(Economic Watch) China's economy "started well" in the first quarter and achieved "multi-point blossoming"

Beijing, 4 Apr (ZXS) -- China's economy made a "good start" in the first quarter as scheduled: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 18 April, preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product in the first quarter was 18 billion yuan (renminbi, the same below), an increase of 284997.4 percent year-on-year and 5.2 percent over the fourth quarter of the previous year.

Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said: "The economy started well in the first quarter. ”

On the same day, China News Service held the "State is Forum: Economic Situation Analysis Meeting in the First Quarter of 2023", and many experts attending the meeting believed that China's economy made a "good start" in the first quarter, which showed many positive momentum and positive highlights.

From the perspective of consumption, in the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods 114922 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, compared with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the consumption scenarios are increasing, and residents' consumption confidence has improved, driving the average consumption tendency to rise.

Infographic: Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, citizens buy vegetables at a local farmers' market. Photo by China News Agency reporter Lu Bo

Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, believes that since the beginning of this year, the contact service industry and agglomeration consumption scenarios have accelerated their recovery, and the mobile consumption industries such as accommodation, catering, tourism, and culture have recovered rapidly.

From the perspective of foreign trade, China's foreign trade stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter, and the foreign trade data in March rebounded sharply beyond expectations. Regarding this phenomenon, Huo Jianguo, former president of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce and vice president of the China World Trade Organization Research Association, believes that some positive signals can be seen through the foreign trade data in March. For example, emerging economies supporting the growth of foreign trade will play a positive role in "stabilizing foreign trade". New energy vehicles, photovoltaics, lithium batteries and other new products have shown their role in driving the growth of foreign trade exports.

However, he also reminded that the foreign trade situation should be rationally analyzed. China's foreign trade performance in March was more eye-catching and had certain "particularities", mainly due to the rapid resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the full start of work in various places. At the same time, this also shows that the external demand for China's products is still there, and demand orders support the development of foreign trade. Looking forward to the future development of China's foreign trade, in addition to emerging economies, we should also pay attention to the capacity of European and American markets. "If the market share of Europe and the United States declines, will it have an impact on foreign trade growth in the future?"

From the perspective of finance, in the first quarter, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and key expenditures such as basic people's livelihood, rural revitalization, major regional strategies, education, and scientific and technological research were strongly guaranteed, and fiscal expenditure maintained a high intensity. Bai Jingming, a researcher and former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said that China's active fiscal policy this year "strengthens and improves efficiency" is reflected in adjusting the expenditure structure to make it more accurate and ensure that funds flow to protect people's livelihood, make up for shortcomings, and strengthen weaknesses.

At the same time, party and government organs have reduced general expenditures, moving and freeing up funds for basic livelihood protection; Coupled with reform measures such as direct access to funds, improving the efficiency of capital use and expanding the scale of expenditure, active fiscal policies are of great help to increase consumption and stimulate investment.

From the perspective of financial data, China's credit delivery in the first quarter maintained a relatively fast pace, especially the recovery of financing demand in the real economy. Zhao Yang, managing director of CICC Research Institute, said that the outside world was more worried about demand, but the financial data reflected the transformation from supply to demand recovery momentum. From a credit perspective, the first-quarter data showed some good signs.

"If we look ahead, from a policy point of view, this year we still expect more fiscal support for aggregate demand, because fiscal is more favorable to aggregate demand in the short term than credit policy." Zhao Yang said.

From the perspective of the real estate market, in the first quarter, the national real estate development investment was 25974,5.8 billion yuan, down <>.<>% year-on-year, the decline was significantly narrower than last year, while the sales side continued to pick up. Chai Qiang, president of the China Real Estate Appraisers and Real Estate Agents Association, said bluntly that the main indicators of the real estate market in the first quarter showed positive changes, the market generally showed a trend of stabilization and recovery, and the confidence of buyers and investors has been enhanced.

Video: Chai Qiang: The bottom of the real estate market has passedSource: China News Network

"It can be said that the bottom of the real estate market has passed, and the most difficult stage for real estate development enterprises should also pass." Chai Qiang believes that the prospects of the future real estate market are still very broad, mainly in the fields of leasing. In the future, it is expected that new citizens and young people will mainly rent houses. By the time China's urbanization rate reaches 75 percent, one-third of the country's urban population may be rented.

Zong Liang, chief researcher of the Bank of China, reminded that China's economic momentum improved in the first quarter of this year, but investment was weaker than expected, and efforts should still be increased in this regard to further boost private investment.

He bluntly said that it should be noted that the global economic situation is still very uncertain, so we must strive to do a good job in various work in view of relevant risk points, give play to the synergy of macroeconomic policies, and stabilize the basic situation of economic growth. (End)