As of March 3, the financial reports of the six state-owned banks have all been released, and the opportunities and challenges of industry operation last year can be glimpsed from the data, and executives of various banks have also released a lot of signals in the performance meeting for the profit trend and key layout in 31.

In the whole year of last year, the six major banks achieved a total operating income of about 3.7 trillion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.29% and 5.97% respectively year-on-year. The commonality lies in the fact that in the face of net interest margin pressure and market volatility, the revenue growth rate of major banks has generally slowed down or even rarely negative growth, but the increase in deposits and loans has reached a new high, "volume supplementation" has become the main profit support, and the effect of provision feedback has also appeared.

From the perspective of credit placement arrangements, last year, banks generally increased their investment in key industries such as infrastructure and manufacturing, and personal consumption loans and business loans became important points of strength; From the perspective of deposit structure, the trend of deposit regularization is obvious, and the cost of interest payment remains rigid as a whole. The information of the performance meeting revealed that since the beginning of this year, credit demand has remained strong, and banks have maintained a stable total volume and advanced pace, and continued to adjust the volume and price structure of the liability side.

In terms of asset quality, the non-performing loan ratio of all banks has generally improved, but the non-performing ratio of public and mortgage loans in the real estate sector has further increased, and the related risks are still in the process of further release. Overall, executives are optimistic about this year's steady growth and asset quality.

What are the structural characteristics behind the high increase in deposits and loans?

For the whole year of last year, except for Bank of China's net interest margin rising by 0.01 percentage points, the net interest margin of the other five major banks all further declined. In this context, to maintain the growth of interest-bearing assets, "volume supplementation" has become the key.

As of the end of last year, the total assets of the six major banks exceeded 16 trillion yuan, an overall increase of 12.82% over last year, and the growth rate of assets of many major banks hit a new high in nearly 10 years, of which the total assets of the "Cosmos Bank" Industrial and Commercial Bank approached 40 trillion yuan. Behind this, the scale of loans, which is composed of major assets, has achieved rapid growth, and many large banks have lent "record highs".

For example, the new loans and advances issued by the Agricultural Bank of China last year increased by 15.1% year-on-year to 2.59 trillion yuan, a record high; Bank of China (domestic RMB loans) added more than 1.58 trillion yuan, and Industrial and Commercial Bank and China Construction Bank (domestic corporate loans) increased by 1.63 trillion yuan and 1.43 trillion yuan respectively from the end of the previous year, and the increments reached record highs. From the perspective of year-on-year growth, the loan growth rate of major banks last year was more than 10%, of which the Agricultural Bank of China increased by more than 15% year-on-year, and the loan balance of ICBC and Construction Bank increased by more than 12% year-on-year.

Looking specifically at the field of credit investment, among the public loans, infrastructure, manufacturing, strategic emerging industries and other fields have increased significantly. Among them, ICBC's loan balance in manufacturing exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and domestic branches added 2948.51 billion yuan of manufacturing loans, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%; Last year, the Agricultural Bank of China added about 5550 billion yuan in new loans and advances in the manufacturing sector, an increase of 2.04 times that of the previous year; the medium and long-term loans invested by the Construction Bank and the Postal Savings Bank in the manufacturing sector increased by about 50%. Bank of China's loans to strategic emerging industries increased by 115%, ICBC's loans to emerging industries increased by 65% from the beginning of the year, and CCB's new investment increased by nearly 60%.

Among personal loans, consistent with the performance of the property market, the growth rate of personal housing loans slowed down significantly, while the investment of consumer loans and business loans accelerated significantly. For example, last year, CCB's personal consumption loans and personal business loans increased by 624.64 billion yuan and 1888.81 billion yuan respectively over the previous year, an increase of 26.81% and 83.40% respectively, while the growth rate of personal housing loans in the same period was only 1.46%. Among other banks, ICBC's personal operating loans increased by more than 30% year-on-year, Bank of China's non-housing consumer loans increased by more than 50%, and the balance of personal consumption loans of Bank of Communications increased by nearly 60%.

In the debt structure, the increase in deposits also hit a new high, with the six major banks adding 13.61 trillion yuan in new deposits throughout the year, of which the increase in corporate and personal deposits such as ICBC, ABC and BOC reached a record high. From the perspective of structure, the growth rate of time deposits is significantly higher than that of demand deposits, and the growth rate has increased compared with previous years. This is also an important reason for the increase in the industry's interest payment cost and the further narrowing of the net interest margin.

What are the arrangements for credit delivery in 2023

For the credit placement arrangement in 2023, executives of various banks released more signals in the performance meeting, and the overall total growth will be stable and the pace is moderately ahead. And credit demand remains strong from the first two months of the year.

Zhang Wenwu, deputy governor of ICBC, revealed that in 2023, the bank will continue to increase credit in terms of total volume; Structurally, we will continue to consolidate the development advantages in manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation, green credit and other fields, and continue to strengthen financial support for rural revitalization, inclusive finance, consumption and other fields.

"Up to now, ICBC's domestic RMB company loans have increased by more than 1 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, which is also a record high. The loan structure has also been further optimized, among which, the balance of loans for strategic emerging industries has exceeded 2 trillion yuan in the industry, and consumer loans such as residential housing, new energy vehicles, catering and tourism have grown rapidly. Zhang Wenwu said that since the beginning of this year, ICBC has continued to increase credit investment.

Zhang Xiaodong, deputy governor of Bank of China, said that the overall asset growth rate of the group is expected to remain at 8%~10% this year, maintain the steady growth of RMB loans, increase the vitality of RMB bond investment, and consolidate and expand the advantages of foreign exchange business. Among them, in terms of credit, it will increase investment in scientific and technological innovation, manufacturing, green and energy supply, private economy, as well as small and micro enterprises, rural revitalization, county economy and other inclusive fields.

Hao Cheng, Vice President of Bank of Communications, said: "From the beginning of the year to the end of February, the public credit has achieved both volume and price increase, the structure has been optimized, and the overall credit demand in the market is relatively strong, especially in the fields of infrastructure, manufacturing, and green development. ”

Against this background, the credit reserves of banks at the beginning of the year are relatively sufficient. "From February, our public project reserves (projects that have been approved but not yet issued) increased by 2% month-on-month, and retail growth was faster, such as mortgage loans increased by more than 6% month-on-month." Zhang Xuguang, vice president of the Agricultural Bank of China, said that due to strong demand, the bank's lending in the first two months hit a record high. As of the end of February, ABC's RMB loans increased by 30.2 billion yuan, an increase of more than 8912 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 2800.4%.

Last year, several banks mentioned an increase in the contribution of personal finance. This year, in the context of stimulating consumption, coupled with the need to stabilize interest rate spreads, banks will also increase the competition for the personal credit market.

Fu Wanjun, president of the Agricultural Bank of China, said that this year, the total amount of credit investment and the total amount of bond investment will be maintained steadily, and the structure will be precise to promote the stable growth of assets with average daily interest rates, while the proportion of high-interest assets such as credit and bonds will be continuously increased in the structure, and the personal credit business will be vigorously expanded. Zhang Xuguang also said that he will continue to increase loan support for personal housing mortgages and personal consumption.

From the perspective of term structure, a number of bank executives mentioned at the performance meeting that in order to cope with the narrowing of net interest margin, they will further adjust the structure of short-term and long-term deposits and reduce the price of high-interest deposits. In fact, for last year's net interest margin can maintain positive growth, Bank of China mentioned that the bank has increased demand deposit absorption last year, orderly reducing the scale of higher-cost products such as structured deposits and agreement deposits.

Liu Rong, chief financial officer of China Construction Bank, revealed at the performance meeting that after appropriate adjustment measures, some of the bank's products and businesses with relatively low yields have shown negative growth since the beginning of this year.

What are the joys and congs of asset quality

From the perspective of asset quality, five major banks improved their non-performing loan ratios last year, with ICBC and China Construction Bank now reaching the highest, both of which fell to 5.1% from 42.1% in the previous year. The NPL rate of PSBC increased by 38.0 percentage points from the previous year to 01.0%, but it is still the largest state-owned bank with the lowest NPL rate.

In terms of specific distribution, real estate is still one of the few areas where the non-performing rate rose last year. Among them, the non-performing rate of public real estate loans of Bank of China increased by 5.05 percentage points from 2.18% to 7.23%, continuing to rank first in the industry, the non-performing rate of real estate loans of Agricultural Bank of China also increased by 2.09 percentage points to 5.48%, and the non-performing rate of Industrial and Commercial Bank also increased from 4.79% to 6.14%.

Wang Jingwu, vice president of ICBC, said at the performance meeting that in risk management, quality control of real estate loans is one of the key points. Although the non-performing loan rate of the real estate industry increased last year due to the adjustment of the real estate market, the proportion of loans in the real estate industry of the bank was relatively low, and the risk was generally controllable, which would not have a large impact on the asset quality of the whole bank. Liu Jiawang, deputy governor of the Agricultural Bank of China, also said that the overall risk of asset quality in the real estate industry of the bank is controllable, and sufficient provisions have been made for related loans.

Based on the sustained macroeconomic recovery this year and the marginal improvement of risks in the real estate industry, the expectations of all banks for asset quality this year are generally more optimistic. However, Liu Jiandong, a risk director at Bank of China, said that risk resolution in the real estate sector requires a process, and the impact on asset quality will continue for some time. In addition, government-related assets are more obviously affected by real estate and the epidemic, and it is especially necessary to pay special attention to government business in places with weak fiscal strength and high debt, and risks in the field of foreign trade are also worthy of continued attention under the downward pressure of global demand and exports.

For personal housing loans, Zhang Xuguang, vice president of the Agricultural Bank, said that with the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, the current demand for mortgage loans is also improving. "It can be seen from our bank's reserves that by the end of February, the reserve of personal housing mortgage loans approved and undisbursed was 2.433 billion yuan, an increase of 31% month-on-month, and the monthly new receipts were 873.57 billion yuan, an increase of <>% month-on-month." Zhang Xuguang said.

At the performance meeting, a number of major banks also responded to the risk of prepayment in the field of personal housing loans. On the whole, each bank has taken a series of countermeasures to deal with the small scale of prepayment and controllable risks.

Author: Qi Ning