From January to February 2023, almost 174.4 thousand mortgage loans totaling 652.2 billion rubles were issued in Russia. Compared to the same period in 2022, the indicator decreased by 22.7% in quantitative terms and by 18.5% in monetary terms. This is evidenced by the materials of the BCI "Scoring Bureau".

One of the main reasons for the observed decline in demand for housing loans in the country was the rush increase in real estate prices in the past few years. This opinion in an interview with RT was shared by the Vice-President of the International Academy of Mortgage and Real Estate Irina Radchenko.

"The rise in the cost of housing that has occurred since 2020 was largely not market or economic, but speculative. Due to the increased uncertainty, many people began to invest their savings in square meters more actively, as a result of which apartment prices grew much faster than the incomes of the population," Radchenko explained.

However, in her opinion, in 2023, as the volume of mortgage issuance decreases, the cost of real estate in Russia will gradually return to the pre-pandemic level. At the same time, as the expert emphasized, it is necessary to make an adjustment for inflation, as well as changes in exchange rates and prices for building materials.

"That is, if in 2019 a square meter of housing, for example, in Moscow, cost about 150 thousand rubles, then by now it has risen in price to an average of 250 thousand rubles. Taking into account inflation, rising prices for building materials and the changed ruble exchange rate at the end of this year, the cost may drop to about 200 thousand rubles, "Irina Radchenko suggested.

Against the background of a general drop in citizens' interest in buying housing, Russian banks began to gradually reduce mortgage rates. According to the company "DOM.RF", in mid-March, the average market interest on a loan for the purchase of an apartment in a new building fell to 10.99% per annum. The value was the minimum since the end of 2022.

It should be noted that usually financial organizations closely monitor the change in the key rate of the Central Bank and, on the basis of decisions taken by the regulator, independently determine the level of long-term interest on their products. We are talking about both deposits and loans, including mortgages.

At the same time, for six months now, the Central Bank has continuously kept the key rate at 7.5% per annum. Moreover, the leadership of the Bank of Russia does not exclude the possibility of raising the current bar if inflation begins to grow in the country. However, according to Irina Radchenko, banks are not now interested in a serious increase in the cost of mortgages and therefore can continue to carefully reduce their rates to maintain demand.

"Now the key rate is 7.5%, and this is the real cost of borrowed money in the country. It is believed that the margin of banks should be approximately 2%. That is, 9.5% is still the level to which financial organizations should strive in order to maintain demand for mortgages. Moreover, banks are in conjunction with developers for project financing and do not want developers to have problems with the sale of objects, "the expert added.

Incentives with benefits

To a certain extent, the interest of citizens in buying housing is still fueled by various programs with state support, experts say. First of all, we are talking about preferential and family mortgages, which today account for the bulk of housing loans issued in the country.

"Preferential programs still provide more than 70% of all mortgage issuances. Had these initiatives not taken place, the construction sector could have faced great difficulties. So they continue to play their stimulating role, although after the rise in housing prices, the effect of these programs, of course, has become less than it was initially, "Alexei Fedorov, an analyst at TeleTrade, told RT.

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  • © Ramil Sitdikov

Recall that within the framework of a preferential mortgage today, all residents of the country have the opportunity to issue a loan for the purchase of real estate at a reduced rate of 8% per annum. In addition, families with one child born in 2018 and later, as well as parents who have at least two children under the age of 18, can take a housing loan at 6% (5% for the Far Eastern Federal District at the birth of a child from January 1, 2019).

Both programs provide for the issuance of a mortgage for the purchase of finished housing from a developer or an apartment in an object under construction, for the construction of a private house on their own or under a contract, as well as for the purchase of a land plot for the construction of dachas, cottages or townhouses. At the same time, a family mortgage allows you to buy a secondary for residents of the Far Eastern Federal District.

You can take a preferential or family mortgage when buying real estate worth up to 12 million rubles in the Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations and up to 6 million rubles in other regions of the country. At the same time, citizens can take loans in the amount of up to 30 million and 15 million rubles, respectively, but the subsidized rate will apply only to amounts up to 12 million and 6 million.

"For example, if you want to take a loan (under the family mortgage program in the region. - RT) in the amount of 10 million rubles for 20 years, then you can get 6 million rubles at a rate of 6%, and another 4 million rubles at a rate on market terms (10.99% - RT)," DOM.RF explained.

It is curious that the banks themselves often issue such loans at a lower interest rate than it appears in the programs. So, it is now possible to issue a preferential mortgage at an average of 7.63%, and a family mortgage at 5.59% per annum.

Under the terms of programs with state support, the reduced interest will be valid for the entire term of the loan. The difference between the market and preferential rates is reimbursed to banks by the state.

Percentage zeroing

Although interest on preferential mortgage programs today remains noticeably lower than the market, developers have recently begun to increasingly offer buyers housing loans at near-zero rates. So developers are trying to support demand and quickly sell already built facilities, said Artem Deev, head of the analytical department of AMarkets.

"Last year, almost 103 million square meters of housing were put into operation in Russia, which was an absolute record. Such statistics may indicate that developers sought to complete objects faster in the last stages of construction, while there is demand, "the RT interlocutor added.

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  • © Natalia Seliverstova

At the same time, mortgages from developers at ultra-low rates can be risky both for borrowers and for the real estate market as a whole. This was previously stated by the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina. According to her, such schemes do not suit the regulator and in the near future the Central Bank will take measures to curb them.

"We will do this in order to, on the one hand, ensure financial stability, so that bubbles do not form, and on the other hand, it will be social protection, because according to all these schemes, in the end, people pay for this "holiday" from their wallets. Of course, we will fight these schemes," Nabiullina said at a press conference on March 17.

As Explained by Irina Radchenko, often when issuing mortgages at near zero rates, developers seriously overestimate the cost of the object itself. As a result, such apartments can be sold about a third more expensive than the market level.

"The main risk is that if the borrower can no longer repay payments, he will have to sell the apartment much cheaper than the market value. As a result, he will be left with debts, and even without housing. The regulator wants to avoid such risks," Radchenko concluded.