Securities Times reporter Wu Zhi

The two months after the Spring Festival are usually the off-season for cinemas, but this year's off-season seems to be "lighter" compared to previous years. In the past March, the national box office of movies was about 3.19 billion yuan, which was significantly lower than the 2021.2019 billion yuan and 25.41 billion yuan in the same period in 6 and <>.

Another core indicator, there is also a clear gap in the number of moviegoers. The number of moviegoers (total votes) in March this year was about 3.4905 million, 2021 million lower than the same period in 1700 and nearly 2019 million less than the same period in 7200. Since the beginning of this year, the supply of content in the film market has been relatively sufficient, including many well-known films, and the number of imported blockbusters has continued to increase, but it seems that it will take time for the audience's enthusiasm to recover.

Moviegoers have not yet recovered

"Good reputation but poor box office" is a significant phenomenon in the recent film market. According to the reporter of the Securities Times, the recent new films with a Douban score of more than 7.0 points are generally less than 2 million yuan at the current box office. Among them, the box office of "Space Exploration Editorial Department" with 8.4 points is only 2900 million yuan.

The situation of imported films is similar. The 8.8-point "Detective Conan: The Undead of Baker Street" only had a box office of 836.6 million yuan on the first day, far lower than the previous work in the series. The relatively good performance of the two films "Keep You Safe" and "Lingbud Journey" currently have a box office of more than <> million yuan, which is already the best result of this year's non-Spring Festival films.

March after the Spring Festival is usually the annual box office off-season, but this year's light market still confused some practitioners. "Why is the box office only tens of millions of dollars for such a good movie as "More than Endless"?" There are theater managers who "hold uneven" for the film in the circle of friends.

The source of the new film's poor box office is not difficult to find. From the intuitive data, the number of moviegoers closely related to the box office is far from recovering is an important factor.

Lighthouse data shows that the number of moviegoers in January ~ March this year was 1 million, 3.2 million and 8645.4905 million, totaling about 3 million. There is a gap of nearly 35 million from 2021 million in the same period in 4 and 24 million fewer than 9000 million in the same period in 2019.

This year's Spring Festival box office of 68.3 billion yuan ranked second in history, but after the Spring Festival, the audience's enthusiasm for watching movies did not continue. Especially in March, the number of moviegoers and box office decreased significantly. According to statistics, the number of moviegoers in March only recovered to 3% of the same period in 2019 and 74% of the same period in 2019.

Multiple factors

In 2022, the lack of content supply used to be a "headache" for theaters, but this year the situation has changed significantly. According to the data of the Lighthouse platform, a total of 80 new films were released in the first quarter, especially 3 in March, and the supply of various films is sufficient, including many key films. Rich in content, why is the audience "unmoved"?

"Personally, I think it's still a matter of audience enthusiasm. The leisure method of watching movies has been abandoned by everyone for too long, and the Spring Festival cannot be used as a benchmark when there is strong demand, and daily consumption will take time to recover. This situation has less to do with the product side. An Yugang, founder of Beijing Film Company Tianxia Culture Communication Co., Ltd., told the Securities Times · e company reporter.

Cheng Fei, founder of Tuopu Consulting, a well-known film market research institution, believes that there are many reasons for the decline in moviegoers, first of all, imported films are gradually declining. "Every year two months after the Spring Festival, the market will enter a cold period throughout the year, and this part of the market is mainly filled by the introduction of Hollywood imported blockbusters. This year's "Black Panther", "Ant-Man 3" and other films have not performed satisfactorily, which means that the audience's appreciation taste is changing, and there has been aesthetic fatigue in Hollywood superhero films produced by high-concept models. ”

"In addition, the gap between medium and high-volume box office films is obvious, and the number has dropped significantly; The rising ticket prices have somewhat dissuaded the mainly light and moderate cinema swinging audiences; Finally, the national epidemic in January this year was still in a continuous outbreak period, and the market was greatly affected in mid-to-early January, which also affected the overall trend of the market. Cheng Fei said.

The data shows that this year's high-volume box office films are indeed significantly different from 2019. The first quarter of 2019 showed a situation of "one super and many strong", including 40 film with a box office volume of 1 billion yuan, as many as 10 films with a box office of 30 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan, and 2 films with a box office of nearly 10 billion yuan.

However, so far this year, although there are two films with a volume of 2 billion yuan, there is a great lack of mid-waist films, and there is only one "Bear Haunted: Bear Core with Me".

In terms of ticket prices, according to Tuopu consulting data, the national average ticket price in the first quarter of 2019 was 38.87 yuan, and the average ticket price in the first quarter of 2023 has reached 47.12 yuan, an increase of nearly 10 yuan. Cheng Fei believes that to a certain extent, this has adversely affected the number of moviegoers in the non-rigid schedule.

As a veteran movie fan, Internet analyst Ding Daoshi believes that the current film market should be viewed more objectively. "Compared with 2019, tourism and other entertainment consumption has not yet recovered to the highest peak, but it still achieved a large increase year-on-year, and many places were still affected by the epidemic in January ~ February this year, and the consumption of movies and cultural tourism was affected to a certain extent."

Give the market a little time

In 2022, domestic theaters will be significantly affected by the epidemic, with an annual box office of nearly 300 billion yuan, only equivalent to the level of 2014. As the impact of the epidemic gradually dissipates, the industry has high expectations for the market in 2023. However, looking at the number of moviegoers alone, the recovery in the first quarter is not ideal, and it does not meet the expectations of some practitioners.

In the face of this situation, many practitioners in film and television production, distribution, screening and other links said frankly in an interview with reporters that on the one hand, the current industry has not yet found a way to quickly break the situation, and the recovery of the market will take time; On the other hand, the market demand for quality content still exists, and the industry should pay more attention to the supply of quality content.

"In fact, since the beginning of this year, the film has gradually returned to normalization from finalization to publicity, and multiple films are released every week, which are very rich in subject matter types and countries, which can meet the consumption needs of different audiences." Cheng Fei believes that the decline in the number of moviegoers is not the norm, and the current decline in moviegoers is ultimately a problem of the quality of film content.

"This year's popular Spring Festival file allows us to see that the audience's enthusiasm for watching movies is still there, as long as there is good content, the audience is happy to pay for it." Cheng Fei said that many of the films released this year are still backlogged during the epidemic, so it is important to continue to produce and supply high-quality content in the future. Continuous insight into audience viewing needs, industrial policy support to encourage high-quality content production, and cultivation of outstanding talents are one of the important driving forces to promote the prosperity and development of the market.

According to Tuopu Consulting's previous inventory, this year's list of films to be screened is rich, the market supply is still relatively sufficient, and there is no lack of popular films with word-of-mouth potential. Tuopu Consulting believes that the domestic market is expected to recover to the level of 2023% in 2019 in 500, and the annual box office is expected to hit 550 billion yuan to <> billion yuan.

As a market-side practitioner, An Yugang observed that the new change in the market this year is that the audience does not want to release emotions by "crying", and goes to the cinema more in the hope of getting joy. Based on this, An Yugang believes that the next market urgently needs pure comedy projects, and the focus can be on the situation of the May 1st file, which can predict the situation of the summer file to a certain extent.

"As a lover of deep movies, I used to go to the cinema almost every week. The reason why I haven't been so many times this year is first because of the epidemic, then because of insufficient supply, there are too many shoddy films, and there are too few really good movies. Therefore, in the later stage, it is still necessary to strengthen the content supply and launch more good movies. Ding Daoshi said.

Ding Daoshi said that it is expected that the market will gradually stabilize and pick up from the second quarter, and after this year's recovery buffer, it will return to positive growth next year, which may exceed 2019. (Securities Times)