Per reporter Huang Wanyin Per editor Wei Wenyi
After the Spring Festival, the real estate market rebounded, especially the transaction volume of second-hand houses rebounded significantly.
According to Zhuge Housing, in the 11th week of this year (March 3-March 6), the transaction volume of second-hand residential buildings in the key 3 cities (Beijing, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Dongguan, Foshan) was 12,10 sets, up 23408.3% month-on-month, rising for six consecutive weeks. Although the volume fell by 75.6% last week (March 3-March 13) month-on-month, it is still at a historically high level.
According to data from the E-House Research Institute, the number of second-hand residential units transacted in eight key cities across the country (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Xiamen) in February was 2,8 units, an increase of 79438% month-on-month and 78% year-on-year. Looking at the historical data, the current transaction data has reached a new 96-month high, which is the highest monthly value since July 20. From this point of view, the second-hand housing transaction market is significantly better than the market expectation.
However, it is worth noting that while the transaction volume of second-hand houses in many places has rebounded, the number of second-hand housing listings has also continued to rise. According to the Lianjia platform, the number of second-hand housing listings in more than ten cities including Beijing and Foshan exceeded 2,10 sets in February, of which the number of listings in four cities, Suzhou, Nanjing, Tianjin and Chongqing, exceeded 4,15 sets.
A number of industry experts said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that some of the current listed owners are owners who have the need to replace houses, and they replace the properties under their names by "selling one to buy one" and then buying new houses for improvement. There are also some owners who bought at a high level earlier, in the current market activity, in order to sell the property replacement funds. "When the consumer side has not kept up in time, there will be a large number of listings for sale. The market transaction mechanism of second-hand housing is different from that of new housing, and the increase in the number of second-hand houses for sale cannot be viewed with the thinking of new housing inventory. ”
The number of second-hand houses listed in many cities exceeded 10,<> sets
After the Spring Festival, the favorable policies of the property market since last year have gradually fermented, and the backlog of housing purchase demand in the early stage has been gradually released, coupled with the relatively loose loan line in many cities since this year, the loan interest rate has been lowered, and some cities have relaxed restrictions on sales, etc., the popularity of house viewing has rebounded, driving the transaction of second-hand housing to rise for 6 consecutive weeks, and repeatedly refreshing the transaction peak of the past two years.
According to Zhuge housing statistics, last week (March 3-March 13) the transaction volume of second-hand housing in key 3 cities was 19,10 sets, down 22239.4% from the previous month, although the transaction of second-hand housing stopped rising and falling, but it was still at a historical high level.
According to the monitoring data of the Shell Research Institute, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Chongqing exceeded 2,1 sets in February, an increase of 55.59% and 50.07% year-on-year, respectively; The number of second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou increased from 1,2076 in January to 2,5821 in February; Changsha sold 2,4370 second-hand houses in February, a new high since August last year.
However, the reporter combed and found that at present, on the Lianjia platform, there have been more than 10,15 sets of second-hand houses listed in more than ten cities such as Beijing, Foshan, Hefei, Hangzhou and Guangzhou, of which the number of listings in four cities of Suzhou, Nanjing, Tianjin and Chongqing has exceeded 2,<> sets. Since entering February, the increase in listings in various places has been particularly obvious.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, told reporters via WeChat on March 3 that last year, second-hand housing transactions related optimization policies were frequent, and since August 22, Jinan, Shenzhen and other places have implemented the "transfer with charge" transaction model, and then many cities across the country have followed suit, which can significantly shorten the second-hand housing transaction cycle and reduce some transaction costs; At the end of September 2022, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued new policies, which can enjoy individual tax rebates for changing houses within one year, and the transaction cost of second-hand houses is further reduced; At the same time, some cities such as Chengdu and Changsha have issued policies to adjust the sales limit requirements. "The introduction of these optimization policies has promoted the activity of the second-hand housing market at both ends of supply and demand, and to a certain extent, has led to an increase in the number of second-hand housing listings."
Taking Shenzhen as an example, according to the statistics of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, the number of second-hand residential transfer units in Shenzhen in February was 2,2509 units, an increase of 80.4% month-on-month and 187.7% year-on-year; Second-hand residential transactions amounted to 23,6 sqm, up 80.0% month-on-month and 188.3% year-on-year. From the perspective of rise and fall, the number of units sold in all districts increased by more than 2% in February. By the end of February, the number of second-hand homes for sale in Shenzhen had risen sharply from January, reaching 2,2 units, approaching last year's high.
Looking at Hangzhou, according to data from the Shell Research Institute, the number of online signatures for second-hand housing in Hangzhou reached 2,7396 sets in February, an increase of 1% from January, which was similar to the number of online signatures in June after the "May 133" new policy last year, and the highest value in 5 months since June 17. However, the average price of second-hand housing online signatures in February fell by 6.2021% compared with January, in a "volume rise and price decline" trend.
In fact, "volume rise and price decline" is also a common phenomenon in the second-hand housing market in many major cities. According to data from Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department, the average price of second-hand housing online signing in Guangzhou in February was 2,29261 yuan / square meter, down 1.2% from January.
The differentiation of the second-hand housing market may intensify
Among the second-hand housing price indexes of 70 cities in the country compiled by the China Index Institute, only 2 cities such as Chengdu, Beijing and Shanghai showed a year-on-year increase in the price index in February, and the second-hand housing price indexes of the rest of the cities fell year-on-year.
The "volume rise and price decline" in many cities is fundamentally a portrayal of the intensification of the differentiation of the second-hand housing market. According to data from Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, the average total price of second-hand residential units in February was 2.682 million yuan, down 26.9% from the previous month. From the distribution of the total transaction price segment, the transaction of second-hand houses in the price range of 2.350 million to 500 million yuan accounted for 24.5% in February, the largest increase; The transaction volume of 250.350 million to 18.2 million yuan accounted for 6.3%, down <>.<>%, the most obvious decline.
Chen Wenjing added that the difference between second-hand housing in supporting resources, transportation resources, housing age, etc. is more intuitively reflected in the transaction price, second-hand housing with convenient transportation and high-quality supporting resources is more favored by buyers, while housing with weak location and supporting resource advantages has received less attention, and the differentiation of the second-hand housing market may continue.
The rapid growth of second-hand housing listings in the short term is also one of the manifestations of the current market recovery. Before the Spring Festival, the market performance was sluggish, the demand for some squeezed in the market began to be released, and the recovery of the property market also strengthened the willingness of buyers and sellers to trade.
"The increase in the number of second-hand housing listings is a process of market recovery, when the market is expected to improve, some second-hand housing industry mainly improves the replacement of houses, it is necessary to sell first and buy later, when the consumer side has not kept up in time, there will be more houses for sale." The increase in the number of listings should also be combined with the change of the listing price, the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute shows that the current listing price of second-hand houses is generally stable, and the listing price of some cities with better markets has risen slightly, not a large-scale price reduction. ”
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, pointed out to reporters through WeChat analysis on March 3, "In the medium and long term, with the release of some urban sales restrictions or the expiration of sales restrictions, new houses enter the second-hand housing market, and the second-hand housing market will inevitably enter the process of expansion, which is the performance of China's real estate entering the stock era." The market transaction mechanism of second-hand housing is different from that of new housing, and the increase in the number of second-hand houses for sale cannot be viewed with the thinking of new housing inventory. ”
Chen Wenjing believes that in the short term, under the continuous optimization of policies, the number of second-hand housing listings in key cities may remain at a high level, but it is worth noting that with the release of the backlog of housing demand in the early stage of second-hand housing, the future market activity may decline, which is expected to weaken the willingness of some owners to list to a certain extent.