"Banks of America have closed down one after another, and the dollars I just saved are 'not good'"

　　Chinanews.com, March 15th (Zhongxin Finance Gong Hongyu) With Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closing down one after another, the US banking crisis is continuing to simmer, and the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates have plummeted.

In this context, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is rebounding, and it has risen significantly in the past few days.

　　According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, from March 9th to 14th, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate was adjusted from 6.9666 to 6.8949, a continuous cumulative increase of more than 700 basis points, and regained the 6.9 mark.

　　The offshore market is even hotter.

On the 13th, the offshore renminbi rose 838 basis points to 6.8551 against the U.S. dollar, up more than 1,000 points during the session.

　　Under the fluctuation of exchange rate, "some are happy and some are sad." The dollar deposit products, which were still very popular last month, began to cool down.

Some depositors who just bought a large amount of US dollar certificates of deposit at the bank said helplessly, "For those who are attracted by high interest rates, the US dollar exchange rate will probably fall in the long run."

Renminbi and dollars.

Photo by Li Jinlei, Sino-Singapore Finance and Economics

The RMB exchange rate will be stable and strengthen

　　The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank may indicate that the Fed's tough rate hike will no longer be feasible.

The market generally believes that the bank failure will cause the Fed to slow down or stop raising interest rates.

This makes the future trend of the dollar, which has lost the support of interest rate hike expectations, even more uncertain.

　　He Ping, deputy dean of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University and head of the Department of Finance, told Sinonews Finance and Economics, “Currently, there are problems in the US banking system, which will not be alleviated for a while. Adding the impact on the U.S. economy, the support of the U.S. dollar will be further lost. From this point of view, the appreciation of the renminbi is inevitable.”

　　Huatai Securities pointed out that the liquidity of the US dollar has not become tense because of the Silicon Valley Bank incident.

The core driver of the short-term dollar trend is back to the Fed’s interest rate hike process. However, if there are subsequent systemic risks, the dollar may still strengthen in stages driven by risk aversion.

The economic cycles in China and overseas are misaligned, and the probability of domestic systemic risks is not high.

.

　　Wang Tao, head of Asian economic research and chief China economist at UBS, said that after the Fed stops raising interest rates, the U.S. economy will decline, and interest rates and yields will start to fall, while other major central banks (including Europe) have more stubborn inflation, and interest rates The decline may be later than that of the United States,

RMB.

Photo by Liu Yanghe, Sino-Singapore Finance and Economics

Dollar savers worry about

　　The recovery of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has also re-examined the very popular US dollar deposit products in recent times.

　　"Some customers have opened new accounts specifically to exchange and deposit U.S. dollars." Previously, according to media reports, driven by the continuous appreciation of the U.S. dollar, expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and higher deposit interest rates introduced by banks, many The customer "boards" the USD certificate of deposit.

At that time, the US dollar deposit interest rate of some banks could reach as high as 5.5%, which was much higher than that of RMB savings products.

　　However, as the collapse of the Silicon Valley bank continued to simmer, some customers worried that "the Fed's interest rate hike is no longer expected, the dollar will weaken in the future, and they will 'earn the interest rate and lose the exchange rate'."

　　Dong Ximiao, a researcher at China Merchants Union Finance, previously told the media that since the end of last year, the Fed’s interest rate hikes have shown signs of slowing down. In December last year, the rate hike rate was 50 basis points. One step is still possible to slow down.

In this case, considering the cost of foreign exchange, residents should be cautious about exchanging foreign exchange for the purpose of investment and financial management.

　　Regarding the current situation, He Ping said that dollar deposits are currently not a very good investment product overall.

(over)