During the "May Day" holiday, the number of trips surged, and many places opened the "crowd" mode; In April, the company's production and operation activities continued to recover and develop; A number of international institutions raised China's economic development forecasts...

Experts said that the current consumption vitality potential is accelerating the release, demand is steadily expanding, and the production expansion is working together to consolidate the foundation for the overall economic recovery, and economic growth is expected to further accelerate in the second quarter.

The travel market is hot

"People follow the crowd" is an Internet slang to describe the "crowd of scenic spots" in recent years. It couldn't be more apt to describe the crowds of people during this year's May Day holiday.

"I had booked my travel schedule for the May Day holiday a long time ago, but I didn't expect to avoid the increase in hotel prices, but I couldn't avoid the crowds." Wang Xin (pseudonym), who lives in Beijing, told the China Securities News reporter that because there were too many people in line and the schedule was very tight, when she went to Wuhan to visit the Yellow Crane Tower, she only glanced at it from a distance in the car.

"The tickets sent by Shanghai Hongqiao Station to all stations across the country on April 4 have been sold out", "The Xi'an city wall is really strong, and there are probably 'millions of soldiers and horses' hidden in the past few days", "Tourists reached the highest carrying capacity in advance, and many scenic spots issued flow restriction announcements"... During this year's "May Day" holiday, the "people follow the crowd" model in various places has begun.

A number of data intuitively show the hot tourism market during the "May Day" holiday. According to data released by China National Railway Group Co., Ltd., on April 4, the national railway ushered in the peak of travel during the "May Day" holiday, sending 29.1966 million passengers; on April 1, May 4 and May 30, the national railway sent 5.1 million passengers, 5.2 million passengers and 1783.1 million passengers respectively; On May 1682, the last day of the "May Day" holiday, the national railway ushered in the peak of return passenger flow, and it is expected to send 6.1721 million passengers.

Domestic tickets increased by 127% compared with the Spring Festival, domestic hotels increased by 95% compared with the Spring Festival, and train tickets increased by 117% compared with the Spring Festival... According to Fliggy's data on May 5, the number of domestic travel bookings during the May Day holiday doubled compared with this year's Spring Festival holiday, hitting a peak during the May Day holiday.

According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the total number of domestic tourism trips during the "May Day" holiday was 2 million, a year-on-year increase of 74.70%, and recovered to 83.2019% of the same period in 119 on a comparable basis; The domestic tourism revenue reached 09.1480 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.128%, and recovered to 90.2019% of the same period in 100 on a comparable basis.

Yi Zheng, chief macroeconomist of Huatai Securities Research Institute, said that as the first "May Day" holiday after the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, residents' enthusiasm for travel and willingness to consume have increased greatly, and the superimposed policies to promote consumption have continued to make efforts, and consumption activities have been extremely hot. Experts expect that due to factors such as the lower base last year and the "May Day" holiday, the year-on-year consumption data in the second quarter will further increase.

The equipment manufacturing industry continues to expand

While tourism consumption is surging and demand is picking up, domestic production continues to show a recovery trend.

The equipment manufacturing industry continues to expand. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 4, in April, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the equipment manufacturing industry was 30.4%, still above the critical point, and its production index and new orders index were higher than 50.1%, and the equipment manufacturing industry continued to expand.

Manufacturing production continues to grow, and the market is expected to remain stable. The data showed that in April, the manufacturing production index was 4.50%, still above the critical point; The expected index of production and business activities was 2.54%, which continued to be at a high level.

Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the overall output of the manufacturing industry continued to expand, and enterprises were confident in the recent market development.

Experts said that the positive changes in the current economy are more obvious, the overall production and operation environment of enterprises has improved, supporting the improvement of guarantee conditions, and enterprise expectations are relatively optimistic. With the continuous efforts of the policy of expanding domestic demand, the sustained economic recovery is supported.

In addition, the non-manufacturing business activity index continued to be in a higher economic range. Statistics show that in April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 4.56%, the second highest in the year. Among them, the business activity index of the service industry was 4.55%, which was in the high economic range for three consecutive months; The business activity index of the construction industry was 1.3%, which was in the high economic range for three consecutive months. Zhao Qinghe said that the recovery of the service industry is stable and improving, and the production activities of the construction industry continue to expand rapidly.

"The continued investment and the accelerated recovery of offline consumption have provided the foundation for a stable recovery in the manufacturing industry." Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that in the next stage, policies related to stabilizing investment and promoting consumption still need to continue to make efforts to consolidate economic resilience.

People from all walks of life are optimistic about China's economic growth prospects

Under the influence of China's economic growth exceeding expectations in the first quarter and a number of recent positive factors, international institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth.

Nomura International (Hong Kong) recently raised its forecast for China's economic growth rate this year to 5.9%, higher than the previous estimate of 5.3%; Citigroup believes that China's economy grew stronger than expected in the first quarter, and the growth rate of China's economy will reach 2023.6% in 1. J.P. Morgan raised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy in 2023 to 6.6% from 4% previously, and noted in its latest report that the Chinese economy will continue to recover in the coming quarters.

In addition, a number of international institutions and organizations are optimistic about the contribution of China's economy to the world economy in 2023. IMF Managing Director Georgieva recently said that China's economy is rebounding strongly, and it is expected that China's contribution to global economic growth will reach about one-third this year, injecting momentum into the development of other countries. "After a strong recovery in the first quarter, China's economy is expected to contribute more than 40% to global growth this year." Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, predicted.

Experts said economic growth in the second quarter could be significantly faster than in the first quarter. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and president of the research institute of Guangdong Development Securities, expects that the economy is expected to achieve rapid growth in the second quarter, and the GDP growth rate may reach more than 7% year-on-year. "At present, the endogenous power of business entities and social demand continue to be actively repaired, coupled with the low base effect, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to reach about 7% year-on-year." Pang Ming, chief economist and director of research department of JLL Greater China, said that macro indicators such as industrial production, investment, and retail sales of social consumer goods are expected to show a more comprehensive and strong recovery and improvement in the second quarter.