The heat of the real estate market in many places such as Beijing and Shanghai has picked up, is the "Xiaoyangchun" coming?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, February 21st. Question:

　　China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji

　　The beginning of spring and the rain have passed one after another, and most parts of China bid farewell to the severe cold weather.

Along with the rise in temperature, there is also the heat of the real estate market in hot cities.

Recently, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other hot cities have successively exposed the news that the property market is heating up more than expected.

　　Sales offices in many places are crowded with people, and second-hand housing brokers are also busy.

Xiao Liu, an intermediary agent in Chaoyang District, Beijing, told a reporter from China News Agency that after the Spring Festival holiday, Beijing's second-hand housing market began to "destock".

Some "unsoldable" houses have also been traded out one after another, and the prices of houses with good layouts in some locations have begun to rise.

　　The data also supports this claim.

According to statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Institute, last week (February 13-19, 2023) there were 3,761 second-hand housing online signings in Beijing, and the transaction volume in the previous week was 3,190. This data is close to the transaction volume in January 2022. The scale of second-hand housing transactions has rebounded.

　　It is not only Beijing that is active in property market transactions.

According to the data provided by the China Index Research Institute, last week, the transaction area of ​​new commercial housing in Hangzhou was nearly 230,000 square meters, and the transaction volume of second-hand housing was 1,456 sets.

　　According to statistics from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association (hereinafter referred to as: Shenzhen Real Estate Association), last week, Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions recorded 881 sets, a growth rate of 12.4% from the previous month.

In 2022, the average weekly transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen will only be about 500 units.

According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Association, the number of second-hand housing recorded in Shenzhen has shown a continuous growth trend recently, and the market heat has picked up significantly.

Recently, the Shenzhen Real Estate Registration Center announced that the noon extension service will resume from February 13, 2023.

　　According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in the first half of February (1st to 15th), the average daily transaction volume of second-hand housing in 50 key cities in China increased by more than 70% compared with the first half of January.

In fact, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, in January, the price of new houses in 70 cities in China stopped falling for the first time in a year, and the property market continued to pick up.

　　Why has the recent property market shown a long-lost recovery trend?

Cao Jingjing, general manager of the Index Business Department of the China Central Finger Research Institute, analyzed in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that on the one hand, after the optimization and adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy in December last year, the short-term infection peaked, and then after the Spring Festival holiday, some demand was backlogged. On the other hand, after more than a year of continuous adjustments in the property market, the willingness to spontaneously recover demand in popular cities has strengthened; at the same time, many core cities have optimized real estate regulation policies, and market activity has rebounded as expectations improve.

　　Recently, the market-friendly real estate policy has continued to exert its strength to release reasonable demand for housing purchases.

According to the statistics of the Shell Research Institute, under the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first-home loan interest rate policy, the mainstream interest rates of first-home loans in 103 Chinese cities in February hit a new low since 2019, and the first-home loan interest rate was lower than the lower limit of the home loan interest rate (4.1%). Cities increased to 34.

Policies are constantly being adjusted.

Recently, Yangzhou City issued a new policy on the property market, canceling restrictions on housing purchases and sales of second-hand housing.

　　Can the recent recovery of the property market evolve into a round of "Xiao Yang Chun" in the property market?

　　Many experts believe that the current round of warming is only a partial phenomenon, and whether it can continue remains to be seen.

Cao Jingjing believes that from a national perspective, the weekly growth rate of new housing transactions in key 100 cities is relatively limited (a year-on-year increase of about 13% last week), and there is still no obvious sign of recovery overall.

The continuation of the current warming trend of the property market in hot cities still needs to be observed continuously.

She believes that if the warming trend of hot cities continues and market sentiment picks up further, some cities are expected to experience a small spring market, which in turn will drive the overall market to stabilize and recover.

What is more important now is to restore residents' confidence in home ownership. Only when residents' employment and income expectations improve can the real estate market truly emerge from the downturn.

　　The real estate market in hot cities is not heating up in an all-round way.

Taking Beijing as an example, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that the current Beijing market is far from hot.

From the perspective of market trends, the "basic line" for second-hand housing in Beijing is that the monthly transactions of second-hand housing have reached 15,000 units.

At present, it is possible to reach this "base line" from February to March.

But much of the market heat is driven by rising enrollment demand.

In January, the transaction volume of the Beijing property market only returned to the market average level in November last year. The current Beijing real estate market does not support a significant increase.

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