expressed this view to the Securities Times · e company reporter.
Negative electricity prices do not mean that users can use electricity for free, nor does it mean that domestic wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity have been excessive. How to solve the current problem of unstable output of new energy power generation? The market is still focusing on the layout of energy storage. Industry insiders believe that the emergence of negative electricity prices in the current market, coupled with the decline in raw material prices, the willingness of power generation side to revitalize energy storage assets is increasing.
The impact of negative electricity prices is not large
From May 5 to 1, the Shandong Electricity Market Spot Trading Center had 2 consecutive hours of real-time negative electricity price data, which set a new record for the duration of negative electricity prices in the domestic electricity spot market and also attracted industry attention.
"The negative electricity price has nothing to do with the user side, only the quotation strategy problem on the power generation side. The negative price reported by the power generation measurement means that the plan is prioritized, but there will be no negative price from the user side. A person from a central enterprise on the power generation side said that although the trading rules allow negative electricity prices, this situation is rare in practice, and it is difficult to clarify how much negative electricity has been transacted.
On the policy side, the Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently issued an announcement on soliciting opinions on matters related to the regulation of the upper and lower limits of the spot market price in Shandong (Draft for Comments), which sets a price upper and lower limit for the clearing of market electricity energy, with the upper limit of 1.5 yuan per kWh and the lower limit of -0.1 yuan per kWh.
Prior to this, according to the data of the Shandong Provincial Power Trading Center, as early as the end of 2022, the spot price of the local power generation side once appeared at a clearing price of -0.08 yuan per kWh.
Why are electricity prices negative?
Zuo Qianming, chief analyst of Cinda Securities Energy, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Times that the reason for the negative electricity price is essentially the phased excess of power supply, and the market quotation mechanism has reported a negative electricity price, which is not unrelated to the development of new energy in recent years.
"In the past, there was no new energy power generation, and the output curve and electricity load of traditional power units were relatively matched, and there would be no inconsistencies. But in recent years, due to the development of wind power and photovoltaics, based on their unstable characteristics, the previous duck curve has become an abyss curve. Zuo Qianming said for example, when the photovoltaic generator set was in the noon period, there was not much demand for electricity. With the increasing installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in the market, the time and scope of consumption will become wider and wider, and the time and degree of negative electricity prices will become deeper and deeper, showing spiral growth.
The above-mentioned central enterprises on the power generation side also said that the spot trading market is quoted according to the supply and demand of full electricity, but when it is cleared, it is discharged according to the order of quotation. When the market supply exceeds demand, the company's electricity price is too high, and the ranking will be lower, facing the situation that the shutdown cannot be cleared. If power generation companies consider the high cost of downtime in order to continue generating electricity, they will deliberately report low electricity prices and negative electricity prices.
Normalize the negative value of electricity prices
Although the concept of "negative electricity price" is still very new in China, negative electricity price has become very common in the European market, where new energy investment is more intensive.
"Under the new energy market, if there is no energy storage means, it is normal for negative electricity prices to occur." Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, believes that power balance is an instantaneous concept, and only when there is demand can there be supply, so negative electricity prices are needed to attract consumers.
He believes that although there is a negative electricity price, it does not mean that the domestic new energy power generation is excessive. At present, the contribution of domestic wind power and photovoltaic power generation is still small, and with the gradual popularization of renewable energy and the development of the power market, negative electricity prices will become more and more common.
"The proportion of electricity spot trading volume itself is very low, and the medium and long-term agreements lock most of it, so spot quotations are negative and the impact is extremely limited." The above-mentioned power generation measurement central enterprise also said that the negative electricity price mainly involves the spot trading part of electricity, but the spot ratio is very low. The electricity market trading mechanism is still dominated by medium- and long-term contract transactions, and the proportion of medium- and long-term contracts in its enterprises has reached more than 95%. In the national spot trading rules, only 10% of the annual electricity is allowed to be realized through spot trading, and only 5%-6% in the actual operation process.
The emergence of negative electricity prices, based on the continuous acceleration of domestic new energy power generation layout, is also an inevitable process for China to promote market-oriented electricity trading. Zuo Qianming believes that the market-oriented trading of electricity is conducive to the development of the power industry, which can better reflect the commodity attributes of electricity, reflect the supply and demand characteristics of the real-time area of electricity, and help guide the allocation of market resources.
He pointed out that without a negative electricity price mechanism, the market cannot grasp the news of regional excess power generation capacity, and still invests, which will cause the problem of waste of resources. At present, some regions and time periods have seen signs of overinvestment. If all the linear expected production capacity for wind and solar growth in the early stage is put on the market, it will undoubtedly bring some phased problems. In the long run, the electricity market still needs to return to the essence of commodity trading, and the next step can be to make the market price signal clearer, without excessive human intervention.
Energy storage configuration is still lacking
Although negative electricity prices currently have little impact on the market, from the perspective of power generation measurement, how to reduce costs is still a development priority.
In the interview, a person from a photovoltaic manufacturing company believes that regardless of the deep valley electricity price or negative electricity price, it will still have an impact on the overall investment income of photovoltaics. Since the electricity price policy cannot be changed, enterprises need to reduce the investment cost of photovoltaic power generation from other aspects, and improve the income of photovoltaic investment in a limited space.
He mentioned that as one of the most important components of photovoltaic systems, the selection of photovoltaic modules is very important, which will be directly related to the system cost, power generation and investment income of photovoltaic power plants. In recent years, with the development of the industry, photovoltaic module technology has been continuously iterated, the power of module products has increased rapidly, and large-size, high-power module products have become a key factor in reducing the cost of electricity.
The above-mentioned central enterprises on the power generation side believe that the negative electricity price is also related to the lack of energy storage configuration. The natural randomness, intermittency and volatility characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic inevitably bring about the problem of new energy consumption. Therefore, in recent years, the "new energy + energy storage" model has been promoted worldwide, and nearly 30 provinces in China have issued the "<>th Five-Year Plan" new energy storage plan or new energy configuration energy storage documents.
However, behind the policy support, on the new energy generation side, the practical application effect of energy storage is not ideal. According to industry data, the average equivalent utilization coefficient of electrochemical energy storage projects is 12.2%, while the equivalent utilization coefficient of new energy distribution and storage is only 6.1%. This means that the new energy storage side has not assisted wind and solar consumption as expected, but has become an economic burden for new energy power generation enterprises due to high investment costs.
"In theory, the market needs to enhance energy storage capacity for power supply and demand regulation, but in reality, if energy storage works, there will be no negative electricity price, and there will be no difficulty in wind and solar power consumption." There are technical problems as well as institutional problems. Zuo Qianming proposed that the current new centralized photovoltaic power generation projects require peak shaving capacity according to the proportion of 10% or more of the installed capacity, which is equivalent to the energy storage level of 2-4 hours, but in fact, the situation of no light and wind is often not only 2-4 hours, the supporting energy storage capacity is low, the time is short, and the problem of absorption cannot be fundamentally solved.
Lin Boqiang also said that the problem of wind and solar absorption can be alleviated, but it depends on the choice of market cost. At present, the investment cost of energy storage is very high, and in the future, with the increase in the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, the demand for energy storage will be higher, and the investment cost will continue to rise. If the cost of energy storage is greater than the cost of power generation, enterprises will not choose to layout energy storage. Mandatory matching can only alleviate part of the absorption problem, and cannot be fundamentally solved.
The cost is declining, and the energy storage layout is expected to increase
The negative electricity price reflects the problem of integrating new energy electricity into the grid, and the importance of energy storage systems is increasingly prominent.
"Shandong is a major province for wind and solar power generation, and it is also a major province for compulsory storage. In this case, there is still a shortage of energy storage support, which means that the energy storage industry still has a large room for growth. The relevant person in charge of Guoxuan Hi-Tech said.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall, gradually transmitted to the cell level, so that the problem of high input costs that has long plagued energy storage has been alleviated to a certain extent, and the enthusiasm for installation is accelerating.
According to the project database of the Institute of Advanced Industry Research, 2023 energy storage winning projects were disclosed in the first quarter of 46, exceeding the total in the first half of last year.
Recently, a number of leading battery and energy storage listed companies said that the decline in lithium carbonate prices is good for the industry, and revealed the strong growth of the energy storage market.
Sungrow believes that the decline in the price of lithium carbonate is conducive to driving downstream demand, which is conducive to photovoltaic inverters, power station investment and development, energy storage and new energy vehicle drive systems and other businesses, and the current energy storage orders are good; CATL and Guoxuan Hi-Tech both expect that the growth rate of the energy storage industry will be higher than that of power batteries this year.
"Recently, it is obvious that there are more and more energy storage projects invested by users." An energy storage practitioner in East China told the Securities Times reporter that the impact of the decline in upstream materials on the price of battery cells is a certain lag, the price decline of lithium carbonate has not been fully transmitted to the energy storage cell, the current lithium carbonate has fallen by more than 60%, and the price of energy storage cells has fallen by about 30%. With the release of the conduction mechanism, subsequent energy storage is expected to be further increased.
The Institute of Advanced Industry expects that the price of energy storage batteries will fall below 2023.6 yuan/Wh in June 0 and 7.2023 yuan/Wh in the second half of 0; On the energy storage system side, due to the decline in the cost and price of PCS and PACK, it is expected that the price of energy storage system will fall to 6.2023 yuan/Wh in the second half of 0 and is expected to decline to 9.2025 yuan/Wh in the second half of 0.
"Lithium carbonate is in a sharp decline recently, and there is still a certain wait-and-see mood in the industry." A lithium battery investor in South China told the Securities Times reporter that when the price of upstream materials tends to stabilize, it is expected that energy storage will usher in a concentrated outbreak period in the second half of the year.
Generally speaking, energy storage is divided into three categories: power generation side, grid side and user side according to application scenarios, and the sensitivity of the three to electricity price and raw material cost is different.
"Energy storage on the power generation side is mostly policy guidance, the main purpose is to achieve grid connection, the overall utilization rate is not high, and a mature business model has not yet been formed." The aforementioned energy storage practitioners said that in comparison, the decline in lithium carbonate prices will have a greater impact on the installation enthusiasm of the grid side and the user side, especially on the user side, the overall installed capacity is not large, the investment is small, and the sensitivity to cost is higher.
"Of course, negative electricity prices coupled with the decline in raw material prices, the willingness of power generation side to revitalize energy storage assets is also increasing." Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Ivey Economic Research Institute and president of China Battery Industry Research Institute, said that at present, the power generation side distribution and storage is actively exploring new business models, such as leasing energy storage and participating in independent energy storage stations.
In the eyes of most people in the industry, the dilution of energy storage costs not only depends on the decline in the cost of battery cells, but also depends on factors such as the service life and efficiency of batteries. "The operation cycle of energy storage power stations is longer than that of new energy vehicles, and the requirements for the number of battery cycles will be higher, and the current calculation of the cost of energy storage is mostly theoretical and not rigorous." After all, electrochemical energy storage is still in the early stages of development, and its complete life cycle has not been verified. Wu Hui said. (Company E)