As the specialist noted, on February 23, the final data on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be published.
“If they come out with a deviation from the forecast, the value of the US dollar may change dramatically, which will automatically affect oil quotes, since oil is quoted in dollars on the world market,” Chernov said.
According to him, if the US GDP grows above forecasts, then oil will become cheaper, if it is lower, it will rise in price.
He noted that the volatility of quotes will depend on how much the data "deviate from forecasts."
“However, for oil prices, this is rather a short-term factor of influence, and among the long-term ones there is an expectation of an increase in demand from China and a reduction in oil production in Russia.
This week, the IEA raised its estimate of oil demand in 2023 by 94,000 bpd, demand is expected to increase by 900,000 bpd from the opening of the Chinese economy, and OPEC lowered its forecast for the growth of oil production in countries outside the organization.
But as long as the ratio of supply and demand in the market does not change, quotes are likely to continue trading in the range of $80-90 per barrel of Brent,” the analyst concluded.
Earlier it became known that the oil price ceiling strengthened the Russian economy and had a negative impact on the economies of Western countries.