Last year's economic growth rate and population increase were both "open" What has the "Internet celebrity" Changsha experienced?

Per reporter Cheng Xiaoling Per editor Liu Yanmei

After winning the first city in the growth rate of the "trillion club" in 2022, Changsha's population increase continues to "open and hang".

According to the latest data released by the Changsha Municipal Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 2022, the total permanent population of the city was 1042.06 million, an increase of 1.8% over the end of the previous year. Compared with the end of 2021, Changsha's population increase reached 18,13 last year, surpassing Hangzhou, Hefei, Wuhan and other places, ranking first among the 18 trillion cities that have released data.

Not long ago, the annual economic reports of 24 trillion GDP cities in the country were released one after another, and Changsha ranked first among the 4 cities with an economic growth rate of 5.24%.

This can be said to be one of the few "highlight moments" in Changsha in recent years.

For a long time, Wuhan "suppressed" and Zhengzhou "caught up" later, and Changsha's status as the "second city in central China" was not solid. Seeing that the two sister cities have been approved as national central cities, Changsha's presence in the central part has been weakened for a while.

From "frustrated little brother" to "growth star", what has "Internet celebrity" Changsha experienced? As the capital of Hunan, a province with a large net outflow of population, according to the goal of "Changsha's permanent population exceeding 2026 million" by 1200, where will the incremental space of more than 4.150 million in the next four years come from?

Changsha's population increased by more than 18,<> last year

Up to now, 24 of the 18 trillion GDP cities have released their 2022 population data.

Among them, the total permanent population of Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing and Chengdu ranked in the top four, reaching 3213.34 million, 2475.89 million, 2184.3 million and 2126.8 million respectively.

In terms of growth, among the 18 cities that have released data, a total of 3 cities, Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin, have negative population growth, with the total population decreasing by 13,54, 4,3 and 10,<> respectively.

Among the 15 cities with positive population growth, Changsha ranked first with an increase of 18,13; after Changsha, Hangzhou, which has recently been known as a winner in "grabbing people", ranked second with a population increase of 17,2; Hefei, which is the capital of the central province with Changsha, ranked third with a population increase of 16,9.

Although there are still 6 cities whose population data has not yet been released last year, from the perspective of the population increase level of various places in previous years, Changsha has surpassed strong competitors such as Wuhan and Hangzhou, and is expected to win the 2022 trillion GDP city population increase champion.

Compared with the previous year, Changsha's population increase also reached 17,85, ranking fifth among trillion cities, and although its performance was acceptable, it was not as good as Wuhan (120,12,24), Chengdu (5,23), Hangzhou (9,20) and Xi'an (3,<>).

Thanks to this strong growth, Changsha's total population has also surpassed Qingdao, and the gap between the two has reversed from nearly 2021,2 behind Changsha in 2022 to nearly 8,<> in <>.

However, although Changsha's population increase leads the country, Hunan Province not only shows a net outflow of population (that is, the household registration population exceeds the permanent population) all year round, but also the permanent population has been negative growth for two consecutive years, decreasing by 2021,2022 in 23 and 39,18 in <>.

It is worth noting that 2022, when Changsha's economic and population growth rate is "open", is the second year that Hunan officially launched the strategy of "strengthening provincial capitals".

In November 2021, the 11th Party Congress of Hunan Province proposed the strategy of "strengthening provincial capitals" for the first time. A few months later, Hunan issued Several Opinions on Implementing the Strategy of Strengthening the Provincial Capital to Support the High-quality Development of Changsha, and Changsha issued the "Twenty Measures for Implementing the Strategy of "Strengthening the Provincial Capital", which clearly stated that by 2026, Changsha's GDP will reach about 2 trillion yuan, and the permanent population will exceed 1200 million.

If compared with the typical "strong provincial capital" in the central and western regions, Changsha's population ranking first (that is, the proportion of permanent residents in the province) still has significant room for improvement. The data shows that Changsha's population in 2021 was 15.5%, which is significantly different from provincial capitals such as Wuhan (23.4%) and Chengdu (25.3%).

In a sense, under the background of negative population growth in Hunan Province, Changsha's contrarian growth is precisely the performance of its ability to accelerate the completion of its own shortcomings by taking advantage of the opportunity of "strong provincial capital".

The return of the Midwest population is accelerating

Even so, it will not be easy for Changsha to achieve the goal of "exceeding 2026 million permanent residents" by 1200.

Simply estimated, Changsha will achieve a population increase of nearly 4.160 million in the next four years, that is, an average annual growth of nearly 40,<>. In contrast, its population growth over the past two years is still far from the above goals.

Where does the incremental space come from?

A general consensus is that with the arrival of the inflection point of the total population of the country, the population competition in various places has turned into the "stock era". For the central and western regions, seizing the opportunity of population return will undoubtedly bring considerable potential space.

Judging from the latest data, the trend of accelerated population return in the central and western regions has emerged.

At present, 29 provinces across the country have released population data for 2022. Among them, 17 provinces have achieved positive growth in their resident population, and the vast majority are central and western provinces.

Not only that, under the background of declining birth rates, Shanxi, Gansu, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Yunnan, etc., where population growth has turned from negative to positive, are also central and western provinces.

Specific to the six central provinces: in 2022, the population of four provinces of Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi and Shanxi will achieve positive growth, while Henan and Hunan will have negative growth.

Among them, Hubei and Anhui continued to maintain a large increase on the basis of the positive growth of the previous year, reaching 14,1; Jiangxi and Shanxi achieved "turning negative into positive", increasing from 46,10 and 02,10 in the previous year to 58,0 and 88,58 respectively; The population decline of Henan and Hunan dropped from 23,11 and 18,<> to <>,<> and <>,<> respectively.

It is not difficult to see that under the negative population growth trend of the country, the population growth trend in the central region is relatively good. This is even more evident in provincial capitals.

Data show that in 2022, the six provincial capitals in central China will achieve positive population growth, of which Changsha, which has the largest increase, increased by 6,18 over the previous year; Hefei and Nanchang ranked second and third with an increase of 13,16 and 9,10 respectively; Wuhan and Zhengzhou increased by 06,9 and 01,8 respectively; Taiyuan increased by 6,4.

A more intuitive comparison of data is that in 2022, the total population increase of the six central provinces will be about 6,10, and the population increase of the six provincial capitals will be as high as 6,67.

Specific to Hunan and Changsha, Qin Zunwen, vice president of the China Urban Economics Association and advisory member of the Hubei Provincial Government, analyzed to the "Daily Economic News" reporter that this kind of population return is mainly through two ways: one is that part of the population originally flowing out of the local area actively returns to Changsha and Hunan to start a business or work, and the other is through industrial transfer.

In addition, with the gradual emergence of the "1+1+1>3" effect of Changsha's Changsha-Zhutan metropolitan area, Changsha's population attraction to the surrounding areas is expected to be further enhanced.

Based on this, Qin Zunwen analyzed that the population growth target set by Changsha "although difficult, but also hope to achieve it through hard work."

In the future, the difficulty of "robbing people" may increase

Not only Changsha, but also the six central provincial capitals have set their own medium- and long-term population targets.

From the perspective of local master plans, in 2035, Wuhan's planned population will be 1660.1800 million, Zhengzhou 1550 million, Changsha 1300.800 million, Hefei 680 million, Nanchang <> million, and Taiyuan <>.<> million.

Among them, whether it is the population size forecast value or the incremental space, Zhengzhou ranks first. According to the plan, by 2035, its permanent population and service population will lead Wuhan by more than 100 million people, and it will be the "first city in the central population".

Changsha, a new incremental "dark horse", is not far behind – according to the plan, by 2035, the population gap with Wuhan will narrow from the current more than 330.110 million to just <>.<> million.

From the perspective of the first place in population, Changsha has jumped from the second lowest among six cities in 2015 to the second place in 2022.

Data show that in 2015, Changsha's population was only 12.5%, lower than Wuhan, Hefei, Taiyuan and Nanchang; By 2022, Changsha's population has risen by 3.3 percentage points to 15.8%, second only to Wuhan among the six central cities.

It is worth noting that backed by Henan, a province with a large population, Zhengzhou's population has always been at the bottom of the six central cities - 2022.13% in 0, a full 10.5 percentage points less than Wuhan, which has the highest first degree.

A lower base also means more room for growth. Some people point out that compared with Zhengzhou, which has a huge population hinterland, Changsha and Wuhan may be more difficult to "grab people" in the future.

In fact, from the beginning of 2017, Wuhan shouted "5 years to leave one million college students" and officially fired the first shot of "robbing people", to March 2021, Changsha introduced the "New Policy for the Strongest Talents in History", to Zhengzhou taking the lead in canceling settlement restrictions in megacities... In recent years, several central provincial capitals have frequently set off a wave of "grabbing people", and the intensity of competition has only increased.

"Lowering the threshold of settlement policy is the trend of the times, but the development of industry is still fundamental." Qin Zunwen stressed that the final competition of the "robbery war" is still the industry and business environment, "If there is not enough industrial support, even if you attract people, you can't stay." In his view, Changsha's vigorous development of the tertiary industry, especially the entertainment industry, in recent years, has helped to attract young people to settle down, which is also an important support for its industrial vitality.

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