Foreign trade "excellent students" run on a new track: in-depth comparison between China, Vietnam, South Korea and India

China's exports are rebounding strongly!

In the first quarter, China's exports of goods bucked the trend and increased by 8.4%. In contrast, Vietnam's exports in the first quarter fell by 11.9% year-on-year, while exports from India and South Korea also shrank to varying degrees. In March, India's merchandise exports fell for the fourth consecutive month.

What is the reason for the strong rebound in China's exports? In recent years, continuous structural optimization and adjustment have contributed to it.

Bai Ming, a member of the Degree Committee of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that when the international market begins to enter a downturn, in this arena, it is to see whose industrial structure is more able to adapt to the new changes in the international market.

China, an "excellent student" in foreign trade, is running on a new track.

Vietnam: Exports to its largest exporter fell by more than 20% in the first quarter

In recent years, Vietnam's export momentum has attracted global attention. However, the latest data released by Vietnam's National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam's total imports and exports of goods reached about US$1542.7 billion, down 13.3% year-on-year, of which exports fell 11.9%.

"Who" is dragging down Vietnam's export growth rate?

The reporter of "Daily Economic News" found that among Vietnam's export commodities, mobile phones and spare parts, computers, electronics and spare parts, mechanical equipment and spare parts, textiles four categories of commodities play an important role, and their export value accounted for 2023.52% of Vietnam's total exports in the first quarter of 8.

In the first quarter of 2022, the above four categories of goods were also the top four goods in Vietnam's export value, with exports of US$142.4 billion, US$130.5 billion, US$99.2 billion and US$88.4 billion respectively.

In the first quarter of 2023, the export value of these four categories of commodities was US$130 billion, US$118.1 billion, US$97.8 billion and US$72.8 billion, down 7.9%, 5.1%, 4.18% and 5.<>% year-on-year, respectively.

From the data, we know that because the above "four major pieces" account for a relatively large proportion, their export growth rate decline inevitably affected Vietnam's export report card in the first quarter.

Let's look at the export destination.

In the first quarter of 2023, the United States was Vietnam's largest export market, with an estimated export value of US$206.791 billion, according to the Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City, citing the Vietnam News Agency. Vietnam's total exports in the first quarter were US$7.26 billion, or about <>% of the US share.

The reporter compared the data released by the General Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam for the same period in 2022, the total amount of exports to the United States was 259.59 billion US dollars, which means that it fell by 2023.20% in the first quarter of 64, which is also much higher than the decline in Vietnam's total exports in the first quarter.

If we refine the commodity categories by export destination, we can see that in the first quarter of 2023, the top three exports of goods from Vietnam to the United States were machinery and equipment, tools, other accessories, computers, electronics and spare parts, textiles and clothing. Exports were US$39.9 billion, US$35.6 billion and US$30.5 billion, down 9%, up 7% and 30% respectively compared with the same period last year.

The Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association expects that in the second quarter, textile and apparel companies will still face many difficulties, as the purchasing power of markets such as the United States and the European Union has fallen sharply, resulting in many companies not receiving any new orders in April.

As a result, the sharp decline in textile exports dragged down Vietnam's export data to the United States.

India: March merchandise exports down nearly 3% year-on-year

India, Asia's other largest economy, saw merchandise exports fall 3.13% year-on-year in March. It fell from $89.3 billion in March last year to $445.7 billion in March this year. According to reporters, this is also the fourth consecutive month of decline in India's commodity exports.

According to quarterly statistics, the reporter calculated according to the sum of monthly export data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India that in the first quarter of 2023, India's total exports were 1082.85 billion US dollars, down 7.41% year-on-year.

According to the "Guidelines for Countries (Regions) in Foreign Investment and Cooperation - India (2021 Edition)" issued by the Ministry of Commerce, India's main export commodities are fossil fuel products, precious metals and products, machinery and equipment, etc.

According to the data released by the WTO, among the main export commodities, manufactured goods have long been in an absolute leading position, and the proportion of machinery and equipment, fossil fuels, etc. has not changed much, so their export data will have a greater impact on the overall export situation.

According to India's export breakdown data for February 4 disclosed on April 20, 2023 of the 2 product categories are declining year-on-year, more than half, and the largest decline is tin and its products, with a decrease of 98.55%. Knitted or crocheted clothing and accessories decreased by 57.92% year-on-year.

In January, India's exports contracted in 1 of the 30 industry categories, with the main items falling in the following categories: jewellery (-19.19%), pharmaceuticals (-28.2%), chemicals (-62.4%), machinery products (-57.9%) and garments (-8.3%). Core exports (non-oil and non-jewellery) fell 48.1% to US$8.12 billion in January.

In terms of export destinations, according to statistics from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the top ones are the United States, China, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. Among them, the export share to the United States is the largest.

In recent years, India's share of exports to the United States has remained at about 30%, and exports to China rank second, with a share of about 10%, and this pattern has not changed much for a long time, and the demand for its goods by the United States can directly affect India's export trend.

South Korea: Semiconductor exports accounted for more than 3%, exports fell 33.85% in March

As a developed country in Asia, South Korea's global export value ranking in 2022 rose one place from 2021 to sixth place in the world. However, South Korea's export sluggishness remains the focus of industry attention.

In the first quarter of this year, South Korean exports fell 12.6% year-on-year, the worst data since the second quarter of 2020, the data showed. From a single month perspective, South Korea's export value has been negative for six consecutive months year-on-year, and it was as high as -6.3% in March this year. Adjusted for working days, exports grew at -13.6% year-on-year, compared with -16.6% in February.

South Korea's exports continue to decline, according to a report quoted by Korea Radio International. The trade balance ran a deficit for the thirteenth consecutive month, with a deficit of $13.46 billion.

In terms of products, the marginal growth rate of semiconductor exports has improved but the decline is still deep, the export of electronic equipment such as computers and mobile phones is sluggish, and the performance of automobiles is more eye-catching.

South Korea's most important export category is semiconductors. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of Korea, semiconductor exports in 2022 amounted to $1321.46 billion, accounting for 32.7% of South Korea's total exports. Semiconductor exports continued to be sluggish in March, down 3.33% year-on-year. Computer peripheral exports in March fell 85.3% year-on-year. The export of wireless communication devices fell by 56.53% year-on-year. Only auto exports are more resilient, with exports up 40.33% y/y in March.

According to the Korea Development Institute, exports fell by 3.13% year-on-year in March, further widening from the decline in February (-6.2%). As exports of major items such as semiconductors continue to be weak, the situation of high inventories and low operating hours in the manufacturing industry will continue, and production will be greatly reduced.

According to the export destination, Huatai Securities Research Report analyzed that South Korea's exports to China have not improved significantly, and the growth rate of exports to the United States and Europe has also further declined. South Korea's exports to China in March fell by 3.33% year-on-year, a further decrease of 4.1 percentage points from the average growth rate in January~February.

As South Korea's largest exporter (accounting for about 2021% of South Korea's total exports in 26), South Korea's exports to China dragged down South Korea's overall exports by about 3.8 percentage points in March. During the same period, South Korea's exports to the United States and Europe also fell further.

South Korea's exports to the United States and the European Union in March recorded 3.1% and -6.1% year-on-year, respectively, down 1.1 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points from 5.6% and 9.2% in January~February, reflecting the decline in consumer demand for goods in the United States and Europe. In emerging markets, South Korea's exports to ASEAN remained subdued at -9.8% in March.

In February this year, the Korea Trade Association said at a briefing on "Analysis of the Causes of the Export Slump and Response Direction" that the slump in South Korea's exports is relatively more serious considering the decline in exports. Jung Wan-ki, vice president of the Korea Trade Association, said at a briefing on the same day that this was mainly because South Korea's export industry is composed of intermediate products that are sensitive to economic changes.

The reporter combed through the relevant data and found that in recent years, semiconductors, petroleum products, steel products, passenger cars, etc. account for a large share of South Korea's export commodities, and the structure has not changed much over the years, and the ability to respond to risks or changes is limited.

The Korea Trade Association predicts that the sluggish export trend will continue in the first half of the year. Because the world economy was still in a downward trend in the first half of the year, the recovery of trade volume was limited. South Korea's exports, which are mainly intermediate products, will rise and fall more than the trend of world trade in each economic crisis, so changes in external conditions such as China's economic resilience this year and whether the Russian-Ukrainian war situation has subsided will also make South Korea's exports show a flexible recovery trend.

China: Exports to the top three trading partners account for about 15%.

While exports from Vietnam, India and South Korea declined, Chinese exports rebounded strongly.

In the first quarter, China's total import and export of goods was 98877,14389.54 billion yuan (4,8.56484 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 8218.31%. Among them, exports were 8,4.3 billion yuan (37094.5429 billion US dollars), an increase of 88.15%. In March, the total import and export volume was 5,21552.3155 billion yuan ($89.23 billion), up 4.<>% year-on-year. Among them, exports were <>,<>.<> billion yuan (<>.<> billion US dollars), an increase of <>.<>%.

The credit for such a brilliant achievement is the "stable scale and excellent structure" initiative.

Lu Daliang, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistical Analysis, once said that the total export of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells in the first quarter increased by 66.9%, with a year-on-year increase of more than 1000 billion yuan, which increased the overall growth rate of exports by 2 percentage points, further strengthening the driving force of last year.

Caitong Macro Chen Xing team believes that from the perspective of commodity categories, mechanical and electrical equipment for the growth rate of exports in March was more than 3 percentage points. Labor-intensive products are close to 7.3 percentage points, and raw materials are less than 5 percentage points, mechanical and electrical equipment in machinery and electronics show a clear differentiation trend, mechanical performance is relatively strong, and electronic products to exports still dragged down, from the General Administration of Customs disclosed commodity information, machinery is strong mainly in the support of the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, it is worth mentioning that the performance of the automotive chain is still better.

At the same time, from the perspective of export destinations, in the first quarter, China's imports and exports to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, amounted to 1.56 trillion yuan (US$2277.89 billion), a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, 11.3 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate, accounting for 15.8% of the total import and export value; The European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea imported and exported 1.34 trillion yuan (US$1944.08 billion), 1.11 trillion yuan (US$1615.88 billion), 5464.1 billion yuan (US$793.65 billion) and 5284.6 billion yuan (US$770.32 billion) respectively, accounting for 35.6% of the total import and export value. In the same period, China's imports and exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 16.8%, accounting for 34.6% of the total import and export value, an increase of 3.5 percentage points.

Huatai Futures Research Report pointed out that the foreign trade structure has been continuously optimized, and the increase in import demand of emerging market countries has offset the decline in imports in Europe and the United States. Emerging market countries and regions occupy an increasingly important position in China's foreign trade structure, and ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with the export share rising sharply from 2023% in 3 to 2005.7% at present as of March 16.

The share of major developed countries and regions in China's foreign trade structure has been weakening, and the share of exports to Japan has fallen from 2005% in 11 to about 5% at present. The share of exports to the United States has fallen from about 2005% in 22 to about 14% at present (a new low since statistics became available); The share of exports to the EU has also fallen from about 2005% around 20 to about 15% at present.

In recent years, the gap between my export share to ASEAN, the European Union, and the United States has become smaller and smaller, and it has been about 15% so far.

On April 4, the State Council's new office held a regular briefing on the policies of the State Council to promote the stable scale and excellent structure of foreign trade. At the meeting, Wang Shouwen, international trade negotiator and vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, introduced that there are three aspects in terms of stabilizing scale. First, strive to create trade opportunities. The second is to stabilize trade in key products. Including helping automobile enterprises to establish and improve international marketing service systems, to ensure the reasonable capital needs of large-scale complete equipment projects. The third is to stabilize foreign trade enterprises. This includes studying the establishment of the second phase of the Service Trade Innovation and Development Guidance Fund, encouraging banks and insurance institutions to expand cooperation in insurance policy financing and credit enhancement.

In terms of optimal structure, the first is to optimize the mode of trade. Guide the gradient transfer of processing trade to the central and western regions and northeast regions. The second is to optimize the environment for foreign trade development. It is proposed to give full play to the role of the early warning system and legal service mechanism, further promote the construction of a "single window", further facilitate the handling of export tax rebates, improve the efficiency of customs clearance at ports, implement the free trade agreements that have entered into force with high quality, and compile and distribute application guides for key industries.

Bai Ming told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that at present, the export of some labor-intensive products is still under pressure, but as China continues to optimize the industrial structure in recent years and form new advantages in international competition, it has gradually released competitiveness in quality service technology and brand. For example, the "new three things" composed of exports of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics have emerged, especially new energy vehicles, and after more than ten years of efforts, their competitiveness has become more and more obvious.

In addition, the export of home appliances is strong. "At the beginning, China's home appliance exports were not bright, but in recent years, China has gradually grown into a home appliance country, home appliance power, and now our home appliances are getting stronger and stronger, and many brands and models are in the leading position in the world." Bai Ming said.

Reporter's note

China's foreign trade exports are rising against the trend, where does the confidence come from?

In the first quarter, China's exports of goods were 56484,8.4 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9%. This report card has not come easily. Compared to other export-oriented countries, we see that Vietnam's exports fell by 12.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, South Korea by 7.41%, and India by <>.<>%.

Under the background of the downward pressure on the world economy, China's export growth rate can still maintain a relatively large growth, what is the driving force? Through horizontal comparison, we can know that in recent years, China has been doing everything possible to stabilize the scale of foreign trade and optimize the structure of foreign trade.

From the perspective of major export commodities, the total export of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells increased by 66.9% in the first quarter, which increased the overall growth rate of exports by 2 percentage points, further strengthening the pulling power of last year.

From the perspective of major export destinations, emerging market countries and regions occupy an increasingly important position in China's foreign trade structure. China's share of exports to ASEAN has risen sharply from 2005 per cent in 7 to 16.9 per cent at present. Major developed countries and regions, in China's foreign trade structure share is also weakening, China's export share to the top three trading partners ASEAN, the European Union and the United States gap is getting smaller and smaller.

There is no doubt that only by constantly optimizing and adjusting the structure of foreign trade and not putting eggs in the same basket can we adapt to the changing external environment and maintain the strength of foreign trade import and export.

Reporter Zhang Shoulin Chen Xing Per Editor Chen Xing

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