Although the current industry order is still in a healthy stage of development, some phenomena also reflect four deep-seated problems in China's dairy industry.
On March 3, at the "17 Dairy Frontier Science and Technology Exchange and High-quality Development Summit Forum", Li Shengli, director of Beijing Jingwa Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Center (hereinafter referred to as "Jingwa Center") and professor of China Agricultural University, analyzed this.
The so-called "some behavior" includes "pouring milk to kill cows". At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the price of fresh milk fell, and some farmers complained. Therefore, the dairy industry situation is highly concerned both inside and outside the industry.
Industry insiders also pointed out that in recent years, the economy has been down, dairy consumption has been weak, and the dairy industry has suffered losses, which is under great pressure. If you kill some low-yielding cattle, it will make the herd structure better and the yield higher; If you pour some bad milk, it is understandable.
There are four deep-seated problems in China's dairy industry
The deep-seated problems in China's dairy industry reflected by the aforementioned behavior, Li Shengli said, can be summarized in four:
The first is how to realize the combination of cultivation and breeding. In Europe, dairy farmers grow their own pastures, with small pastures supporting 10-20 or even more than 100 cows. On the one hand, the cost of forage is low and the milk price is competitive; On the other hand, manure can be returned to the field, achieving a virtuous circle. In contrast, the pastures built in China over the years require a large amount of circulating land, and the cost of breeding is very high. At the same time, a large number of high-quality pastures are imported from the United States and Australia, resulting in great cost pressure.
"In the future, China's large-scale pastures, if the state can give the policy of low-cost circulation of land, to achieve one cow with two acres of pasture, there will be no need to import roughage on a large scale, and the cost of breeding will naturally be reduced, which is definitely a benefit to the dairy industry." Li Shengli said.
The second is the phenomenon of China's dairy cycle. From the perspective of consumption structure, because nearly 80% of the dairy products consumed in China are liquid milk, and the sales time of liquid milk is short, once the consumption of dairy products is weak, then processing enterprises are unwilling to collect more fresh milk. This leads to a special cyclical phenomenon, which is manifested in the excess milk source after the Spring Festival every year; Entering the summer, milk production declines; By October, milk was in short supply again.
In contrast, in Europe and the United States, the dairy industry has upgraded from "drinking milk" in the past to "eating milk" today. They process 40% of raw milk into cheese. Due to the long shelf life of cheese, it is equivalent to extending the sales time of liquid milk. For example, in the United States and Germany, the per capita milk consumption reaches more than 200 kg per year, mainly eating 16 kg of cheese a year (1 kg of cheese is equivalent to 10 kg of liquid milk), which is equivalent to consuming 160 kg of liquid milk. The rest is liquid milk for daily drinking.
"In order to get rid of the phenomenon of the dairy cycle, that is, the excess milk source after the Spring Festival, the key is to adjust the consumption structure of dairy products." Li Shengli said.
The third is to strengthen dairy education and cultivate a large number of talents who love the industry, can endure loneliness, and take root in the pasture. Especially now many advanced machinery and equipment, more need talents.
The fourth is to strengthen the development of domestic mechanization and intelligent equipment.
"A lot of domestic agricultural machinery relies on imports, and the cost is very high." Li Shengli said that China's dairy industry is an emerging industry with a short development time and insufficient technical reserves. Considering the huge Chinese market, many enterprises at home and abroad are coveting this big cake, we should consciously cultivate domestic independent brands.
Need to focus on cultivating new dairy and meat combined cattle?
In recent years, China's dairy industry has developed steadily, the total milk output has maintained steady growth for many consecutive years, and the proportion of large-scale pastures and dairy cow yields have continued to increase.
At the aforementioned forum, Qiao Lv, deputy general manager of Beijing Sanyuan Food Co., Ltd., told the first financial reporter that compared with the huge population size, China's agricultural resources still have shortcomings, and the use of limited resources to improve the production efficiency of each cow, breeding is the most economical. The improvement of livestock and poultry production efficiency by seed industry is geometrically progressive.
He said that although domestic dairy cattle breeding and feeding technology has made rapid progress in recent years, the gap between domestic and foreign is objectively large, and breeding requires long-term work, which is a technical work that cannot be rushed and annoyed.
Currently, domestic dairy breeding is walking on two legs. On the one hand, independent breeding, in domestic pastures, select and breed the best cows, mate with the best bulls in the world, and then promote them through frozen semen; On the other hand, it exchanges genetic material with international exchanges and extensively exchanges genetic material with developed dairy countries.
Regarding dairy and meat combined cattle, it has been widely praised by farmers because of its advantages of strong stress resistance and roughage resistance.
At an industry conference held not long ago, Liu Guocheng, former executive vice minister of the Ministry of Agriculture, mentioned that considering that relying on a single Holstein breed is not economical, cultivating new dairy meat and cattle is a breakthrough for breed training. "It is of strategic importance and must be taken seriously."
Li Shengli said that in Europe and the United States, there are various varieties of dairy cows, and different breeds have different characteristics, especially cows with both dairy and meat, and the milk fat rate and milk protein are better than Holstein. In the future, China will change from "drinking milk" to "eating milk", that is, processing liquid milk into cheese, or specific infant milk powder, which is very advantageous.
In addition, he also mentioned that in Anshan City, Liaoning Province, there are pastures that replace Holstein cattle with dairy cattle, which is engaged in both breeding and processing, and the benefits are very considerable. When the entire dairy industry was facing a surplus and price crisis a while ago, the farm reaped benefits through post-processing.
"If you earn 1 yuan for raising cattle, you can earn 3 yuan 5 for processing, and if you have a supermarket, you can earn 5 yuan 5." The more the industrial chain goes to the back end, the higher the profit. Li Shengli said.
At the same time, from dairy to meat, the new type of dairy meat combined with cattle also has advantages.
Li Shengli said that when the price of beef is high, the elimination price of a small bull can be sold for 6500,5000 yuan, while the Holstein cow is only 700,650 yuan. At the same time, the weight of eliminated cows is generally more than 50 kilograms, while Holstein cattle are only 1000 kilograms, and <> kilograms more can be sold for <>,<> yuan more.
In Li Shengli's view, China needs to focus on cultivating new dairy cattle in the future. Considering the long cycle of dairy farming, it is necessary to lay out early and make long-term planning. If you want to cultivate this group, you have to be 4 years in advance.