Zhongxin Jingwei, April 4 (Wang Yongle) -- The National Bureau of Statistics recently released the consumer price index (CPI) for March 13 in 31 provinces. According to the review of China-Singapore Jingwei, in March, the year-on-year increase in CPI in 2023 provinces was only higher than that in Sichuan, which was higher than that of the previous month. Among them, Xinjiang rose 3.3% at the highest, and Jilin was flat at the lowest.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics website
Sichuan CPI rose sharply
Jilin narrowed to 0
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in March 2023, the national CPI fell by 3.0% month-on-month and increased by 3.0% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI was lower than market expectations and fell for two consecutive months.
The review found that the CPI of 31 provinces rose year-on-year in March, except for Jilin, and the increase was higher or lower than the national level in 3 provinces, compared with 13 and 13 respectively last month. From the perspective of growth, the 15 provinces except Sichuan all increased less than last month, and the increase in 30 provinces last month narrowed.
Specifically, 13 provinces, including Xinjiang, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, Hubei, Guangdong, Hainan and Tibet, increased more than the national level, of which only Xinjiang is in the "1 era"; Beijing, Fujian, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Ningxia rose at the same rate as the national level; Thirteen provinces, including Anhui, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Shanxi, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Guizhou and Jilin, rose below the national level, with Jilin rising at the lowest rate of 13%.
In addition, from the perspective of increase and decrease, Sichuan rose by 0.1 percentage points, and Jilin decreased by 0.9 percentage points.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the decline in non-core inflation in food and energy is the main factor for the weakening of CPI in March, and the core inflation that the market is more expected to stabilize but the trend is weak, and abundant supply and demand are "stable but not strong" are the main characteristics, which requires policies to continue to promote domestic demand.
How will CPI go in the future?
Looking forward to the price trend in the next stage, institutions generally expect no inflation risk in the short term.
According to Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, the CPI in April may further fall back to about 4.0% year-on-year, of which the year-on-year decline in vegetable prices and fuel car prices will still become the main influencing factors. With the moderate outlook for consumption repair, the core CPI will continue to be low at around 5.1% in the short term.
Chen Xing, chief analyst of Caitong Securities Macro, said that from the perspective of high-frequency data, since March, the price decline of pork and eggs has narrowed, while the supply of fresh vegetables lags behind the decline in demand, and the price will rise slightly; However, the overall CPI is still limited by the faster recovery of supply than demand, and it is expected that the CPI will rise slightly in April and stabilize year-on-year.
Everbright Macro Gao Ruidong team said that from the trend point of view, it is expected that the gradual recovery of consumption will drive non-food prices to rise slowly, but given that the pig cycle is still in a downward stage during the year, driving food prices to fall year-on-year, will keep the overall inflation level at a low level, and it is expected that in the next quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is still less than 1%.
Wanlian Securities macro report believes that the second quarter is the off-season for consumption, and the CPI rise is expected to be limited. As the May Day holiday ushered in a wave of tourism peaks, under the role of low base, the tourism sub-item is expected to maintain growth, which may drive the CPI to recover.
West China Securities also believes that with the steady recovery of demand, coupled with the intervention of the central reserve frozen pork collection and storage, pork prices may gradually stabilize and recover in the second quarter; Service consumer prices will also be gradually repaired with the improvement of residents' incomes and the arrival of the May Day and Dragon Boat Festivals, which in turn will drive the CPI to rise moderately.
From the perspective of the annual trend, the report of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University believes that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI under the natural trend in 2023 will continue to move slightly upward compared with 2022, and the probability is to show a trend of first high and then low and then stable, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 2023 will be about 2.0%. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and caution is required when entering the market.) )
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