What signals have been released by the two statements of "early repayment" in the supervision month?

　　Author: Android

　　Recently, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a special meeting, requiring banks to speed up the processing of backlog applications and provide early repayment services.

It is understood that this is the second time that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has expressed its position on early repayment this month. On February 9, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a symposium with some commercial banks with the People's Bank of China, requiring commercial banks to strengthen the concept of customer-centric, Do a good job in the early repayment service for customers according to the contract, and improve the service quality.

　　In addition, China Business News learned that the local Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau also held a similar meeting.

What signals did the regulatory authorities release when they expressed their position on "early repayment" twice within the month?

　　Recently, China Business News held a special live broadcast on housing loans, and invited Xue Hongyan, deputy director of Xingtu Financial Research Institute, Ma Hong, senior researcher of Zhixin Investment Research Institute, Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, and marketing director of Guangzhou Shell Mortgage Service Co., Ltd. Sun Xinchang discussed hot topics about mortgages together.

It is essentially a fund allocation behavior

　　After the Spring Festival this year, the demand for early repayment has soared, and the processing time limit of some banks has been extended. Many customers have reported that the queue time is too long or the appointment is full.

　　Regarding the difficulty of repayment in advance, the regulatory authorities have also noticed related phenomena.

On February 9, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission responded for the first time.

　　At the recent special meeting held by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the person in charge of the relevant department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission once again stated that at present, commercial banks are optimizing related financial services and doing a good job in handling early repayments.

Some banks have formulated special customer early repayment service plans and procedures, coordinated online and offline service channels, and ensured the predictability of repayment time.

Some banks have developed multi-channel service docking and set up special hotlines for early repayment of mortgages to provide convenience for customer consultation and business handling.

Some banks have deployed prepayment appointment functions on online channels such as mobile banking to improve service efficiency.

　　"Judging from market feedback and our understanding, the number of early repayments has increased significantly, the processing time has been shortened, and the difficulty of early repayment has gradually eased." The person in charge said.

　　The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that in the next step, it will work with relevant departments to continue to guide commercial banks to provide real estate financial services in accordance with the contract, smooth online processing channels, speed up the efficiency of approval processing, and ensure that customers travel less and process quickly.

　　"I personally understand the position of the regulator. The starting point is to protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. This kind of neutral operation does not involve encouragement or opposition." Xue Hongyan said that since the loan contract stipulates that the buyer can repay the loan in advance, And without setting more preconditions, then, when it is actually implemented, various conditions will appear, which will indeed damage the legitimate rights and interests of consumers, and will not comply with the loan contract.

　　Xue Hongyan believes that early repayment of mortgages is essentially a behavior of capital allocation, so when it becomes a social phenomenon, it shows that early repayment of mortgages is cost-effective in terms of capital allocation.

　　"From 2017 to 2020, the interest rate of new mortgages is generally above 5%, and the return rate of investment products on the market in the past two years is generally below 5%. Therefore, many people regard early repayment of loans as a kind of financial management. In addition , Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, many people have less confidence in the stability of future income, so they take the initiative to reduce their leverage pressure." Xue Hongyan said.

　　It is worth noting that recently, some unscrupulous intermediaries have frequently promoted the business of converting housing loans to business loans to customers, and even claimed that after the conversion, the interest on housing loans will be reduced by half.

In this regard, the above-mentioned special meeting held by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also issued a special risk warning to remind consumers to be vigilant against the temptation of illegal intermediaries, recognize the risks of illegally using business loans to replace housing loans, and protect their legitimate rights and interests.

　　Sun Xinchang said that most of the bank's operating loans have a short term, and the principal is repaid at one time when it expires. If the customer does not have a corresponding source of funds and cannot repay the principal in time, there may be a risk of capital chain rupture.

"Every year, the bank will re-approve the business loan, and make a judgment on whether to renew the loan based on the company's or individual's operations, liabilities, collateral evaluation, and litigation in the previous year. Corresponding changes have taken place, so the operating loan interest rate may be very low this year, but not necessarily next year." He said.

　　Mortgage interest rates are expected to fall further this year

　　Under the superimposed effect of previous policies, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan and other places have recently reported the news of real estate recovery.

　　In this regard, Ma Hong judged that the current real estate market has reached the bottom of this cycle. In the middle of the second quarter and even the second half of this year, the entire real estate market may slowly recover from a relatively sluggish state to a level of steady growth. channel.

　　Li Yujia believes that last year, due to the delay of some housing purchases and house replacement needs due to the epidemic situation, the superimposed market expectations have improved, resulting in the current market bottoming out. "I think this situation is sustainable at least in the short term. ."He said.

　　At the same time, Li Yujia said that if the follow-up market policies can further bail out, then the real estate market is expected to continue to recover, but from the current point of view, the power of "lagging demand" alone cannot bring about a reversal for the entire property market.

　　In fact, in order to encourage residents' willingness to buy houses and stimulate housing consumption demand, since last year, housing loan policies have been loosened on a large scale, from lowering mortgage interest rates and down payment ratios to increasing the maximum amount of provident fund loans and piloting second-hand housing "with collateral" Transfer”, relaxation of age restrictions for lenders, issuance of housing subsidies, innovative repayment methods, and discussions on extending the loan period and lowering the interest rate of stock mortgages are frequently beneficial.

So, is there still room for policy in the future?

　　Xue Hongyan believes that the current preferential policies for buying houses are more aimed at those who just need the first house, but now those who are able and willing to buy houses are often the improvement-oriented group of buyers who belong to the second house. "So, I think the relaxation policy for the second house is certain. Spatial aspects, such as down payment ratios, interest rates, etc., help to improve the matching of policies and home buyers.” He said.

　　Among them, as the most direct inclusive policy, many experts believe that the subsequent mortgage interest rate is expected to be further reduced.

Li Yujia believes that mortgage interest rates are still on a downward trend, at least in the medium term. From the perspective of stabilizing the property market, it is unlikely that the property market will experience the cycle of rising and falling in the past few rounds in the future.

　　"There is definitely room for downward adjustment." Xue Hongyan said that the mortgage interest rate is a very high-quality asset, and housing can be used as collateral, and the solvency of Chinese residents is still relatively high. Historically, the non-performing rate of mortgages is relatively high. However, among all kinds of loans, the current mortgage interest rate is relatively high, so it is unreasonable from an economic point of view.

　　"Behind this phenomenon is the policy intention to curb the rapid rise of house prices, but now the direction of the policy has changed, so I don't think it is necessary to continue to maintain relatively high punitive interest rates." He said.

　　Ma Hong also believes that whether it is the first or the second set of housing, the probability of further reduction this year is still too high, but the range of reduction will be relatively narrow compared with last year, "about 25 BP." He said.