Since February, the market performance has been relatively flat, and in the past week, A-shares have experienced considerable adjustments.
In the midst of volatility, what should investors do next?
The Paper collected the views of 10 brokerages, and most brokerages believe that although the market has fluctuated recently due to external disturbances, the short-term overreaction will soon be corrected, and the upward trend of A-share shocks has not changed. It will provide a good opportunity to adjust and increase the position, and it is an opportunity to make another layout.
CITIC Securities said that since February, the theme hype has been high. In an environment of increasing external risk disturbances, the market has overreacted to disturbances due to unstable mentality.
With the reconstruction and upward revision of fundamental expectations, investors will re-build consensus, and short-term fluctuations will provide a good opportunity to increase positions.
"Although the rise in short-term overseas tightening expectations has led to a rebound in the US dollar and US bond interest rates, the pressure of a sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is limited. The certainty of domestic economic recovery within the year is relatively strong, and the bottom range of the market is supported. Phased adjustments are opportunities for re-layout." Huaxi Securities also pointed out.
Industrial Securities further pointed out that there is no significant risk of a callback in the mid-term of the market. Economic recovery, the macro background of loose policies, and the subsequent gradual recovery of funds will provide support for the market, and the overall is still in a positive and promising window period.
In terms of allocation, the growth sector is still the direction that many institutions have been optimistic about.
CITIC Securities recommends investors to continue to stick to the growth depression.
Haitong Securities also believes that growth will be stronger for the whole year.
However, China Securities Securities reminds investors that in the short term, they need to avoid overheating concept transactions and focus more on the fundamental upward direction.
In the short term, the technology sector has reached a relatively high point of trading enthusiasm, especially the trading enthusiasm of popular concept indexes such as AIGC has reached the warning range.
CITIC Securities: Short-term fluctuations provide a good opportunity to increase positions
Since February, the small-cap growth index has risen significantly, and the theme has been highly hyped. In an environment of increasing external risk disturbances, the market still continues the thinking inertia of last year's black swan-prone environment, and the instability of mentality has led to overreaction to disturbances.
Looking forward to the market outlook, external disturbances will not constitute a substantial impact. With the reconstruction and upward revision of fundamental expectations, investors will re-build consensus, and short-term fluctuations will provide a good opportunity to increase positions.
Specifically, on the one hand, the short-term and short-term trading characteristics indicate that the market consensus has not yet been formed, and the unstable market mentality has amplified the impact of recent disturbances.
In fact, the stickiness of U.S. inflation pushes up the expectation of raising interest rates, but it does not change the trend of ending the U.S. dollar’s interest rate hike; internal and external macro liquidity disturbances increase, but the real impact on market liquidity is limited.
On the other hand, although the domestic macro-high-frequency data structure is differentiated, it still continues the normal pace of recovery, and the recovery of the real estate boom will be gradually transmitted, increasing the flexibility of economic recovery.
At the same time, policy expectations have become more rational, the endogenous recovery momentum of the economy has strengthened, and there is still room for upward revision of fundamental expectations. The market will re-condense consensus, and the short-term overreaction will soon be corrected.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors continue to stick to the growth depression and increase the allocation priority of the semiconductor and Xinchuang sectors.
CICC: Shock and volatility may continue
Looking ahead, the overall volatile trend of A-shares may continue for a period of time. After the fundamentals are substantially stabilized and recovered, the market is expected to resume its upward trend.
Since February, the market performance has been relatively flat, especially in the past week. The recent market trend reflects the previous policy expectations and the improvement of economic activities driving the market recovery. Investors have begun to pay more attention to the height of future economic recovery.
Therefore, in this context, combined with the recovery of the previous valuation level, in the period when the short-term market may lack obvious positive catalysts, A-shares as a whole may continue to fluctuate.
However, although the market may lack obvious upward catalysts in the short term, considering that the overall market valuation is not expensive and investors' confidence in the economy is gradually recovering, there is no need to be too cautious in the current position. The medium-term opportunities in the market still outweigh the risks.
In terms of allocation, investors are advised to pay attention to three main lines of investment: First, consumer food and beverages, home appliances, light industry and home furnishing, etc.
The second is high prosperity, technological software and hardware supported by policies, and high-end manufacturing.
The third is medicine, the Internet, etc.
China Securities Investment Securities: short-term need to avoid overheating concept transactions
Since the end of October 2022, A-shares have reflected a series of optimistic expectations. With the realization of economic normalization expectations, the recent revision of optimistic expectations of overseas and stimulus policies has led to strong demand for some profitable funds, so the market has entered a consolidation period .
Next, different from the trading environment dominated by "strong expectations" in January and February, as the resumption of work in various industries returned to normal levels after the festival, the market will usher in economic growth after the performance vacuum period from March to April. Data verification, the normalization of resumption of work and production, and the disclosure period of corporate quarterly reports will increase the attention to the realization of the prosperity.
In terms of allocation, investors are advised to pay attention to three main lines: First, repair the large-scale consumption with the most flexibility, especially high-end consumption with a better recovery trend.
The second is new energy and military industries, which are still booming.
The third is that in traditional industries, electricity with downward cost pressure, and infrastructure and city commercial banks with stable performance.
However, investors need to avoid overheating concept transactions in the short term, and the allocation should focus more on the fundamental upward direction.
In the short term, the technology sector has reached a relatively high point of trading enthusiasm, especially the trading enthusiasm of AIGC and other popular concept indexes has reached the warning range.
Haitong Securities: This round of market is expected to usher in the third general rise
The rally since the end of October 2022 has been driven by a shift in macro expectations, which themselves are also being adjusted based on reality.
At present, macro expectations have gone through three stages, corresponding to consumption + real estate chain, new energy + TMT, and TMT rotation in the A-share market.
Specifically, from the end of October to the beginning of December 2022, the optimization of epidemic prevention and real estate policies has raised market expectations for economic and consumption recovery, with consumption and real estate leading the growth.
From the end of December 2022 to the end of January 2023 before the Spring Festival, policies to expand domestic demand and the peak of the epidemic will continue to boost consumer confidence, and frequent industrial policies will boost expectations for growth sectors.
Since February this year, macro expectations have entered a verification period, consumption recovery continues, and technological innovation has catalyzed the TMT market.
With reference to the first wave of rising in early 2019, the style is value first, then growth, and then general rise. Driven by fundamentals and capital, this round of market is expected to usher in the third general rise.
Compared with history, there is still a gap in time and space for this rise, and the industry may be in balance in the short term.
Looking at the whole year, the growth is stronger, especially the TMT represented by the digital economy, the structural highlights of new energy, and medicine.
GF Securities: Highly improved and flexible industries dominate
The duration of the A-share spring market in 2023 is close to the historical average, and the range increase is lower than the historical average.
After experiencing the first stage of "downward risk premium", the market will enter the second stage of "confirmation of ebb and flow data", focusing on two observation clues: first, how strong is China's high-frequency recovery; second, US inflation and growth expectations.
This is also the main reason for the recent enlargement of market divergence.
In terms of style, industries with high improvement elasticity still outperform industries with high prosperity.
Whether the current economy is in the verification stage of "strong expectations" or the currency and credit environment, they all continue to point to the dominance of high-improvement and elastic industries.
Looking forward to the future market, it is recommended to pay attention to medical devices, innovative drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, advertising and marketing, and gold and jewelry in the post-epidemic recovery chain; the real estate chain is generally undervalued, and you can focus on real estate, decoration and building materials, and home appliances; big finance is still under valuation At the bottom, you can focus on insurance and securities.
In addition, it is recommended to focus on some sectors whose growth prosperity is expected to improve in 2023, such as general automation, computer, and semiconductor design.
Industrial Securities: still in a positive window
After the recent restoration of the index beta, the market has entered a state of rapid style rotation under the activeness of the two financings and "hot money".
At the same time, after the congestion of multiple sectors rose to a high level, the market also adjusted accordingly.
In the medium term, there is no significant risk of a callback in the market, and the overall situation is still in a positive window: the macro background of economic recovery + policy easing, and the subsequent gradual recovery of funds will provide support for the market.
Therefore, there is no need to panic over short-term adjustments, and it is recommended to look for opportunities in the structure.
Looking forward to the market outlook, in the short term, it is recommended to actively explore opportunities for supplementary growth at low prices, such as energy storage, military industry, and electric power.
In the mid-term, it is recommended to continue to follow the two clues of high elasticity and high growth rate: on the one hand, focus on the direction of high elasticity that the current outlook is still at a low level, but this year is expected to reverse the predicament, and valuations and holdings are at low to medium levels, such as Xinchuang , innovative drugs, semiconductors, consumer electronics, 5G, media, etc.
On the other hand, for the growth sectors whose current prosperity is already at a high level and have been reflected in the high position, focus on subdivided industries whose growth rate can continue to rise and the valuation is reasonable, and grasp the high growth subdivision direction and individual stock α opportunities, such as Wind power, photovoltaics, auto parts, etc.
Tianfeng Securities: There will still be better theme and track investment opportunities this year
Considering the position of the domestic cycle, as well as the recovery of economic vitality after the impact of the epidemic weakens, and the start of the construction season, the current domestic stage may gradually transition from the stage of active destocking to the early recovery stage of passive destocking.
However, since the overseas cycle is still at an absolute high level, it will take time to digest it. The first half of this round of recovery transactions will most likely be weakened by the overseas cycle (the negative impact on the export side has been gradually reflected from the second half of 2022).
In the previous stages of switching from active destocking to passive destocking in China, the market will carry out transactions in anticipation of recovery, which is manifested as a general rise led by the broader market and pro-cyclical sectors.
Combined with the experience of the past few rounds of recovery ranges, after the expected transactions at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the probability of a sharp rise at the index level is not high.
However, with the market sentiment heating up, there will still be better investment opportunities in themes and tracks this year.
Specific to the theme direction, we can pay attention to new technology-driven ChatGPT, perovskite, integrated die-casting, policy-driven new national system (military industry, chip), population aging, digital industrialization, and the evolution of the theme of Xinchuang, Industrial digitalization, medical infrastructure and localization.
Zhongtai Securities: Technology and small and medium market capitalization are relatively dominant
Since February, due to the policy entering the observation period, January PMI and social financial data show that the economic recovery structure is uneven, and foreign capital inflows have also weakened under the rebound of the US dollar and US debt, and some funds have taken profits.
The endogenous logic of the recent market adjustment is that the market has different opinions on the pace of overseas monetary policy, the quality of domestic economic recovery, and the policy expectations of the two sessions: for the domestic economy and policies, February was in a vacuum of macro data, and before the two sessions, it was in a growth period. The window period of quantitative policy; Regarding the pace of overseas monetary policy, the data of CPI and PPI in the United States in January last week once again confirmed that the stickiness of inflation exceeded the market's previous optimistic expectations.
Looking ahead, the structure is similar to that of the third quarter of last year. Military industry, technology, small and medium-sized market capitalization, and public utilities with high dividends are relatively dominant, while Hang Seng Technology, 50, and weight, which are heavily foreign invested, are relatively weak.
Among them, the profit growth of public utility companies has high certainty, the industry has long-term investment potential, and the current defensive attributes are prominent.
In addition, as the U.S. dollar ushers in a weekly level rebound, it may affect the inflow of A-share capital into the north, and in the current vacuum period of consumption recovery data verification, consumption and other northward capital holdings may fall into a split market.
Guohai Securities: The factors for the continued correction of market valuations are not yet available
Looking ahead, against the background of domestic economic stabilization and recovery, the current macro liquidity and market risk appetite are relatively stable, and the factors for continued valuation corrections are not yet available.
In terms of configuration, TMT is expected to become the main line throughout the year. The superimposition of loose liquidity and phased industry trends is a common feature of the TMT market in 2019 and early 2020. The impact of risk appetite is obvious.
On the whole, the excess return of the TMT sector in this round is still far from that in 2019 and early 2020. Except for computers, other tracks are at the bottom, and short-term adjustments may or may not change the medium-term optimistic trend.
Huaxi Securities: Phased adjustment is another opportunity for layout
Since February, the A-share market has entered a period of shock and consolidation. On the one hand, early investors rushed to "domestic recovery" and "overseas tightening slowdown", market valuations quickly recovered, and some profit-making funds tended to take profits.
On the other hand, the market has also been disturbed by geopolitical events.
Looking forward to the market outlook, although the rise in short-term overseas tightening expectations has led to a rebound in US dollar and U.S. bond interest rates, the pressure on the sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is limited. The certainty of domestic economic recovery within the year is relatively strong, and foreign capital is still a net inflow trend in the medium term. The bottom range of the market is supported.
Looking back, the trend of the A-share index fluctuating upwards has not changed, and periodic adjustments are opportunities for re-layout.
In terms of allocation, investors are advised to pay attention to pharmaceuticals, food and beverages in the consumer sector.