Surging News Reporter Ji Simin
After the Spring Festival, the multi-city real estate market has begun to warm, the signs of recovery in the property market have become more and more obvious, and the multi-city viewing and transaction volume data have risen significantly, but it remains to be seen how long this round of recovery supported by the just need and newly changed customer groups can be maintained.
Shanghai: Second-hand housing transactions are rising, and there is still room for negotiation
Taking Shanghai as an example, according to the monitoring data of Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, a total of 2,1 sets of second-hand houses were transacted in Shanghai in February, an increase of 9% month-on-month and 139% year-on-year, and the transaction amount was 52.613 billion yuan, an increase of 118% month-on-month and 63% year-on-year.
Yang Yulei, chief analyst of Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, believes that a total of 2,1 sets of second-hand houses were sold in February, which is equivalent to the transaction level after the lockdown was just lifted last year, indicating that the transaction is active. If the special transaction situation under the influence of the release of backlog demand after the unblocking of the year is excluded, the transaction volume in February is the highest in a single month in nearly a year and a half, indicating that the property market after the holiday is expected to gradually get on the right track. However, it believes that although the market is picking up so far, there are no signs of overheating.
"Combined with the data from January and February this year, the total number of units traded in the first two months of this year was about 1,2 sets, which is basically the same as the transaction volume in the first two months of last year, and the overall market is relatively stable." Shanghai real estate analysts said.
In February, the average total price of second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai was 2.317 million yuan / set, and the average transaction price was 39919,4 yuan / square meter, down 7% month-on-month and up 90% year-on-year. From the perspective of transaction structure, the proportion of rigid demand below 2 square meters has increased significantly, indicating that buyers who just need to enter the market after market confidence is restored. In terms of subregions, the top 3 regions in terms of trading volume in February this year were Pudong, Minhang and Baoshan.
In the broker's view, the increase in transaction volume does not mean that all listings are easy to sell, and it is still dominated by customers who are just in demand and improved.
Mr. Yu, the person in charge of Yindu Road Area of Pacific Housing Minhang Zhuanqiao, told The Paper that "the number of listings and customers in the recent period will be more than before, about 20%~30%, and the overall demand has been released." At present, the transaction volume of our area is similar to the average monthly transaction volume in June, July and August after the lifting of the lockdown last year, and the monthly transaction volume of the entire area is about 6 sets. ”
"The listing price is relatively stable at present, and from the transaction trend, the transactions are all houses that some landlords sincerely want to sell, and the price of such houses is usually not high, which is ideal. At present, they are basically customers who just need or have the need to improve, and those who have this demand will buy and sell and replace, and there are almost no customers who invest. ”
In Mr. Yu's view, the demand for this batch of house purchases is a concentrated release of the backlog of demand during the early epidemic and the Spring Festival.
At present, Shanghai's transaction volume has picked up, and in the eyes of brokers, the transaction cycle has been significantly shortened, but buyers are still relatively rational in entering the market.
"The previous transaction cycle will be relatively long, customers will spend about two months to repeatedly compare, the current transaction cycle is much shorter, basically 7 to 10 days such a cycle to make a decision." On the one hand, these customers themselves have the will and demand, which were previously delayed due to factors such as the epidemic or the Spring Festival, and will now accelerate their entry into the market; On the other hand, the market recovery will also have a certain impact on customer mentality. The aforementioned broker said.
The broker of the Weifang sector in Pudong, Shanghai, also said, "After the Spring Festival, the market has picked up significantly, and some customers who are considering their children's enrollment and buying a home for the first time have increased their sincerity." ”
However, the recovery in the market has also caused some buyers to worry about price fluctuations. Citizen Ms. Sun feedback, "Some time ago, I heard from the agent that the Shanghai property market is very good, and I also want to change houses, worried that the price will fluctuate greatly, but at present, some of the listings I pay attention to on my mobile phone have not been transacted, and the price has not been raised, and some have taken the initiative to drop by tens of thousands." ”
Lu Wenxi, a real estate market analyst at Shanghai Centaline, pointed out that although the transaction volume of second-hand houses has risen, there is still room for bargaining. At the same time, the number of new listings of second-hand houses has increased, and the number of new listings in a week is 12000,13000-<>,<> sets, with many listings, more market options, and the possibility of landlords asking for prices is not particularly strong. At the same time, the supply of new houses this year is still quite sufficient, and the list of new houses in the second batch has come out, and there are more options in the market.
Yang Yulei also mentioned that since the first half of 2021, after the price increase momentum was curbed, the market price has remained stable as a whole. In the short term, there has not been another general rise, mainly because the market slowed down last year, resulting in the current inventory of second-hand houses on the market is still at a high level, and at this stage it is still dominated by destocking, and homeowners also tend to take advantage of the recovery of market liquidity to complete the transaction as soon as possible, rather than raise the price.
National residential sales broke off a downward trend
In the eyes of industry insiders, behind the recovery of Shanghai's property market is the background of the national real estate market as a whole getting rid of the bottom range.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the year-on-year decline in the sales area of commercial residential buildings in January and February this year narrowed to 1.2%, and the sales increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which is the first cumulative year-on-year increase since last year. Looking at the long-term cycle, the sales scale in January-February this year is only lower than the same period in 3.
However, with the release of a wave of trading volume in February, it remains to be seen how long this round of recovery supported by just demand and newly changed customer groups can last.
Lu Wenxi pointed out, "In February, the speed of the release of second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai was indeed quite fast, so this sustainability remains to be seen." However, the volume of transactions in February did not rush to more than 2,2 sets, and the overall market was relatively stable. As a traditional Xiaoyang Spring in March, the data will not be bad, but it is also necessary to see that some trading volumes in the market in the past two weeks have been somewhat unmovable. At the same time, the pace of some new customer additions has slowed down in recent times compared to February and early March. So we think that after a wave of rapid rise, in fact, the market should still have a process of falling adjustment. ”
From the perspective of the national market, institutional statistics show that in the first two weeks of March, although the transaction volume remained at a historical high, from the perspective of growth rate, the transaction of new houses in key cities has shown a downward trend, and the growth rate of second-hand housing transactions is also narrowing. The sustainability of this recovery is beginning to show inadequacy.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center, in the 2023th week of 10 (February 2-March 27), 3,5 sets of new houses in key 10 cities were transacted, down 16941.5% from the previous month; In the 77th week (March 11-March 3), 6,3 new houses in key 12 cities were transacted, down 10.16895% month-on-month. The upward trend in new home transactions came to an abrupt end after entering March, and it has been declining for nearly two consecutive weeks.
In terms of second-hand housing, in the 2023th week of 10 (February 2-March 27), 3,5 sets of second-hand housing were transacted in key 10 cities, an increase of 22719.8% month-on-month, an increase of 1.11 percentage points from last week; in the 2th week (March 11-March 3), 6,3 sets of second-hand housing in key 12 cities were transacted, up 10.23810% month-on-month, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from last week. The recovery momentum of the second-hand housing market is stronger than that of new houses, and it still maintained its rally in March, but it is also weakening from the perspective of weekly growth, and the upward momentum is gradually showing its lack of strength.
There is still uncertainty among home buyers about the property market
At the same time, the large increase in the transaction volume of second-hand houses and the high number of listings coexist. As the main body of the recent recovery of the property market, the second-hand housing market can be described as seizing the major hot spots, and the second-hand housing in many cities is eye-catching. On the one hand, the transaction volume of second-hand housing has increased, and the market is hot, on the other hand, the number of second-hand housing listings has not decreased due to the increase in transaction volume, but has remained high. According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center, in January 2023, the ratio of second-hand housing listings to transaction volume in key 1 cities rose to 10, reaching the peak of nearly two years, and in February, with the strengthening of the transaction end, the ratio of listing volume to transaction volume dropped to 45, but it is still at a historical high level.
Zhuge Data Research Center pointed out that a large number of listings were listed, on the one hand, under the current policy relaxation, many owners want to list their listings to achieve trade-in and large for small as soon as possible, and on the other hand, the surge in listings also shows that some groups may continue to hold real estate is not strong, and the uncertainty of the future development of the real estate market increases. From the perspective of the past two years, under the interference of the black swan factor of the epidemic, coupled with the increase in economic downward pressure, layoffs in all walks of life, rising unemployment, residents' income levels have been greatly affected, and purchasing power is inadequate, so many property owners want to take advantage of this wave of market recovery to sell the housing on hand as soon as possible.
In addition, the sentiment index, which is a leading indicator of the market, has a certain forward-looking effect on house price changes. According to the recent key 50 cities sentiment index, the sentiment index in week 11 (March 3-March 6) ended three consecutive weeks of upward and began to decline.
According to data from Zhuge Data Research Center, the sentiment index of the key 11 cities in the 50th week was -0.59, down 0.06 from last week. In terms of cities, in the 11th week, only 5 cities such as Guilin, Guangzhou, Huizhou and Fuzhou maintained an upward trend, and the sentiment index of the remaining 45 cities all fell, among which, Sanya, Nanning, Shanghai, Zhuhai, Weihai, Tianjin, Zhongshan and other cities decreased significantly, and most of them were cities in the Pearl River Delta. Sanya's previous wave of market heat was mainly driven by the tourism boom after the epidemic was released, and the market began to return to its true performance after this wave of boom passed.
Zhuge Data Research Center believes that on the whole, this round of market recovery is menacing, multi-city property market is full of spring, Xiaoyang Spring is coming early, it is expected that the transaction scale in March is still at a high level, but whether the market heat in the second quarter can continue is still unknown, the current power is insufficient, on the one hand, the heat is supported by just demand, with the upward trend of the population structure, the scale of just demand has limitations. On the other hand, the supply scale of second-hand houses is much larger than the transaction scale, and customers can choose from most of the listings. Whether the market heat can be sustained depends on the scale of the release of improved demand, and the release of improvement demand depends more on the blessing of policies, such as lowering the threshold for buying a second home. (The Paper)