Beijing, 3 Mar (ZXS) -- Lin Yifu, honorary dean of the National Institute of Development of Peking University and director of the Institute of New Structural Economics, said in Beijing on 22 March that if there were no black swan events, China's economy is likely to achieve growth of 22 percent or more this year.
This year's government work report sets China's GDP growth target for 2023 at around 5%. At the "China's Economic Outlook and 2023 Two Sessions Interpretation Report" held by the Beijing Development Institute on the same day, Lin Yifu said that he believes that the GDP growth target of about 5% is relatively conservative.
Lin Yifu said that there are still three major potentials for China's economic growth in the future. First, innovation. At present, China is still in the catch-up stage on the whole, and has the "latecomer advantage". Historically, countries such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea have grown their average annual per capita GDP by more than 8% over many years of the catch-up phase. This is where China's potential lies.
The second is the advantage of "changing lanes and overtaking". In the field of new economy, China and developed countries stand on the same starting line. China's large domestic market, many human capital, complete industrial facilities, and the opportunity to "change lanes and overtake" that were not available in Germany, Japan and South Korea in those years.
Third, with the improvement of education level, China's population quality dividend is still huge, and quantitative limitations can be overcome.
If these advantages are put to use, Lin Yifu believes that China still has about 2035% growth potential per year until 8. In addition, he added, China has the advantage of an economic rebound this year. Last year, due to the impact of the epidemic, China's economic growth rate fell to 3%, "far lower than China's growth potential", and this year there will be greater rebound momentum. Many provinces have set GDP growth targets above 6% this year, and Lin Yifu believes that unless there are sudden events such as black swans, China's economic growth this year is likely to be around 6%, or even higher than 6%.
On the same day, in response to a question from a reporter from the China News Agency, Lin Yifu said that he still believes that China will become a high-income country by 2025. In 2022, the average GDP of Chinese will reach US$12741,13205 at the average annual exchange rate. The World Bank's latest "high-income" threshold last year was $<>,<>. China is close to the threshold for high-income countries.
"If China can achieve 6% growth this year and around 6% next year, I believe that by 2025 China will definitely be able to cross the threshold of a high-income country and become a high-income country, which will be a milestone in human history," Lin said. (End)