Every reporter Zhen Sujing Every editor Wei Wenyi
"In chatting with colleagues, everyone thinks that the new housing market is getting better, and the overall Nanjing market is recovering."
On February 22, when talking with a reporter from "Daily Economic News" about Nanjing's property market after the Spring Festival this year, Zhu Yu, a salesperson in Nanjing of a leading listed real estate company, seemed very excited, "It shouldn't be called recovery, it should be called' Explosive growth'."
Judging from the monitoring data of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, Nanjing’s property market is showing signs of recovery after the festival. As of February 22, 5,263 new houses were subscribed in Nanjing’s property market this year, and 7,225 units were sold. Compared with the end of 2022, the sales volume increased by over 30%.
Especially with one week left in February, the sales volume has been the same as that in January.
Reproduce the grand occasion of thousands of people
Zhu Yu's project is located in Qixia District, Nanjing City. After the Spring Festival, their real estate launched an additional listing. On February 21, the project carried out a live broadcast lottery, and this time it was sold out without accident.
Zhu Yu shared in Moments, "The confidence of house buyers has returned, cherish the current window for buying a house."
According to Zhu Yu, "Last year (the developer's) discounts were being recycled. The projects near us could get 400,000 discounts in December last year, but now they can only give 180,000 yuan. The flow rate (monthly transaction volume) is also low." Much faster and selling well.”
At the same time, thousands of people bought houses by lottery again in popular areas in Nanjing. For example, Hexi Zhongdan Ruoyuan launched 148 houses, attracting nearly a thousand groups of house buyers to sign up, with a comprehensive winning rate of 14.86%.
The situation is the same as what Zhu Yu observed. During the interview, the reporter learned that in the circle of friends of real estate consultants and intermediaries, there are also posters sharing that different projects will soon withdraw discounts and sell at original prices.
Manager Lan is a broker of a national chain intermediary platform. He told reporters that after the Spring Festival, many developers’ discounts for new houses this year have been withdrawn. For example, Jinji Yayue’s previous discount of 2-4 points is now gone.
Talking about the recent market situation, Manager Lan eloquently said, "The current market conditions are very good and there are many transactions. Every day we have to line up at the signing center. Last year was the worst year in the market. The transactions were not as good as this year. Everyone is buying Do not buy up or down, the epidemic is over, and there is no need to worry about buying a house.”
Not only has the lottery sold out and the discounts have been withdrawn in the new housing market, but second-hand housing in Nanjing has also seen a significant recovery.
"Second-hand belts have continued to grow since the end of the new year, which is 2-3 times that of years ago." Manager Zhu, a staff member of a chain intermediary store in Gulou District, Nanjing, told reporters via WeChat on February 22, "Our platform lasted a week ago. The number of customers is about 60,000, but the number of fake customers received in the next year is about twice that of the previous year, so it has caused many homeowners to fluctuate in selling prices."
"Taking the area of Xufu Lane as an example, the latest transaction price is about 5% higher than the transaction price a year ago. The specifics depend on the owner's mentality. The current market transaction price is also steadily increasing. At present, the largest transaction volume in the market is new houses. , the second is the school district housing, and the third is the second-hand inventory housing.” Manager Zhu said.
According to the monitoring of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, second-hand housing in Nanjing also has the same upward trend after the Spring Festival. In 2023, more than 12,000 second-hand housing units have been sold in the Nanjing property market. According to the development of this situation, the transaction volume is likely to exceed the level at the end of 2022.
Continued efforts at the policy level
In fact, before the Spring Festival, Nanjing's property market has shown a trend towards the Soviet Union in terms of volume and price.
On February 16, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the sales price of new commercial housing in Nanjing in January was flat month-on-month, up 0.2% year-on-year; second-hand housing rose 0.5% month-on-month, down 2.6% year-on-year.
According to data from the China Index Research Institute, the average price of a sample of new houses in Nanjing in January 2023 was 24,712 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.54% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.01% month-on-month.
With house prices remaining stable in January, some real estate companies in Nanjing offered various discounts in terms of sales in order to attract home buyers and accelerate project de-sales.
In fact, since the end of last year, Nanjing has continued to introduce a number of heavy new policies. For example, from October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023, the sale of self-owned houses and the sale of existing houses within one year Taxpayers who re-purchase housing in the market will be given preferential tax refunds for the personal income tax they have paid on the sale of their existing housing; subsidized deed tax subsidies for phased housing purchases are allowed in districts.
At the end of December last year, Nanjing loosened its purchase restriction policy, and non-local residents can purchase a house if they provide proof of residence for half a year or more; in terms of loan restrictions, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial loans for residents to purchase a second house has been optimized and adjusted to no less than 40%, which is further reduced. Improve housing costs for sexual groups.
On February 3 this year, Nanjing issued a policy to support the withdrawal of housing provident funds to pay down payments for house purchases, reducing the pressure on residents' down payment capital turnover.
On February 18, the Nanjing Municipal Housing Security and Real Estate Bureau joined hands with the Jiangning, Lishui, and Liuhe District Real Estate Bureaus to launch a grand real estate exhibition at the same time. Dozens of exhibitors attracted many citizens with real discounts.
In addition, the Nanjing Real Estate Registration Center also issued a notice on optimizing Nanjing's real estate transaction registration service "closed on weekends".
Daming, an analyst at 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said in a written interview with reporters on February 22 that since 2022, the Nanjing property market has introduced a series of favorable policies to stimulate home purchases, and the policies have continued to increase. opportunity.
At the same time, Nanjing has a siphon effect on the surrounding population, coupled with the promotion of real estate companies, prompting home buyers to enter the sales office.
Whether the market can continue remains to be seen
Is the sudden strong recovery of the Nanjing property market a short-lived flash in the pan due to the market rebound, or a continuous rise under the market reversal?
On February 22, Cao Jingjing, general manager of the Index Business Department of the Middle Finger Research Institute, told reporters that the reason for the recent improvement in market activity is mainly due to the backlog of some demand during the epidemic last year, and the concentrated release of market demand after the year; After more than years of continuous adjustment, the demand for spontaneous recovery in hot cities has strengthened.
At the same time, many core cities have previously optimized regulatory policies, and as expectations improve, market activity has rebounded.
Taking Nanjing as an example, Daming Analysis believes that considering the impact of the Spring Festival in January, whether the current recovery momentum of the property market can continue requires further observation.
But on the whole, although the current property market is showing signs of recovery, it is also related to the low base at the end of last year.
If you look at the year-on-year data, the sales volume of new houses in the first two months of this year has fallen by nearly 40%, and compared with the same period in 2021 and 2020, there has also been a large decline.
In Daming’s opinion, although there are more people looking at houses in Nanjing’s current property market, sales offices and intermediary stores are also busy, and some hot properties even have a “number lottery” phenomenon with a low winning rate, but overall they are still well-received and sold. There is no explosive increase in volume.
Whether the real estate market in the market outlook can usher in a healthy market with long-term sustainable development depends on the expectation of the demand side turning optimistic.
Regarding the future trend of housing prices in Nanjing and the transaction situation, Daming believes that after the baptism of the downward cycle since the second half of 2021, real estate in popular areas in Nanjing has also shown differentiation. difficult.
As the property market adjusts into the deep water area, this phenomenon may be strengthened in the future.
"In terms of housing prices, with the withdrawal of rough price-limited housing from the stage of history, there is still room for housing prices to rise in high-quality real estate in some core areas, but the prices of new housing in most areas may be stable. The situation in residential housing is slightly less optimistic. With With the continuous growth of second-hand housing listings and the special attributes of new housing, the bargaining space for second-hand housing will be narrowed. As for the transaction volume, it is believed that the overall transaction volume of the property market this year will have a qualitative improvement compared with 2022."